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A solid betting strategy will allow you to maximize winnings and minimize losses. While a bit of luck is always needed to consistently make money, having a well-prepared strategy gives you the best chance to profit from online betting.
In this guide, we will look at a range of sports betting strategies that you can easily apply to your bets. We’ve included basic principles you need to engrain and advanced betting strategies that professional sports bettors use.
Fast Facts for Players
- A good betting strategy helps you win more and lose less, giving you the best chance for consistent profits, even in sports with their unpredictable nature.
- Managing your bankroll properly is crucial, as well as using a points system for wagers to protect your finances and ensure long-term success.
- Understanding how odds work and finding the best betting lines across different sportsbooks can greatly increase your chances of winning.
- Advanced strategies like hedging, creating your own betting lines, and fading the public can help you find better value in your bets.
- Focusing on a specific team or league helps you gain expertise, giving you an edge when making betting decisions.
Why Use a Betting Strategy
A betting strategy allows you to apply logic to your bets. It’s easy to look through scores of games and markets before making picks, but without any logic applied, you’re going to lose money a lot quicker than you win.
The best betting strategies will create value from your bets and, hopefully, ensure a profit. Sports can be hard to predict, and it’s this unpredictability that makes them so popular. But from a betting perspective, it makes it hard to be profitable, which is where a betting strategy comes in.
One thing you need to note before we dive in is that you aren’t going to win every bet you place. However, a solid strategy will allow you to give yourself the best opportunity to make a profit. The same concepts are applied throughout sports and the classic “fail to prepare and prepare to fail” is very much applicable here.
Basic Sports Betting Strategies
Before we discuss advanced sports betting strategies, we want to address a few basic principles. These are as many rules as strategies and are imperative if you want to make money from sports betting consistently.
Bankroll Management
Sports betting should be seen as an investment. You invest your time (research) and money (stake) to try and win more money (ROI). Your bankroll will determine the amount you should place on each wager, and sticking to these limits is imperative as it means that when you lose (and you will lose from time to time), you can soak up the loss without worrying about finances.
The amount you wager on sports betting sites should be based on a points system. For standard bets, this might be 1 point. For bets that are deemed to have increased value, anything up to 5 (based on the bet’s value) is fine.
One easy way to work this is by using 1% for 1 point.
For example:
If your bankroll is $1,000, then 1 point would be $10 (1%).
This can be adjusted based on how easy it is for the bankroll to be replenished, but as a rule, this is a safe place to start.
Learn How Odds Work
You must know how betting odds work before placing whatever type of bet. Odds represent the payout based on the probability of that result. So, a coin toss would be 50/50 or even money (+100) for heads or tails.
You also need to know why the odds change. There are generally two instances of this, based on the amount of money wagered or something that would affect the chances of the result, such as a star player getting injured or a change in the ground for horse racing.
Find the Best Betting Lines
You need to search for the best possible betting lines for your picks. All the online sportsbooks will have different lines for the same bet, and by not taking the best price, you’re losing huge sums of value on the table:
The example above covers an NFL game between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs. The odds or lines for each market are different between the two. If we just take the straight moneyline bet for this and wanted to bet on the Broncos to win, the payout would be as follows:
- BetOnline – $100 @ +460 = $460 profit
- BetUS – $100 @ +450 = $450 profit
This shows that for every $100 we wager, we make $10 more betting with BetOnline over BetUS.
Avoid Parlay Bets
Although popular, parlay bets should be avoided despite the fact that you can win huge sums of money for a relatively small stake. However, if you want to profit long-term from online betting, you need to avoid this bet type like the plague.
The reason is that they rarely win and will lose you a lot more money in the long run than they will make. If you’re starting out, especially with a small bankroll, they are going to drain you faster than you can keep up with. Stick to straight wagers and futures bets.
Embrace the Data
Data is key when choosing potential picks. It’s great to use a service like BetIdeas, which provides AI-powered predictions. You need to have more than just a hunch or feeling about a bet. Instead, back that up with data that can be applied to ensure you’re on the right lines.
There are tons of sites that offer free and paid data services. You can use the home sites of the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA to pull huge data scores for free. Paid sites won’t necessarily have access to more data, but they will help you translate the stats into bets, which saves a lot of time, especially when starting out.
Advanced Sports Betting Strategy
The information above is a betting strategy that you need to know forever. It is as much good practice as anything, but now we want to move into strategies that you can test to see how they work for the bets you want to place.
There will be times when each sports betting strategy works better than another, depending on the types of bets used and the sample size of any data, and that is often the skill of when to use them. Learn them all, test them, and then find what works best for you.
Hedging Bets
Hedging bets involve backing against the original bet to either lock in a profit or minimize a loss. It’s designed to ensure that you have all bases covered and ideally lock in a profit on all results. Don’t overlook hedging a bet as part of a loss-limiting exercise, though. It’s often overlooked but can be an incredibly valuable tool.
