NFL International Games Betting Trends

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nfl international games betting

The 2024 NFL season is in full swing and the league’s International Series got off to a flyer in Week 1 in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

That game highlighted a few longstanding NFL international games betting trends in the process.

After a 63-point thriller where the Eagles beat the Packers with a game-ending sack on Jordan Love – it didn’t take long for Packers fans to start blaming the loss on the team’s lengthy 10-hour travel time to Brazil.

Factors such as longer flight times, jetlag, and varying weather conditions can all swing the odds in your favor when wagering on your favorite NFL betting sites, and here’s how you can take advantage of them.

NFL international games 2024
Image: NFL.com

How Many International NFL Games are there in 2024

The first-ever international NFL game dates back to the 1950s and 60s when pre-season games were regularly played in Canada.

Still, it wasn’t until the American Bowl series kicked off in London in 1986 that the concept of playing a regular season game abroad came about.

Fast forward to the 2005 season, and the first-ever regular-season game outside the United States was played in front of 103,467 fans in Mexico City’s Estadio Azteca stadium, where the 49ers beat the Arizona Cardinals.

Since then, London, England, has taken over as the prime destination for regular season games and in the meantime, the NFL has continued to expand – not just the number of international games, but the number of host countries, too.

As a result, the 2024 season will witness a record-equalling five regular season matchups staged in Sao Paulo and Munich, in addition to the three regular London NFL games.

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NFL International Games Betting Angles

Prone to throwing up upsets, playing regular season games outside of the United States can be influenced by countless external factors.

This results in several beneficial NFL international games betting trends – you only have to look at the NFL London games history to witness this.

While fans grumble about the loss of a regular season home game, savvy bettors can take advantage of these off-field occurrences, which often lead to some remarkable results.

Travel Time

Quite possibly, the most influential factor to consider when betting on the NFL International Series matches is reflecting on each team’s travel requirements to get to games.

Generally, long-distance travel is a common occurrence throughout the NFL regular season. However, even coast-to-coast, the longest domestic flight is around five hours, whereas flights to Sao Paulo, London, and Munich are all longer than this, taking anywhere from seven hours (east coast to London) to 12 hours (west coast to Munich).

Teams with longer flight times often suffer, giving you a distinct edge when wagering on the game’s final result.

This is particularly relevant when it comes to the totals over/under market, as seen in the Eagles versus Packers match in Sao Paulo.

Jetlag

While flying time is undoubtedly a factor, distance traveled isn’t the only consideration.

Jetlag can seriously impact a team’s preparation and gameday performance, as the Buffalo Bill’s NFL record in London will testify to.

Flying in as late as Friday morning before Sunday’s clash at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in 2023, the Bill’s jetlag was blamed for their sluggish offense getting started in a poor first quarter.

This resulted in them punting the ball away on their first four possessions. They eventually lost 20-25 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Jaguars, on the other hand, had the benefit of having arrived a week earlier to play back-to-back London games, giving them a clear advantage over the travel-weary Bills.

When you consider how the Jaguars have performed recently, the possible betting angles this throws up are numerous from player props and same-game parlays (SGPs), to straight up moneyline bets.

Weather Conditions

When using NFL international games betting trends to identify key value bets, be sure to keep an eye on the expected weather conditions, too.

Perhaps the most obvious example was the inaugural match in the NFL London games history books when the Miami Dolphins hosted the New York Giants at Wembley Stadium in 2007.

Considering Miami played their previous home game under the hot Florida sun in 89F heat, the match was instead played in the cold, on a rain-soaked playing surface.

With the sodden Wembley pitch cutting up as early as the first quarter, the Dolphin succumbed to a 13-10 loss. Despite this, astute bettors took advantage of believing the London weather favored the Giants, which many fans say proved to be a decisive factor.

Loss of Home Field Advantage

Another pivotal strategy you can exploit when looking for an edge is to keep in mind both teams playing in the NFL International Series are playing away from home.

This can be key, as while a team may have a superior home record on paper, usually making them strong favorites, playing a game in the NFL International Series in London, Sao Paulo, or Munich can level the playing field, which is ideal for your moneyline bets.

A top tip here is to discount the home team and instead zero in on teams that do well on the road. A prime example of this could be the upcoming matchup between the Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars.

