Apple is the largest company in the world and was the first to reach a $1 trillion market cap. The company’s stock is up 45% this year alone, showing that Apple is far from giving up its global dominance.
But is Apple stock a good bet for long-term investors over the remainder of the decade? In our Apple stock price prediction, we’ll explore the potential price of AAPL shares in 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2030. We’ll also examine the factors that influence Apple’s stock price and show investors how to buy Apple stock.
|Year||Median Price Prediction||Potential Low||Potential High|
Apple Price History
Apple was founded in Los Altos, California, in 1976. The company went public in 1980 with an initial public offering (IPO) price of $0.10 after adjusting for later stock splits. Apple has conducted 5 stock splits since 1980, the most recent of which was a 4-for-1 split in 2020.
The stock was relatively unexciting until around 2004-2005, after Apple had proven the success of the iPod and came to dominate the digital music industry. By 2007, the year that Apple introduced the iPhone, the stock was trading around $3 per share.
The iPhone changed everything for Apple. The stock more than doubled in value from 2007-2008, then grew steadily to a then-all-time high of $56 by 2018. That’s a nearly 1,800% gain in just over a decade. Apple became the first company to reach a $1 trillion market cap in 2018.
Apple’s growth turned exponential with the explosion of the tech market during the COVID-19 pandemic. At the market crash in March 2020, AAPL traded for a split-adjusted $57. Today, it trades for $180—a gain of more than 3x in as many years. Apple became the first company to reach a $3 trillion market cap in June 2023.
In fact, Apple stock has been seemingly unstoppable in 2023. Since the start of the year, the stock is up 45%. AAPL hit a new all-time high of $198.23 in July. At the current price of $180, Apple has a $2.84 trillion market cap.
Apple Stock Forecast 2023
Apple investors had an outstanding 2023. After the stock fell nearly 27% in 2022 amid a broader deflation of the tech industry, Apple is up 45% year-to-date with two months left to go in the year. Apple shares now trade around $180.
The growth has come even as Apple reported slowing iPhone sales and reduced revenue compared to last year. In its latest earnings report, CEO Tim Cook announced that Apple’s Q3 revenue had fallen to $81.8 billion from $83 billion in 2022. iPhone sales dropped 2%.
Importantly, however, Apple has found its footing in selling services such as iCloud and AppleCare Plus subscriptions. The Apple App Store has also continued to be a huge revenue driver for the company. The company reported all-time high revenue from services in Q3.
On top of that, Apple has expanded its dominance outside the US. The company saw its share of the smartphone market grow in countries like China, Japan, and India.
These trends are extremely important for Apple’s future growth and have played a major role in sending Apple’s stock price higher. Assuming little has changed in Q4—and there’s no reason to suspect that it has on such a short timescale—then Apple’s earnings next report in November could be a catalyst to send the stock even higher.
In fact, amid a broad resurgence in tech stocks, Apple could regain its $3 trillion market cap and set a new all-time high. We expect the stock to end the year around the psychologically important $200 threshold. Moreover, we expect Apple shares to carry a significant amount of bullish momentum into 2024.
Here’s a month-by-month breakdown of our AAPL price prediction for the remainder of the year:
Apple Stock Forecast 2024
We expect Apple to enter 2024 hot on the heels of a highly positive Q4 earnings report. The company should also have preliminary data about demand for the new iPhone 15, which can provide more insight into how strong iPhone sales will be in 2024.
The biggest news for Apple in 2024, however, will be around its Vision Pro augmented reality headset. The headset has the potential to be Apple’s biggest product launch since the iPhone and is expected to start shipping early next year.
It’s difficult to say how this product launch will go considering that demand for AR headsets has been lackluster for Apple’s competitors. However, Apple’s history shows that its innovative designs can create their own market category and there’s a lot of hype from Apple users around the world about the headset.
