Apple Stock Forecast 2025: First to Hit $4Tr Market Cap?

It has certainly been a mixed year for investors in Apple (AAPL), with the tech giant experiencing a variety of highs and lows.

The combination of strong quarterly figures and the general enthusiasm for the sector saw the AAPL stock price hit an all-time high closing price of $236.48 in October 2024.

But it hasn’t all been plain sailing. Shares have since lost some of this sparkle, while famed investor Warren Buffett has recently cut his stake in the business.

The company has endured weak sales in China, is being forced to pay back billions of dollars in tax aid, and has been accused by analysts of being late to the AI party.

The big question is: What happens now? Will Apple’s projected stock price rise over the coming months or has it reached a temporary ceiling?

In our Apple stock forecast 2025, we recap its quarterly results, assess the recent product launches, and look at what analysts believe will happen to the Apple stock price.

Table of Contents Table of Contents

1. Key Takeaways
2. Summary of the Latest Apple Stock Predictions
3. Apple Stock Analysis
4. Latest Apple News
5. Apple Outlines Risks It Faces
6. Have Previous iPhones Affected The AAPL Stock Price?
7. Apple Stock Forecast 2025: What Do The Analysts Say?
8. Apple Stock Predictions: Where Will The Price Go Next?
9. The Bottom Line: Should I Invest in Apple?
10. FAQs
11. References

Show Full Guide

Table of Contents

1. Key Takeaways
2. Summary of the Latest Apple Stock Predictions
3. Apple Stock Analysis
Show Full Guide
4. Latest Apple News
5. Apple Outlines Risks It Faces
6. Have Previous iPhones Affected The AAPL Stock Price?
7. Apple Stock Forecast 2025: What Do The Analysts Say?
8. Apple Stock Predictions: Where Will The Price Go Next?
9. The Bottom Line: Should I Invest in Apple?
10. FAQs
11. References

Summary of the Latest Apple Stock Predictions

Here, we examine the AAPL price targets of analysts and algorithmic forecasters to give an idea of what investors may experience over the coming years.

Apple Stock Analysis

An important part of our Apple stock forecast is looking at what has happened to the  AAPL stock price over the past year.

The good news for investors is that the share price has soared 26% from $181 to $222.72 in the year to November 6, 2024.

However, this doesn’t tell the full story, as AAPL stock actually hit its all-time high closing price of $237.49 last month, according to MacroTrends.

On the downside, it’s also been as low as $164.07 over the past 52 weeks. Since mid-April, the stock has risen 35%, illustrating the volatility.

The stock price performance over the past five years has been more impressive, with a 246% rise from $66 to $222.72, as the market closed on November 6, 2024.

So, what is the outlook for Apple stock? Well, a key element is the developments that have taken place over the last few months.

Latest Apple News

Warren Buffett Reduces Stake

Warren Buffett, the respected investor and chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, has reduced his stake in Apple.

The decision of the businessman, dubbed the ‘Sage of Omaha’ for his past investing successes, was revealed in recent SEC filings.

Record September Quarter Revenue

Apple reported revenue of $94.9 billion for the fourth quarter ended September 28, 2024, which was 6% up year-over-year. The diluted quarterly earnings per share was $0.97.

According to Tim Cook, Apple’s chief executive, it had been a successful period for the company, which resulted in a new September quarter revenue record.

Luca Maestri, Apple’s chief financial officer, said the “record business performance” drove nearly $27 billion in operating cash flow, allowing more than $29 billion to be returned to shareholders. He said:

“We are very pleased that our active installed base of devices reached a new all-time high across all products and all geographic segments, thanks to our high levels of customer satisfaction and loyalty.”

Apple’s board of directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.25 per share of the company’s common stock. The dividend is payable on November 14, 2024, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on November 11, 2024.

New Products & Apple Intelligence

As far as other Apple news is concerned, the company also recently unveiled the latest products at an event at its headquarters in Cupertino, California.

This included the next generation of smartphones that are packed full of artificial intelligence features, as Apple fights for supremacy in a fiercely competitive AI market.

In the latest statement, Tim Cook said: “During the quarter, we were excited to announce our best products yet, with the all-new iPhone 16 lineup, Apple Watch Series 10, AirPods 4, and remarkable features for hearing health and sleep apnea detection.”

These models will feature the faster and more efficient A18 and A18 Pro chips, making them “the most advanced and capable” iPhone models ever.

For example, users will be able to create the movies they want to see by typing a description, while a new Clean Up tool will remove unwanted objects in the background of a photo.

In addition to the unveiling of the latest iPhones, AirPods, and Apple Watches, the company’s AI platform was announced in June 2024.

Tim Cook wrote on X:

Welcome to the new era of iPhone!