Despite being the away team, Jacksonville was joint 5th in the league on the road last season with a 5-3 record, compared to the Bears, who were =27th and 2-7 away from home.

NFL International Game Previews

As we preview each of the remaining games, it’s important to note that this season offers countless ways to profit from the NFL international games betting trends.

Teams like the Jaguars benefit from a strong UK fan base and a longer preparation in the country before their second game there.

The Minnesota Vikings also boast an unbeaten record in London, so there are high-value bets to be found.

New York Jets vs Minnesota Vikings

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Sunday 6th October 2024, 9.30 ET

This year’s London NFL games kick off with the impressive Minnesota Vikings hosting the New York Jets, led by future hall of famer Aaron Rodgers.

NFL international games - NY Jets Wembley
Image: Myron Mott/Unsplash

The Jets have an all-time 8-4 winning record over the Vikings. However, despite the Jets seamlessly dispatching divisional rivals the New England Patriots in Week 3, the Vikings have already beaten NFC favorites and last season’s Super Bowl runners-up, San Francisco – having started their impressive season 4-0.

The Vikings London record is also perfect at 3-0 compared to the Jets, who are 1-1. It’s hard not to favor Minnesota in this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Chicago Bears

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Sunday 13th October 2024, 9.30 ET

The Jacksonville Jaguar’s record in London is a mixed one, but to their credit, having previously signed a deal to play four consecutive years in London, it has fostered a home-away-from-home support fan base.

The Jaguars have played in London eleven times and have a decent 6-5 record so its UK fan base could give them an advantage over the Bears, who have only played in the UK twice.

Both teams have had less than desirable starts to the 2024 season, though, with the Jaguars failing to win in the first four regular-season games.

In the Bears camp, Caleb Williams is having an inconsistent start to his rookie year and they’re 2-2 after four games.

When two teams don’t look great on paper it can pay to take a look at the early drives to see if either can generate some momentum. This means this could be the ideal game to take advantage of a live betting odds as the game unfolds.

New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Wembley Stadium, London
Sunday 20th October 2024, 9.30 ET

Like the Vikings, the New England Patriots also boast an undefeated record when playing in London, but it’s worth noting their last visit was 12 seasons ago in 2012.

NFL international games - Jacksonville Jaguars Wembley
Image: Melissa McGovern/Unsplash

The Patriots also lead the head-to-head series against the Jaguars 8-1, but don’t let this stat deceive you – New England aren’t the team they were in the glory days under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.

Despite a shock defeat over the Bengals in the season opener, the current-day Patriots and the Jaguars are evenly matched.

This could mean that NFL international game trends lean more towards capitalizing on team prop bets in favor of the Jaguars with its longer preparation time and additional UK support behind them.

New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers

Allianz Arena, Munich
Sunday 10th November 2024, 9.30 ET

The clash between the Giants and the Panthers will be the third time the NFL has played a regular season game in Germany and the second time in Munich.

NFL international games - Munich
Image: Jonathan Pinto/Unsplash

While neither team has played in Germany before, both have unbeaten records in London, with the Giants 3-0 and the Panthers 1-0.

Recent form would typically make this game hard to call, with both the Giants and the Panthers starting the season 1-2; this makes their NFL Munich matchup ideal for points spread bettors to lock in a healthy profit.

Of course, both teams had dismal away records last season. Nevertheless, the Panthers saw an instant return, having ditched last year’s number one draft pick Bryce Young in favor of NFL veteran Andy Dalton in Week 3, resulting in an impressive away win over the Las Vegas Raiders; if this momentum shift continues, it should swing the game toward a Panthers victory.

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Stuart Hughes
Technology Writer
Stuart Hughes
Technology Writer

Stuart is a freelance journalist and marketing content writer and a graduate of Canterbury Christ Church University. His writing covers topics including AI, Cybersecurity, Aviation, and Travel & Tourism. Beyond his work for Techopedia, he also writes articles for Best Western Hotels & Resorts, Lenovo Computers, and several aviation-based clients. Having resided in various corners of the world, Stuart still enjoys exploring new destinations, and when he's not traveling, he's playing football and golf or out on the bike.