We’re bullish on the headset’s potential. Even if it’s not a hit at first, Apple’s lofty stock price is validated by its revenue from iPhone sales and services. While some analysts are considering the Vision Pro in their forecasts, it’s not contributing much to the stock price right now.
In the long term, Apple’s lead on AR technology could prove extremely important. Even if adoption is slow, AR has the potential to change work, social interactions, and everyday life in a way as fundamental as the smartphone changed the world. With the Vision Pro, Apple has planted a flag in the sand and shown that it plans to be on the leading edge of this new technology.
At the same time, iPhone sales should continue to grow abroad. Apple should also continue to grow its service revenue. In 2024, growth in these areas—Apple’s primary revenue-drivers—should help the stock continue its upward trajectory.
Apple will also benefit from steady or even lowering interest rates. Firms like Goldman Sachs predict that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates as soon as next year. This will encourage investments in stocks and particularly in the tech sector.
Considering all of these factors, we predict that Apple stock will end 2024 around $240, a 32.6% gain from its price today.
Apple Price Forecast 2025
We predict that Apple stock will continue its steady upward climb into 2025. There are two main tailwinds that we see in our Apple stock forecast for 2025.
The first is a reduction in interest rates. The Federal Reserve has targeted a 3.9% rate by the end of 2025, down from 5.6% today. Such a significant reduction in interest rates could trigger a broad investment shift from bonds back to stocks, and particularly to “risk-on” sectors like tech.
In other words, even without a material change in Apple’s business in 2025, the stock could see massive investment inflows that push the stock’s price up simply due to a more favorable macroeconomic environment.
The second factor in Apple’s favor is that young consumers today heavily prefer the iPhone over Android devices. According to a recent survey, 87% of teenagers prefer an iPhone.
As these teenagers age into adulthood and begin purchasing their own devices—and as today’s tweens age into teenagerhood and get their first phones—they will lean overwhelmingly towards iPhones. That ensures that demand for the iPhone and its accessories will remain steady in the US over the next several years.
Moreover, these young consumers will remain in Apple’s ecosystem. Once they have an iPhone, they’re likely to contribute to services revenue by buying apps in the App Store, purchasing iCloud storage, and more.
Based on these tailwinds, our Apple stock price prediction for 2025 is $290.
Apple Stock Price Prediction 2030
We’re also bullish in our Apple stock forecast for 2030, although there is a high degree of uncertainty in predicting any stock’s price nearly 7 years into the future.
Between now and 2030, we foresee the positive trends behind Apple continuing to build:
- Apple will continue to make inroads into developing countries in Asia, and especially the growing India market.
- Apple could earn greater penetration into growing markets in Africa.
- Apple will continue its dominance with younger consumers, ensuring a steady supply of new customers for Apple’s subscription services.
- Apple will be a major player in AR/VR services with future iterations of its Vision Pro headset.
Apple also has other opportunities that could help it maintain dominance in a changing world. For example, the company could partner with automakers producing electric vehicles to integrate Apple’s operating system or create additional incentives to purchase an iPhone.
Our Apple stock price prediction for 2030 is $510, which represents an $8 trillion market cap for Apple. We believe that Apple will continue to be the most valuable company in the world by a wide margin in 2030.
Potential Highs & Lows of Apple Stock Price
All stock forecasts include uncertainty. Apple could see an unexpected decline in iPhone sales during a key quarter or its operations could be impacted by government policies or conflict.
There is also uncertainty in how quickly interest rates will decline, which has a major impact on Apple’s stock price in 2024 and beyond.
We’re also uncertain about how successful Apple’s Vision Pro headset will be. If it’s a hit, it could be a major new source of revenue for Apple that drives the share price above our predicted prices. If it’s a flop, investors could question whether Apple still has the innovative capabilities that produced the success of the iPhone.
With these uncertainties in mind, we’ve set high and low price targets around each of our AAPL forecasts for 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2030. The table below shows these bounds:
|Year||Potential Low||Potential High|
What Do Other Analysts Predict for Apple Stock?
