How to Bet on Politics

Betting on the party majority is where you choose the party that wins the most votes in Congress or the Senate.

This is a good market to use before presidential candidates are announced. Congressional elections are held every two years, as well, so provide a more regular opportunity to bet on politics.

Betting on who you think will be the next party leader in Congress or the Senate.

Currently, only the Republican Senate leader position is up for grabs, but over time, other markets will open up.

This market is where you can bet on parties or persons to become the first to hit a certain milestone.

The range of markets for this is huge but can include the first to announce candidacy or even the first to hit one million followers on social media.

This is betting on the turnout of voters for betting purposes.

In the US, it can be broken down across overall voter numbers and by state. Some even create markets for turnout numbers based on age brackets, although these are less common.

Politics is all about policies, and betting on whether certain policies will be in place by a set time is another popular politics betting market.

Interestingly, there have been several markets recently about legislation for online betting in the US, with markets targeting which will be the next state to pass legislation and legalize it.

Prop bets are arguably the most exciting bets in politics. Sportsbooks have been known to get pretty random with these markets.

Some of the most unconventional have been:

Exit polls are early indicators of how an election is shaping up.

However, as we know from the Trump/Clinton race in 2016, the polls aren’t always accurate. In fact, the sportsbooks were one step ahead of the exit polls for this race. Bookmakers’ predictions are often closer than exit polls suggest.

The US midterms occur halfway through the president’s term, seen as a two-year evaluation of how they’ve performed so far. The votes elect members of Congress, which includes 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 100 seats in the Senate, which is a third.

Senate elections occur every two years, with 100 seats in total from states across the country. Each state gets to vote for a Democrat or Republican candidate to lead them. Betting markets for these votes are vast, given that each state is covered. It will depend on the state as to the range of betting markets.

The US House of Representatives is voted on every two years to determine all 435 seats. Betting markets include selective state representation, whether Democrats or Republicans and the overall bet can be wagered on the political party that wins the most seats. This is often a fairly tight race, and it’s worth getting in early before lines move sharply near voting time.

The best betting strategy is to simply look for the best odds possible at all times. The amount of extra money you can make for placing the same bet can be massive, and you should never underestimate the increase in ROI for doing just this.

For example, Kamala Harris was +4000 to be next president back in February 2024. Now, just over three weeks from the election, she is -105.

Those bold enough to take a risk early in the year are holding some great tickets.

You need to stay in the loop, and you need reliable sources to ensure the news is reliable. Finding news sites that don’t lean one way or another is not easy, but they are out there.

We would recommend staying clear of social media for the most part unless you’re 100% sure that accounts have no bias.

You can use sites like the Associated Press, Reuters, National Public Radio, and PBS News Hour in the US. None of these outlets have political ties, so the news you get from there will be relatively unbiased.

The earlier you can respond to market movements, the more value you can find. Odds change quickly, but if you’re aware of upcoming press conferences, major announcements, or potential scandals early, you can take advantage from a betting perspective.

It’s also worth watching when poll data will be released. Again, there will be early speculation about how the polls look, especially when it comes to exit polls, so the sooner you act, the better.

Prop bets can be a great way to find value from markets where the outright winner is all but wrapped up.

They are speculative a lot of the time, which means the odds can be higher. While this increases risk, it also increases the bottom line when you win.

A good example would be using “and” bets, where you pick two outcomes for a single bet. One of the most common would be for a winner plus their margin of victory.

Senate and Congress betting markets are great for this, where you can bet on the winning party and the over/under margin of victory line.

Regardless of what you’re betting on, you need a solid bankroll management process.

The basics are that you should only bet what you can afford to lose, but you do this by managing a bankroll to lessen the blow when bets lose.