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Every unbelievable moment of the European soccer season has led to this game.
The biggest match in Europe, the Champions League Final, is set to take place at Wembley Stadium in London on Saturday, June 1st between Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund. But who are the favorites? And are there any betting markets that offer particularly tasty odds on the Champions League final?
Our experts have analyzed the markets, run the stats, and sniffed out a few areas that others may not have seen. Below, you’ll find our Champions League predictions which will help you get the best betting odds on the big match.
Champions League Final Odds
Real Madrid are red-hot favorites to win the Champions League final, and why wouldn’t they be? This is one of the most decorated teams in the world, who already hold a record 14 Champions Leagues and are looking to make it 15.
They won the Spanish league championship comfortably, beating second-place Barcelona by 10 points, and are therefore well-backed with the best online sportsbooks into odds of -155 to win the final in regulation time.
The Champions League final odds are also weighted in favor of both teams to score. Real Madrid’s free-flowing attacking style of play often means both teams score when they play top opposition.
You’d have won a BTTS bet on both of their semi-final legs against Bayern Munich and both quarter-final legs against Manchester City.
Dortmund’s Defiant Defence
Borussia Dortmund are unlikely to want to engage in an all-out brawl when coming up against the likes of Vinicius Júnior and Jude Bellingham. They were really tight defensively in the group stages, keeping three clean sheets in their so-called “group of death” and only conceding two goals on one occasion.
They then conceded one goal across two round-of-16 legs against PSV Eindhoven and kept two more clean sheets against super star (and super wealthy) Kylian Mbappé’s PSG in the semifinals. In fact, they only went gung-ho in the quarterfinals in a 5-4 aggregate win over Atletico Madrid.
That anomaly aside, they run a tight ship. With that in mind, one of the more interesting Champions League picks is Real Madrid under 1.5 goals at +130.
The Champions League final odds for a draw are currently around +320, with a Dortmund victory in normal time at +425.
Champions League Final Predictions
Few predicted Borussia Dortmund would make it to this final, but it’s been a surprising season for many German teams.
Bayer Leverkusen had a 0.9% chance of winning the German Bundesliga at the beginning of the season according to Opta and not only did they win the title, they did so without losing a game.
VfB Stuttgart leapfrogged the mighty Bayern Munich into second, one year after narrowly avoiding relegation. Could die Schwarzgelben (German for “the black and yellow”) make it a trilogy of upsets and overcome the odds in a Champions League final?
Edin Terzić’s side are +425 to win in 90 minutes or at +265 to lift the trophy with BetOnline. Even though we love the longer odds, it’s too difficult to look beyond Real Madrid’s immense talent.
In the end, Los Blancos should find a way, as they have done 14 times before (including three back-to-back titles from 2015/16-2017/18).
Real Madrid Set For Frustration
We should say, we don’t think Real Madrid will steamroll their opponents as some are predicting. The UCL final has finished 1-0 the last four years in a row. If Borussia Dortmund bring their best dogged defending to Wembley, it would be no surprise to see the same scoreline repeated. This no-thrills Champions League final prediction can be backed at an appealing +750.
If you’re looking for an outside-of-the-box Champions League final bet, take a look at the history of referee Slavko Vinčić.
Soccer fans always grumble when decisions don’t go their way, but the Slovenian official came under a particularly high level of scrutiny after his role in a Barcelona vs Inter Milan match in 2022.
If a similar controversy arises in such a high-stakes game, which we expect to be tight, tempers could flare. Markets for certain players like Emre Can and Antonio Rudiger to be carded may be worth a look.
Key Players
As with any soccer betting strategy it can pay to look past the overall Champions League odds and hone in on individual players.
Sometimes, you can place bets on players who can be quite predictable, whether that’s because they can’t control their emotions or because they’re a greedy goal machine who refuses to pass.
Here are our top Champions League final player picks.
Real Madrid
- Jude Bellingham
England’s wonderkid is the complete package, and has excelled this season, bagging 23 goals and notching 12 assists for Madrid. Widely tipped as a future Ballon d’Or winner, he will be pivotal to unlocking Dortmund’s defence.
Jude Bellingham to score or assist – +110
- Vinicius Júnior
After enduring torrid abuse in La Liga and having injuries hamper his start to the campaign, Real Madrid fans will be delighted to see the Vinicius Jr they know and love shine through over the course of the season. The Brazilian is the outright favorite to score at least one goal in the Champions League final.
Vinicius Junior to score first – +150
- Tony Kroos
The midfield maestro has found top form ahead of the European Championship in his homeland and will be looking to head into this summer’s tournament full of confidence. In case you missed it, he also recently announced his plans to retire after the Euros. We can’t think of any bigger incentive to win the Champions League final.
Tony Kroos to make over 2.5 tackles – +134
- Antonio Rudiger
The 31-year-old former Chelsea man has mightily filled the space vacated by the injured Éder Militão. He’s bagged two assists in the Champions League this season and is a long shot, but could provide an option if you want to take a risk.
Antonio Rudiger to get over 0.5 assists – +1400
Borussia Dortmund
- Jadon Sancho
What a season it’s been for the Manchester United winger on loan to Borussia Dortmund. After falling out with Ten Hag, Sancho returned to his former club on loan and now finds himself as a key player heading into the final. Fans will have to summon the support of the Yellow Wall and hope he brings his A-game.
Jason Sancho anytime goalscorer – +600
- Gregor Kobel
The giant – though not giant enough to make our list of tallest soccer players – 6’5” man between the sticks will be absolutely pivotal if Borussia Dortmund stand a chance of beating a team who have won 14 Champions League finals to date. He’s already kept six clean sheets in this season’s Champions League. Can he make it seven?
Borussia Dortmund to keep a clean sheet – +500
- Mats Hummels
At the age of 35, Mats Hummels has 70 international caps and brings a wealth of experience to the showcase Champions League final. He’s the last man standing from the 2012 Dortmund team which did the double, and would love the chance to add another medal to the cabinet. Given the pace of his opponents, he’ll need to be on exceptional form.
Mats Hummels over 2.5 tackles – -164
- Niclas Füllkrug
Borussia Dortmund’s top scorer finished the Bundesliga season with 15 goals and 11 assists, converting 22% of his chances. But he’ll need to be even more clinical in this UCL final and try to put away any chance he has if they want to topple the European giants.
Niclas Füllkrug anytime goalscorer – +400
FAQs
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References
- https://www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/bayer-leverkusen-leicester-city-and-the-most-surprising-league-winners-this-century-in-europes-big-five/#:~:text=Bayer%20Leverkusen%20may%20have%20started,beating%20Werder%20Bremen%205%2D0 (CBS Sports)
- https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/teams/borussia-dortmund/top-scorers (BBC Sport)
- https://football-italia.net/barcelona-taking-action-after-poor-officiating-in-loss-to-inter-report/ (Football Italia)