Let’s run through a real-world example of how a hedge could work.
In the 2022 NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs were priced as high as +1000 before the first game of the season. So, if you placed a $100 bet at those odds, you would make a $1,000 profit.
By the time they got to the Super Bowl, they were up against the Philadelphia Eagles and were a slight underdog to win at odds of +105. However, these odds are way less than the original price.
To hedge now, we need to back the Eagles to win at odds of -125, and we use the “profit” that we would essentially make from the Chiefs winning to do this.
Let’s assume that we place a bet of $500 at odds of -125 on the Eagles:
- Eagles to win – $500 @ -125 = $400 profit
Now the bet is hedged, and we win $500 if the Chiefs win ($1,000 – $500 stake on the Eagles) and $300 profit if the Eagles win ($400 – $100 original stake on the Chiefs), all for a $100 bet.
The smart thing about hedging is that you can manipulate the bets based on your stake to favor one result or get the same returns on both results. Using a hedging calculator here saves a lot of time when trying to get an equal payout.
Create Your Own Betting Lines
As you become more accustomed to online betting, a great tool that you can use to create your own betting line. Here, you’re becoming your own bookmaker, where you use all the data available to you to then create a line.
The idea behind this is that you can then compare that line to odds from your sportsbook and decide if it offers value. If the odds are higher, this would indicate value, and if they are lower, then it won’t.
This works easier by simply calculating the implied probability of a market based on a percentage. So, a 50/50 chance would be 50% implied probability, and as odds, that would be +100. It just means we can create a round 100% market and not an offset one when working with odds alone.
Let’s take an example from the English Premier League, featuring a match between West Ham and Newcastle United.
Before the game, we conducted our research and determined the following implied probabilities for the win/draw/win market:
- West Ham to win – 20% (odds of +400)
- Draw – 25% (odds of +300)
- Newcastle to win – 55% (odds of -122)
Next, we compared the odds with those offered by a preferred bookmaker. Looking at the odds for West Ham to win and the draw, we saw that the odds are considerably shorter at the bookmaker, meaning they didn’t offer value based on our calculations.
However, while our analysis suggested that Newcastle had a 55% chance of winning (implying odds of -122), the bookmaker’s odds implied only 45% chance (offering odds of +120). This showed the value in betting on Newcastle, as the bookmaker had underestimated their chances of winning.
Fade the Public
Fade the public is one of the more common betting strategies that allow punters to take advantage of inflated lines. A key aspect to note with this strategy is that betting lines aren’t solely based on the likely outcome of that result but also include the amount of money wagered on one side of the market.
The bookmaker is constantly trying to balance the books based on the amount of money staked and exposure. They will move lines based on this and if one side is heavier than the other (greater exposure) they will make the opposing line more popular to encourage more bets.
However, this doesn’t mean that the line is more likely to happen, which in turn creates value for the punter.
For example:
The LA Lakers are one of the most popular teams in the NBA and get a lot of bets based on popularity.
If an initial spread was at -5.5, which then drifted to -7.5, then this is not because they have more chance of covering, but instead, there has been more money-based.
The strategy would then require you to bet on the opposing team at +7.5, which offers greater value as the line has moved based on the volume of bets and not the likelihood of covering the initial spread.
Dutching
The strategy of Dutching bets is used to place multiple wagers on the same game or match to create an equal profit or loss on all results. This strategy is best used to claim, clear, or trigger free bets/bonuses but can be used as a general sports betting strategy if needed.
For this strategy, you’ll usually need to use multiple betting sites or have lines move significantly to make a profit. It’s similar to hedging, but for it to work, you need to create the same profit/loss on all results.
To get started, you will need a Dutching calculator to ensure you wager the right amount on each market. Tennis is one of the most popular sports to “Dutch,” and we will use it for our example, but the method can be applied to any sport.
Let’s assume the promotion is a $10 free bet when you place a $10 bet on a game between Roger Federer and Andy Murray. Federer is priced at -200 and Murray at +150. We use our calculator and it shows us that we need to wager the following amounts.
| Outcome | Bookmaker 1 | Bookmaker 2 | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federer wins | + $5.00 | – $6.00 | £1.00 loss |
| Murray wins | – $10.00 | + $9.00 | £1.00 loss |
The table shows that once we place our $10 free bet on Federer, we need to wager $6 on Murray to lock in a $1 loss on all results. This means it costs us just $1 for our $10 free bet.
Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion in gambling has been designed to aid sports bettors when it comes to deciding how much to stake on the market. It’s used alongside other betting strategies to determine the likelihood of the result happening and how much exposure you have for that bet.
There is some basic math that you need to know, although there are multiple online calculators that you can use instead:
- B = Decimal Odds
- P = Probability of Winning
- Q = Probability of Not Winning
- (BP-Q) / B
Let’s use an example of how this works. We will use the points spread on an NBA game between the Timberwolves and the Lakers.