Let’s take a look at Apple stock predictions from a variety of other stock analysis and investment firms.
Apple Sales & Earnings Forecast
In its Q3 earnings report, Apple reported revenue of $81.8 billion and quarterly earnings per share of $1.26.
For Q4 2023, analysts predict revenue of $89.31 billion and quarterly earnings per share of $1.39.
For all of 2023, Wall Street analysts forecast revenue of $383.56 billion and earnings per share of $6.08.
Apple Stock Key Fundamentals
Here’s a breakdown of the fundamentals investors need to know about Apple stock:
|Market Cap||$2.84 trillion|
|Shares Outstanding||15.63 billion|
|Earnings Per Share||$5.95|
|Gross Profit||$166.82 billion|
What Influences the Price of Apple Stock?
The price of Apple stock is influenced by a number of factors including the company’s own performance and macroeconomic trends. Let’s take a closer look at the most important influences that investors in Apple shares need to be aware of.
iPhone sales are the biggest driver of Apple’s revenue—no other product category comes close. In Q3 2023, iPhone sales contributed 48.5% of the company’s revenue.
So, it follows that any change in iPhone sales is watched closely by analysts and investors. A long-term decline in iPhone sales could be disastrous for Apple’s stock.
The good news is that while iPhone sales slipped slightly in Q3 2023, the iPhone’s dominance appears to be in no danger. The iPhone remains incredibly popular among young people in the US and Apple has been aggressively growing its market share in Asian markets.
Still, investors should closely track iPhone sales to find out what will happen to Apple stock in the future. For years to come, the iPhone remains the strongest barometer of Apple’s overall health.
Subscription services are a relatively new product category for Apple, but they play an increasingly important role in the company. In Q3 2023, record-breaking subscription revenue contributed 25.9% of the company’s reported revenue.
Growth in subscription revenue is now priced into Apple’s stock, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty around how fast this revenue stream could grow. Rapidly increasing service sales, particularly among young US consumers and in emerging markets, could send Apple’s shares sharply higher.
Subscription services are also promising because Apple has a lot of pricing flexibility for these services. Once consumers own an iPhone, they’re highly incentivized to purchase services from Apple. So, consumers could prove to be sticky even if Apple decides to raise prices in the future.
New Product Releases
For more than a decade, the iPhone has been Apple’s flagship product. But additional product releases have helped Apple’s bottom line and, more important, encouraged consumers to stick with Apple.
For example, AirPods and AirTags both work seamlessly with the iPhone and other Apple products. Once customers own these accessories, they have a strong incentive to buy a new iPhone and additional Apple services rather than switch to an Android device.
With the Vision Pro headset release on the horizon, it’s especially important to consider how new product releases can impact Apple’s stock price. Historically, new launches haven’t done much to Apple’s share price in the short-term, but their positive impact becomes clear over a span of 2-4 years.
Growth in Emerging Markets
Asian markets like China and India represent huge opportunities for Apple, and investors are watching closely to see how the company fares in these countries. Right now, Apple has only a 22% market share in the Chinese smartphone market compared to more than 55% in the US. So, there’s a lot of room for growth.
Some degree of overseas growth is already priced into Apple stock. So, the share price can be very sensitive to policies or actions by Apple that increase the iPhone’s penetration into China and India. Increasing efforts by Apple to spread the iPhone through emerging markets in Africa could also send the stock price higher.
Apple’s stock price is also affected by macroeconomic trends, and especially interest rates. When interest rates are low, investment tends to flow into stocks. The tech sector as a whole is sensitive to interest rates, which is partly why the sector suffered losses in 2022 as the Federal Reserve raised rates.
Stable or falling rates could send Apple’s stock price sharply higher, which is why many investors are watching the Federal Reserve as closely as they’re watching Apple’s product decisions.
Apple Stock Forecast Indicators
There are several indicators that investors should consider when evaluating Apple’s potential future stock price.