Built for Apple Intelligence, the iPhone 16 lineup delivers a powerful, personal, and private experience right at your fingertips. And with the new Camera Control, you’ll never miss a moment. pic.twitter.com/zBsx9xOBl1

— Tim Cook (@tim_cook) September 9, 2024

Separately, the company said its Apple Watch Series 10 will be “thinner than ever” and feature an advanced display, faster charging, and water depth and temperature sensing.

Meanwhile, Apple’s AirPods Pro 2 will include features such as hearing tests and hearing aid features.

European Commission Unpaid Tax Ruling

Unfortunately, not everything has gone in Apple’s favor this year. In September, it was ordered to pay €13bn (£11bn; $14bn) in unpaid taxes following an eight year battle.

The ruling was made by the European Court of Justice that upheld a 2016 decision by the European Commission that Ireland had granted Apple unlawful aid.

In a statement, Margrethe Vestager, the EC’s executive vice-president, branded it a “big win for European citizens.”

“It is a win for the Commission,” she said. “It is also a win for the level playing field in the Single Market, and for tax justice.”

The EC concluded in 2016 that Ireland’s tax benefits to Apple were illegal under EU State aid rules because it allowed the company to pay substantially less tax than other businesses.

However, the case was referred to the Court of Justice a year later as Ireland had not recovered any of this aid.

Apple Outlines Risks It Faces

In its latest annual report, Apple admitted that future products may not prove to be as profitable as popular sellers of the past.

It stated: “New products, services and technologies may replace or supersede existing offerings and may produce lower revenues and lower profit margins, which can materially adversely impact the Company’s business, results of operations and financial condition.”

The company pointed out that it was continually introducing new developments due to the “highly volatile and competitive nature” of the markets and industries in which it operates.

It acknowledged its success depended on factors such as market acceptance, timely development, and the company’s ability to manage the associated risks.

Have Previous iPhones Affected The AAPL Stock Price?

The next stage of our Apple stock prediction 2025 looks at how the launch of previous iPhone models has affected the AAPL stock price.

The smartphone continues to be the company’s crown jewel, as illustrated by the most recent fourth-quarter data.

Source: Apple

It also influences the stock price. According to an analysis by AJ Bell, Apple’s shares rose 29% in the six months leading up to this year’s annual new products unveiling.

This is substantially ahead of the 21% gain that has preceded prior launches and suggests that the pressure could be on the latest incarnation.

How will this affect Apple stock expectations?

Russ Mould, AJ Bell’s investment director, pointed out that Apple stock has a habit of running up strongly ahead of a new release and then doing relatively little in the immediate aftermath.

“Apple needs to shake off accusations that it is lagging in the field of Artificial Intelligence, and iPhone 16 therefore needs to prove it can compete with rival offerings such as Samsung’s Galaxy S24 and Alphabet’s Google Pixel 9,” he said.

Share Price Movements Before & After Recent iPhone Announcements

Source: AJ Bell

Mould also highlighted how the ‘Magnificent Seven’ of Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA) have already shed $2.5 trillion of their combined values since July.

He explained that this was due to “doubts about their lofty valuations,” worries about increased regulatory pushback, and questions over how much companies were spending on AI.

“Apple’s shares have proved the most resilient among the septet, with a drop of barely 5% since mid-July, compared to a retreat of nearly a quarter at NVIDIA, and this may be due to how the real driver of Apple’s business now is higher-margin services rather than hardware sales,” Mould added.

Apple Stock Forecast 2025: What Do The Analysts Say?

Next we look at the latest Apple stock predictions of analysts.

The good news for the company was that the Apple stock price target of some prominent analysts rose in the wake of the recent results and unveiling of the new iPhone lineup.

On the Road to Hit $4 Trillion Market Cap

Dan Ives, managing director and senior equity research analyst at Wedbush Securities, is particularly upbeat about the Apple stock outlook.

He told Squawk on the Street that the stock will be the first to hit a $4 trillion market cap on the back of a super cycle.

Dan Ives said he thinks Apple $AAPL will be the first stock to hit a $4 Trillion market cap pic.twitter.com/ONNsds0COF

— Evan (@StockMKTNewz) October 29, 2024

Apple At a Major Turning Point

Apple is at a major turning point in its career, according to Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell.

“The roll-out of its AI-powered Apple Intelligence service could be a powerful catalyst to encourage consumers to upgrade products such as phones and laptops. Unfortunately, mass upgrades won’t happen overnight as the service is only being rolled out on a phased basis.”

This means the market is judging Apple more on what it’s doing today rather than what it could achieve tomorrow, while its pace of growth isn’t strong enough to generate excitement.