As you can see, the odds were -110 (1.91) for a total of O/U 231.5. However, we assumed this would be covered easily and instead gave the “over” a 65:35 chance of happening. Our formula was as follows:
- (0.91 * 0.65 – 0.35) / 0.91 = 0.27 = 27% stake on the Over
Given we thought the line was so far off, the formula recommended staking 27% of our bankroll on the over-bet. This was an extreme example, and usually, the numbers would be much tighter, but served as a great tool for seeing how far apart you and the betting site are in terms of the odds on offer and then the perceived value you get from these lines.
Using Cash Out Betting to Your Advantage
Cash out can be a strong tool when used correctly with online betting. The concept is that it allows you to close a bet before the market has closed, allowing you to either lock in a profit or limit a loss.
One of the best ways to utilize cash out betting is to track games and then react to events within the game. For example, if you’ve backed a team to win and they take a narrow lead (within a single score) with not much time left, then it might be a good idea to lock in a profit without the risk of losing.
The flip side is that you can cash out when your pick loses. It may get to a point where the game is tied or even very close, allowing you to cash out for a small loss or even to break even.
Become an Expert in a Team/League
One of the biggest mistakes with recreational sports bettors is that they spread themselves too thin. They often cover too many games from sports that they have little to no knowledge of.
If you’re new to online sports betting, then we recommend that you keep it simple and place bets on teams or leagues you’re familiar with. So, for example, if you’re a Premier League expert, try starting out by testing your expertise at one of the ‘football’ betting sites in the UK. Having as much information to make picks as possible is critical to success.
Betting on your own team can have advantages and disadvantages. If you’re able to keep a clear mind and remove bias from your bet, then betting on your supported team is fine. But you need to be able to remove yourself from the result you want and instead pick the most likely to happen.
For example, if you’re an LA Lakers fan, then there’s a good chance you know the team and the NBA relatively well. Start by finding bets for games that the Lakers are involved with at NBA betting sites, and then expand that to other teams in the league.
Best Betting Strategy by Sports
Betting strategies will differ from sport to sport. In this section, we’ve outlined the major US sports leagues and the type of strategy that is best used for each:
In the NBA, one of the most common strategies is betting against the public. There are huge shifts in support for each team, which means odds can often get inflated based on the public simply betting on their favorites. The best advice, if you want to know how to bet on basketball, is to track initial lines and then see how the odds change as the tip-off gets nearer.
With the MLB, you want to target over/under bets, specifically on games that have big lines (+/- 7.5 runs).
When games have lines like this, it tends to mean that they expect high-scoring games that favor the underdog for an upset. Take our pro tip for how to bet on baseball effectively, and check the spread (and even the moneyline) to see if they offer any value.
The NFL is the most competitive sport when it comes to betting. Bookmakers have a 50.3% rate of covering the spread, which is incredible and shows that for this market, it’s a mere coin flip most of the time.
Smart bettors use context betting to find results based on the previous week’s performance. This means that instead of simply taking the result from the previous week, they decide why it happened. This might include the types of scoring plays, the players playing well, the type of opposition, or even home-field advantage.
If a team has won by 30 points, it doesn’t mean they will do so next time. You must consider that when deciding how to bet on NFL games throughout the regular season and playoffs up to the Super Bowl.
The NHL is the lowest-scoring sport of the “big four,” but it does have its advantages. Like the NBA, one of the best strategies to apply is fading the public, with most bets going on home-ice advantage. As a result, the underdog is often a strong value and should be assessed for each game within both spread and moneyline bets. That is how we recommend that you bet on NHL action on rinks across America and Canada.
Wagering on golf is best with futures betting markets and cash out. The sport offers huge pre-tournament odds, which means that you can use the cash out feature to lock in a profit before the event ends.
For example, most favorites tee off with odds of at least odds +1000 or higher. They only need to start relatively well for these odds to reduce massively. It’s plausible that after a good first round, you can cash out to lock in a profit before the tournament ends.
There are often shock winners of Majors and other big tournaments. Few, if any, experts giving tips for how to bet on golf will find these players, so another smart strategy is to consider the top 10 and top 20 finish markets.
The Bottom Line
To succeed in sports betting, you need a solid strategy, including smart bankroll management, understanding odds, and finding the best lines. Advanced strategies like hedging and focusing on specific teams or leagues can help you get better value.
However, always gamble responsibly, set limits, and only bet what you can afford to lose to ensure an enjoyable and safe experience.
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References
- Chiefs Home | Kansas City Chiefs (Chiefs)
- Hedge Calculator: Calculate what you need to hedge (Hedge Calculator)
- Premier League Football News, Fixtures, Scores & Results (Premier League)
- Dutching Calculator – Equal Returns by Spreading Your Stake (Ace Odds)
- Los Angeles Lakers – Get the Latest Lakers Scores, Schedule & News (NBA)