Apple’s moving averages plot the price of the stock over a window of time. This window is usually 10 days, 50 days, or 200 days, but investors can use a window of any length.
It is typically considered a bullish sign if Apple stock is above its moving average. It’s even more bullish if the moving averages are aligned such that the 10-day average is greater than the 50-day average, and both are greater than the 200-day average.
Right now, Apple’s stock price is $180 and the 10-day average is $176.1, the 50-day average is $178.1, and the 200-day average is $168.1.
Relative Strength Index
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that indicates whether Apple stock is overbought (and could fall in price) or oversold (and could rise in price). Typically, an RSI above 70 is interpreted as overbought and an RSI below 30 is oversold. RSI is usually evaluated using 14 days worth of price data, but can be modified to examine longer timeframes.
At this time, Apple’s 14-day RSI is 56, indicating that Apple is neither overbought nor oversold.
Fear and Greed Index
The Fear and Greed index is a market-wide index that reduces whether investors are buying or selling stocks to a single number on a scale from 0-100. A score closer to 0 indicates that investors are fearful and are selling more than they’re buying. A score closer to 100 indicates that investors are greedy and are buying in a frenzy.
Currently, the Fear and Greed index is 39, indicating that investors are slightly fearful.
Is Apple a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Based on our Apple stock prediction, we believe Apple is a strong buy.
We see the company’s dominance of the smartphone market continuing for the foreseeable future, especially as Apple penetrates further into emerging markets and maintains its hold on younger consumers in the US. Apple can also benefit from new product launches like the Vision Pro headset and from falling interest rates.
Here’s a breakdown of the bullish and bearish cases for Apple stock:
- Apple has strong momentum going into the end of 2023 and is expected to announce strong sales of its iPhone 15 in its Q4 earnings report.
- Subscription and services revenue hit an all-time high in Q3 2023 and is anticipated to play an increasing role in Apple’s bottom line, potentially offsetting any long-term decline in iPhone sales.
- Apple is growing its market share in large Asian markets, especially China and India.
- Falling interest rates in 2024 and following years could increase investment inflows into the tech sector, including Apple stock.
- The Vision Pro headset sets Apple up to be a leader in AR technology.
- Apple could develop future partnerships with automakers to capitalize on the shift to electric vehicles.
- Apple’s supply chains and growth potential are highly exposed to China, which has growing geopolitical tensions with the US.
- iPhone sales and Apple’s overall revenue declined year-over-year in its latest earnings report.
- Apple could face antitrust lawsuits over its App Store practices, Apple Pay, and device prices.
- Apple is dependent on consumer discretionary spending for most of its revenue and could be significantly affected by an economic recession.
Where to Research Apple Stock
Deciding whether to buy AAPL stocks is easier said than done. Many experienced investors are now looking to alternative data to provide a broader scope when assessing the market potential of a stock. This is where AltIndex comes in.
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If all this wasn’t enough, AltIndex boasts an 80% win rate with its AI stock picks. Its fully-fledged algorithms evaluate thousands of equities on a daily basis, leaving investors with accurate stock signals in 2023.
AltIndex ranks stocks based on a 0 to 100 scale. The AI score uses both AI and alternative data to understand whether a stock could outperform the market in the next six months. The AI score is also built using both fundamental and alternative indicators.
Interested in buying AAPL stock but unsure of its short and long term market potential? Every day, AltIndex’s smart AI system analyzes a wide range of signals from heaps of companies, with the intention of forecasting their future peaks and troughs. From these predictions some stocks will receive either a sell or buy signal which are based on a window of up to 9 months.
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Apple is the most valuable company in the world and it’s up more than 45% year-to-date. According to our Apple stock price prediction, this stock has plenty more room to run. We think AAPL shares could reach $200 by the end of the year, $240 by the end of 2024, and $510 by the end of 2030.
Investors who are bullish on Apple can research AAPL stocks via AltIndex’s pioneering new platform. Interested users can sign up for free and start using AI-based alternative analysis to drive their investments forward.