What Are the Odds of Making It to MLB?

Some say the hardest thing to in sports is hit a major-league curveball.

If you watch highlights on social media, it is a wonder that anyone could hit any major-league pitch with regularity.

Yet, hitting is only one component for players of Major League Baseball (MLB) to master, since they also need to be at least passable at defense and running.

Or, if you’re hoping to reach the majors as a pitcher, you’d need to throw at least 100mph with at least one good-to-decent secondary pitch.

Needless to say, just making it to MLB is really hard, let alone to the upper echelons of the league and it’s highest-paid players.

Just how hard is it? Let’s take a deep dive and find out.

The Odds Of You Making It to the Big Leagues

From a sheer numbers perspective, even reaching any level of professional, affiliated baseball is nearly impossible.

There are fewer than 10,000 professional baseball players participating across all pro American Leagues and just 5,000 that are playing affiliated ball in Minor League Baseball.

Yet, even those who are playing in the minors would dream to be one of the 800-or-so players who can call themselves major leaguers.

Each of the 30 MLB teams has a 26-man roster, which totals 780 players. Consider those who are injured or others that ride the proverbial shuttle between Triple-A and the bigs, and there’s between 800-900 major leaguers at any one time.

So, from a sheer odds perspective, the average American has about a 0.0003% chance of making it to the MLB.

Eliminate all women, since there’s never been a female player in MLB, and the odds of an American male reaching the pinnacle of baseball is about 0.000418% .

Boil it down further to include all American men between the ages of 25-35, since most MLB players fall in that age range, and your chances balloon to 0.0023%.

Anyone who likes to bet on baseball, or any sports league for that matter, will not like those odds.

In fact, the odds are actually longer than that, since MLB players can come from anywhere in the world – including Japan, Korea, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Cuba, Venezuela, Mexico and other countries in the world.

Taking the budding globalization of MLB into account, and the odds become astronomical – even if you happen to be a talented ball player.

The Numbers

Playing baseball is fun and millions of Americans do so annually, whether it is Little League, youth leagues, high-school baseball or even college.

Still, the higher, and more exclusive, the level of play goes, the fewer players there are still participating in America’s Pastime.

About 500,000 Americans play high-school baseball each year and about 35,000 players play at college in the United States each year. That leaves the chances of going from high-school baseball to college ball at 7 percent.

Of that 35,000 in college, only about 600 young men get drafted by MLB teams each year,. This number used to be bigger but the MLB shrank the draft from 40 rounds to 20 in 2021.

That leaves the chances of getting drafted at about 1.7 percent for college players and 0.12 percent among high-school baseball players.

Again, many of these draft selections will never play in MLB, since again, only about 800 suit up in the bigs each year.

Bus rides and substandard conditions will pull many would-be ballplayers out of the game, and others simply end up released and needing to find new jobs to make ends’ meet.

It takes great perseverance to reach the majors, as well as skill, talent and luck.

Thus, your chances of reaching the majors are akin to that of being struck by lightning twice, one in nine million. We prefer the idea of sitting back and finding the best value possible with the best MLB betting sites.

Conclusion

Qualifying for MLB is hard, especially when you also factor the number of prospective players who have their chances dashed due to injuries.

But just because it is tough doesn’t mean you shouldn’t try. Every year hundreds fulfill their dream and reach MLB. The odds may seem long, but it’s not impossible.

Hard work, talent and having mentors and people who believe in you is a great way of beating those odds.

But even with all that, the most important trait is you need to be an outstanding and insanely talented baseball player.