NBA Finals Betting Lines & Picks

NBA Finals betting lines

The 2024 NBA Finals matchup featuring the Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics and the best of the West, the Dallas Mavericks, is intriguing on several levels.

NBA Finals betting lines reflect the chance to find value and opportunity as the Celtics and Mavericks aim to be the team to replace the current NBA champion Denver Nuggets.

Celtics vs. Mavericks

Celtics, Mavericks NBA Finals — Image: Twitter/X

These NBA Finals teams were assigned vastly different expectations, holding true as the calendar turned from 2023 to 2024.

Boston was a heavy favorite to make its way through a weakened, injury-riddled East while Dallas was considered a long-shot title contender at best by all good online sportsbooks.

Things changed for the Mavericks at the trade deadline when they traded for big man Daniel Gafford and versatile forward PJ Washington.

The Kyrie Irving experiment – bringing on a star with a somewhat checkered past and paying him big money – has been an overwhelming success.

Irving and superstar Luka Doncic meshed beautifully.

Dallas won 16 of its final 20 regular-season games and stormed through the Western Conference playoffs, culminating in a convincing 4-1 series victory over the favored Minnesota Timberwolves.

Virtually no NBA experts would have pegged the Mavericks as only +190 underdogs (at BetOnline) in this year’s NBA Finals (the Celtics are -220 favorites), but that’s where we are as Thursday’s Game 1 nears.

NBA Finals Outright Bets

In an intriguing and potentially very entertaining series, there are several attractive options on the menu of NBA playoffs odds available a the best NBA betting sites.

The Possibility of an NBA Finals Sweep

If you’re dismissing the idea that this will be a competitive series, betting on either team to win via 4-0 sweep brings a good price.

Celtics to sweep: +500

Mavericks to sweep: +2500

We don’t like the idea of only +500 for Boston to go 4-0 on this rising power, but the Dallas number is certainly something to consider.

Celtics or Mavericks to Win Back-to-Back NBA Finals

Both teams are poised to continue their run of success into next season, so if you’re confident in how to bet on the NBA finals and think a champion could go back-to-back, the Boston Celtics are already +550 and Dallas are +2200.

Though it doesn’t look like great value, the Celtics price seems fair given their odds-on favoritism for this year’s Finals and their bright future.

Foundational pieces Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are signed and happy – and would find tremendous inspiration to repeat if they can help Boston capture the 2024 title.

Who Will Win the 2024 NBA Finals MVP Award?

The alpha dogs from the conference semifinal series were expected to be Luka Doncic and Jayson Tatum, but as good as Tatum performed in the Celtics’ win over the Indiana Pacers, it was teammate Jaylen Brown who walked away with the Eastern Conference finals MVP.

That helps those who believe Tatum will again control the Finals and lead Boston to a title. There are some great prop bets available if you think one of these stars will prove indispensable.

To win the 2024 NBA Finals MVP

Jayson Tatum -125
Luka Doncic +200
Jaylen Brown +600
Kyrie Irving +6000

Tatum’s odds would have been closer to -200 had he been awarded the conference finals MVP, so there’s some value pricing in play.

If you believe the Mavericks will win the series, well, there’s virtually no other candidate than Doncic here.

NBA Finals Game 1 Picks

There won’t be any advantage concerning the amount of rest each team has enjoyed. Player rest is usually a key factor in how to bet on NBA games, but the extended rest before the Finals takes care of this.

The Mavericks wrapped up their series May 30; the Celtics capped their sweep May 27. A week-plus should be plenty of time for the players to find relatively good health.

Player to Score the Most Points in Game 1

The series begins with two games in Boston, which earned the home-court advantage via the better regular-season record.

That means a crushing noise advantage, a big adrenalin boost and a more likely victory in Game 1 for the Celtics.

At the tip of the spear is Jayson Tatum, who likely still believes this is his team and his house. (Odds per BetOnline)

Jayson Tatum -154
Luka Doncic +215
Kyrie Irving +484
Jaylen Brown +600

This bet depends on how you believe these teams will defend the superstars. If Boston immediately double-teams Doncic, it will reduce the amount of scoring opportunities; if Dallas tries to mitigate Tatum’s scoring, that opens the door for Brown to have a big night.

The bet: Let’s take a swing at Brown +600.

Jaylen Brown Points + Rebounds + Assists in Game 1

Here’s an opportunity to find benefit in backing a high-volume player. Brown, who just won the Eastern Conference finals MVP, has the ball in his hands almost as much as Tatum and is always looking to score.

Somewhat under the radar, though, is Brown’s ability to rebound. He’s pulling down 6.1 rebounds per game during the postseason. Add three assists or so, and you have a big-scoring guy who can sail over this total.

The bet: Jaylen Brown OVER 32 points + rebounds + assists

Celtics' Kristaps Porzingis 3-Pointers Made

Celtics’ Kristaps Porzingis 3-Pointers Made

The Boston big man missed the Indiana series with a calf strain but is expected to be ready Thursday night.

He’s likely to be a little less eager to engage in physical battles under the basket, preferring to cruise the perimeter and shoot 3s.

With the familiarity of the home court, Porzingis will find himself open several times from beyond the arc and should be able to convert at least two of those chances.

The bet: Kristaps Porzingis OVER 1.5 3-pointers made (-136 at BetOnline)

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References

https://www.nba.com/playoffs/2024/nba-finals (NBA.com)
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/doncilu01.html (Basketball Reference)
https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/3917376/jaylen-brown (ESPN)

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