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The Myth: “Casino games are fixed… It’s all rigged. There’s no way to beat ‘em!”
Are casino games fixed?
The first thing we need to determine is what exactly we mean by the word ‘fixed’.
In the normal sense of the word, all casino games are ‘fixed’; a clever calculation of cause and effect – the roll of a die, the turn of a card – balanced, with risk and reward.
All mashed together into a statistical soup of precise probability.
All casino games are ‘fixed’, to guarantee the house has a marginal advantage: aka an edge.
If every bet was just a coin toss, with even money, +100, 1/1 odds, there would be no profit and no casinos.
For example: slots are engineered specifically to pay out at a certain percentage; it’s called the RTP – Return To Player.
Most real money online slots and physical machines return about 96%. Basically: for every dollar you bet, you get 96 cents back. In the long run, you lose.
The real question is: are casino games ‘rigged’?
The answer to that is simple: no.
Here are two reasons why casino games are not rigged.
1. Regulation
Getting a casino license is either very hard or very expensive.
And when we say hard, we mean: get up early, forget your social life, work every weekend, fail that relationship, drop your friends, hard.
And, if you’re not putting in the effort 24/7, you’re probably paying lawyers, project managers, and a bunch of costly consultants to do the work. That makes it very expensive.
All land-based and real money online casinos have to show due diligence, transparency, and competence. The betting business is political and controversial.
There is a powerful anti-gambling lobby, firing up the fear factor. The only way to keep the legislators on side is a commitment to stringent regulation.
And, what would be the core requirement of any gaming licence? It’s simple: offer players casino games that are not rigged.
In other words: don’t cheat.
And here’s the thing: casinos don’t need to cheat. Stay long enough and the house always wins. The games are ‘fixed’ that way.
Let’s take the easiest example of all: roulette. If there was no zero on a roulette table, the house would never win. The zero is a physical manifestation of the house edge.
There are 36 numbers and a zero; a total of 37 possible outcomes. But, hit any single number and you get only 36/1.
The house edge on a single zero roulette table is 1/37 or 2.70%. That’s the casino’s profit on the roulette table.
Incidentally, US roulette has both a zero and a double zero. The house edge here is 1/38 or 5.26%. Avoid.
2. Reputation
Any casino cheating its players is not going to last long.
Take the case of Absolute Poker; an online poker room that got caught cheating its players in 2007.
As soon as word got out, it was over. It went from being one of the top online poker sites to a busted flush, almost overnight.
As for bricks and mortar operations, the only cheating is likely to be either by the staff or the players. Croupiers palming chips, or working in collusion with players, is not uncommon.
But a casino deliberately rigging the games? It’s not Deadwood. It’s not the Wild West.
Do you seriously think MGM and Harrah’s would risk the scandal and put their gaming licence on the line?
Here’s the Deal…
The thing is: casinos don’t need to cheat. You might get lucky, hit a few big ones, and enjoy a night to remember. But the numbers don’t lie. Eventually, Lady Luck will slip out the bedroom door and leave you for someone else.