“Its shares fell in pre-market trading following its latest results as guidance for low to mid-single digit revenue growth in its first quarter was less than the 6.65% growth forecast by analysts,” he explained. “That has caused investors to question if Apple has lost its bite.”

Elsewhere, there’s been sales weakness in China, and while not unique to Apple, competition from phone makers Huawei and Xiaomi is keeping the management team on its toes.

Looking ahead, Coatsworth believes the company needs to give consumers a reason to buy its products and sees technological innovation as the answer.

“For all the criticism around its latest results, it’s clear the business has been busy laying the foundations for future growth,” he said. “Each of its core products has a trick up its sleeve to win over the consumer.”

These include powerful chips that make laptops faster, active noise cancellation for AirPods, and more powerful and compact iPads.

iPhone Sales Were Strong

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, pointed out that its fourth quarter results delivered on both the top and bottom lines.

She said: “Importantly, iPhone sales were strong in the period ahead of the first wave of Apple Intelligence features being rolled out. These features focused on summarizing content and image cleanup, and initial feedback has been positive.”

Streeter believes this is good news for a business that’s struggled to deliver real innovation in recent times.

“Gone are the days when each new iPhone was so packed with new features that consumers felt obligated to upgrade every year,” she said.

She also pointed out that many iPhone users in the US have phones that are over three years old, so they won’t be able to use the new AI tools.

“The hope for Apple is that there’s enough substance in the new features to drive a multi-year upgrade cycle – we think that could be the case,” she added.

More broadly, Streeter believes Apple’s biggest asset remains its brand, with its loyal customer base giving it an element of revenue visibility that other businesses simply don’t possess.

“Overall, we think Apple remains strong. It wasn’t first past the post in the AI race, but the cautious approach could end up being a shrewd move.”

Valuation Rises To Reflect Stronger Long-Term Growth

William Kerwin, equity analyst at Morningstar, raised his fair value Apple share price forecast from $185 to $200 but believes shares are currently overvalued.

He wrote in his Apple stock forecast of November 1, 2024:

“We believe iPhone revenue growth, Apple’s largest driver, is slowing throughout cycles in a mature smartphone market and with growth headwinds out of China. We expect only a moderate slowdown in good growth, but we believe the expectations priced into the stock are lofty and reflect the overexuberance surrounding AI.”

Kerwin suggested that Apple Intelligence will spur a return to mid-single-digit growth for iPhone revenue but that the impact will be drawn out over the next two fiscal years.

“In the longer term, we expect iPhone unit sales and Apple’s services segment to drive solid growth and for margin expansion to help drive double-digit earnings growth over the next five years,” he added.

Kerwin also pointed out that the September quarter earnings call was the last with outgoing chief financial officer, Luca Maestri, who had announced his departure in August.

“We believe Maestri did a tremendous job as CFO, overseeing significant margin expansion and reductions in Apple’s ample net cash position,” he added. “We expect a continuation of these efforts under (Kevan) Parekh.”

Apple Stock Predictions: Where Will The Price Go Next?

So, is Apple a buy, hold, or sell? What are the expectations for Apple’s future stock price?

The stock is rated a ‘Moderate Buy,’ according to the Apple stock projections of 36 Wall Street analysts, compiled by MarketBeat as of November 7, 2024.

While 23 have ‘buy’ recommendations in place and 11 see it as a ‘hold,’ two have it down as a ‘sell.’

Others believe the AAPL stock price could rise almost 11% to $246.03 over the next 12 months, according to the views of 33 analysts compiled by TipRanks.

Meanwhile, the algorithmic forecast of Wallet Investor suggested that the price could hit $253.67 over the same period.

The following table shows the latest analysts’ Apple stock predictions as of November 7, 2024.

Source: MarketBeat

How about the Apple stock long-term forecast?

Most analysts are reluctant to look too far into the future, which is why an Apple stock forecast 2030 is often regarded as unrealistic.

However, Coincodex has a longer-term forecast in place that puts the AAPL stock price at $480.60 by November 2030.

Note that analysts and algorithm-based Apple stock projections might prove to be wrong.

The Bottom Line: Should I Invest in Apple?

There’s a lot to love about the tech giant. It’s been at the forefront of consumer tech development for decades, and its beautifully designed products have an enthusiastic international fanbase.

However, Apple’s past success means the management team is under a lot of pressure to continue beating expectations, and that’s no easy task.

A lot may depend on the roll-out of Apple Intelligence service and whether this will be enough to persuade consumers to keep upgrading their devices.

Industry observers are conflicted. While some believe the share price is currently overvalued, others believe it could rise higher over the coming months.

So, it’s essential you research the stock to draw your own conclusions before making an investment.

FAQs