Crypto Bull Run History: The Rise of Bitcoin & Altcoins

Bitcoin (BTC) prices have scaled multiple all-time high peaks in 2024 supported by the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs) and the US presidential election win of pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump.

At the time of writing, BTC prices were within touching distance of the fabled $100,000 mark—a price that once looked unrealizable during the depths of the crypto winter of 2022.

Yet once again, crypto prices have defied the odds and shut down naysayers, just as they have done several times in the past.

How long does a crypto bull run last?

As we celebrate another rally, we look back at the history of crypto bull runs and assess the market data to gain insights into how long it might last this time.

Table of Contents Table of Contents

1. Key Takeaways
2. Crypto Bull Run History: Major Milestones
3. How Long Will the Crypto Bull Run Last?
4. The Bottom Line
5. FAQs
6. References

Show Full Guide

Table of Contents

1. Key Takeaways
2. Crypto Bull Run History: Major Milestones
3. How Long Will the Crypto Bull Run Last?
Show Full Guide
4. The Bottom Line
5. FAQs
6. References

Crypto Bull Run History: Major Milestones

According to historical Bitcoin price charts compiled by crypto analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin has seen five bull runs since its genesis block was mined in January 2009. Let’s break them down:

1. Genesis to Mid-2011

Early 2009 to mid-2011 was an era when Bitcoin saw its first retail transaction when programmer Laszlo Hanyecz paid 10,000 Bitcoins ($921 million as of November 2024) for two Papa John’s pizzas.

At the time, Bitcoin was mineable using CPU chips, and its pseudonymous founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, was in active communication with members of the Bitcoin community.

By 2011, Bitcoin had emerged from obscurity as more people understood its decentralization philosophy and saw the importance of a peer-to-peer global cash payment network.

2. November 2011 to December 2013

Bitcoin’s pseudonymity features and global nature soon caught the eye of internet users who used it to buy illegal goods on an online black market called Silk Road.

Silk Road, which was operational between 2011 and 2013, accounted for about 20% of Bitcoin’s economic activity at its peak, according to blockchain research firm Chainalysis.

In November 2012, Bitcoin underwent its first halving event, which gave early adopters like Bitcoin Magazine co-founder Vitalik Buterin a chance to talk about Bitcoin’s inflation hedge and store-of-value properties.

Bitcoin’s second bull cycle also saw the collapse of a prominent crypto exchange Mt. Gox, and the birth of another exchange, Coinbase.

3. January 2015 to December 2017

Bitcoin’s third bull cycle saw cryptocurrencies go truly global as individuals in remote regions worldwide became aware of the digital asset as it scaled new all-time highs of nearly $20,000.

The crypto industry became richer than ever following the emergence of alternative investment options to Bitcoins (hence the term “altcoins“).

Ethereum (ETH), a crypto project that pioneered using autonomous smart contracts in blockchain, was leading the altcoin charge.

Following the success of the ETH token sale in 2014, several crypto projects, including Filecoin (FIL), Chainlink (LINK), and EOS (EOS), raised funds by launching their crypto tokens. This phenomenon came to be known as the initial coin offering (ICO) boom, which saw legitimate crypto projects, frauds, and scams attract retail and venture capital in droves.

4. December 2018 to November 2021

Following bearish crypto market activity for most of 2018, Bitcoin prices bottomed out just above the $3,000 mark at the end of the year.

Thereafter, cryptocurrency prices slowly recovered on the back of growing awareness among retail and institutional investors.

DeFi Summer, a period in 2020 that was marked by the growing popularity of decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms such as Uniswap (UNI), MakerDAO (MKR), and Compound (COMP), was the highlight of this era.

As for Bitcoin, the crypto went on to implement its third halving event during the peak of COVID-19 lockdowns in May 2020. During the year, Bitcoin gained prominent advocates, including Michael Saylor and his company Microstrategy (MSTR), which became the first publicly listed firm in the world to undertake a Bitcoin acquisition strategy.

Elon Musk-led Tesla (TSLA) followed suit and announced plans to add Bitcoin to its company treasury.

5. November 2022 to Present

The crypto winter of 2022 was a difficult time for crypto enthusiasts, who questioned whether investor faith in the industry would ever be restored following the collapse of popular crypto firms and projects, including FTX Exchange and Terra (LUNA).

The recovery began after Bitcoin prices plunged to a cycle low of about $15,500 in November 2022.

2023 was full of ups and downs for Bitcoin. The year began on an optimistic note as Bitcoin inscription technology introduced new use cases for the world’s oldest public blockchain.

However, the bankruptcy of crypto-focused commercial bank Silvergate Capital in March 2023 sucked the winds out of the sails.

At the end of the year, Bitcoin gained bullish momentum in anticipation of approvals for spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US.

On January 10, 2024, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the spot Bitcoin ETFs to finally take Bitcoin mainstream. The instrument was so popular that BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF became the fastest-growing ETF in history as it amassed $1 billion in assets in the first four days of trading.

How Long Will the Crypto Bull Run Last?

While no one can accurately predict when a crypto bull run starts or when it can end, here are some key metrics that can help gauge the strength of the ongoing crypto bull run.

We will focus on Bitcoin as it is the bellwether of cryptocurrency markets.

1. Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio

MVRV ratio refers to the market cap of Bitcoin based on current prices to the market cap of Bitcoin based on the price at which the tokens last moved on the blockchain.

According to Glassnode, the MVRV ratio is used to assess market profitability and determine when the price is above or below “fair value.”

MVRV values above 3.5 is a bearish signal and can signal cycle tops, said Glassnode.

Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio stood at 2.5 on November 26, 2024 for a market price of about $91,950, Glassnode data showed.

2. MVRV Z-Score

Michael Zhao of Grayscale Investments highlighted the use of MVRV Z-Score to get clues on whether a crypto bull run has legs.

“This metric calculates the divergence between the market cap and the realized cap, adjusting for volatility with the market cap’s rolling standard deviation. Historically, high Z-Scores, which reflect significant gaps between Market Value and Realized Value, have marked the peaks of cycles,” said Zhao in a research post.

3. ColinTalksCrypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index (CBBI)

Zhao also highlighted ColinTalksCrypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index (CBBI) in his research post on evaluating crypto bull run.

“The CBBI is a Bitcoin index that utilizes advanced, real-time analysis of 9 metrics to help us understand what stage of the Bitcoin bull run and bear market cycles we are in. The confidence score indicates whether we are approaching the top/bottom of a blow-off Bitcoin cycle,” read CBBI’s official website.

The Bottom Line

When predicting cryptocurrency prices, we have to keep in mind that experts and prediction models can be wrong. Most importantly, readers should keep in mind that historic crypto bull runs cannot be compared on an apple-to-apple basis as each market cycle comes with distinctive macroeconomic conditions and varying crypto adoption trends.

Looking forward, key catalysts that could extend the ongoing 2024 crypto bull run are favorable regulations for the crypto industry in the US under President Trump.

If the bicameral US government passes a bill proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis to create a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, it could make it the “mother of all Bitcoin bull runs.”

FAQs