Gold Price Forecast 2024, 2025 & Beyond: Is Gold a Good Investment?

Following a correction of below $2,000 per ounce in the middle of February, the price of gold rebounded in early March and has repeatedly broken its records since then.

The World Gold Council (WGC) attributed the gold price rally to the prospect of the US Federal Reserve’s decision to proceed with its rate cut this year and escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.

WGC’s data showed the gold price gained 8.1% in March, closing the month at $2,214/oz. However, the rally continued, and the yellow metal reached a fresh record high in early April at $2,431.46/oz.

Gold price today, as of April 15, was at around $2,357 per ounce, about 3% lower than its April record high. It has gained about 18% so far this year.

Gold Price Year-to-Date Performance.
Gold Price Year-to-Date Performance. Source: Trading Economics

Will gold extend its rally for the rest of the year? We examine key factors affecting the gold price prediction for 2024 and beyond and offer a long-term gold price forecast from leading market analysts.

Key Takeaways

  • A robust central banks’ purchases have supported the price of gold in 2023 amid a high-rates environment.
  • Gold price has so far been defying possible delays in the Fed’s rate cut.
  • Geopolitical tensions are set to be the key drivers shaping the long-term gold price outlook.
  • Strong physical demand, particularly from central banks, is expected to support gold prices in the long term.

Gold Price Forecast Summary

Year Forecast Range Key Factors
2024 $2,206 – $2,500/oz
  • Fed rate cuts
  • Central bank purchases
  • Geopolitical tensions
  • US-China tensions
2025 $1,950 – $3,000/oz
  • High demand in physical markets
  • Middle East and European conflicts
2026-2030 General sentiment: Upbeat trend Geopolitical tensions

Economic trends

Gold Price Analysis: Surviving High Interest Rates in 2022-2023

Gold futures reached a record high of $2,069.40 on August 6, 2020, amid COVID-19 concerns, but then saw a decline from 2020 to 2022. In 2021, prices dropped about 3.5% after a 21% rise in 2020, as central banks, including the Fed, tightened monetary policies to combat inflation, boosting the US dollar and Treasury yields over non-yielding gold.

Despite aggressive interest rate hikes, gold limited its losses to 0.31% in 2022. In 2023, gold started strong at $1,835.8/oz and gained about 8% in the first quarter, driven by fears of a global recession due to continued rate hikes. It nearly reached its all-time high in April, at around $2,048.

The metal’s gains were initially limited due to factors like the Fed’s pause in rate hikes from July and talks of rate cuts, coupled with a rising US dollar. However, gold stabilized at around $1,900 and rallied in the last two months of 2023, ending the year with a 13.45% gain versus a 0.13% decline in 2022.

Let’s take a closer look at the key factors that sustained gold prices throughout 2023.

Central Banks Purchase Supports Gold Prices

Central banks have been actively filling up their pots of gold since last year amid escalating geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty. Gold demand from the central banks has become a key driver of gold in recent years, according to the World Gold Council.

In 2023, central bank demand reached 1,037 tons, falling 4% from a record of 1,082 tons in 2022, based on data provided by the World Gold Council (WGC). However, it marked the second consecutive year of buying 1,000 tons.

“The vast majority of purchases continued to come from emerging market central banks, many of whom have been regular buyers in recent years,” WGC said in the Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2023.

Reported central bank buying bank was broad-based
Reported central bank buying bank was broad-based Source: GoldHub

ANZ Research analysts David Hynes and Soni Kumari noted on February 20 that central banks have been diversifying away from sovereign bonds and opting for gold instead. This shift is due to aggressive monetary tightening, especially by the Federal Reserve, following the 2022 inflation shock.

The monetary tightening has strengthened the USD, leading to exchange rate fluctuations and lower bond prices due to higher yields. Consequently, other central banks suffered significant valuation losses on their foreign currency assets. ANZ Research estimates that around 50% of the decline in Asian central banks’ forex reserves in 2022 was due to valuation losses.

China’s return to the gold market to boost reserve has also contributed to the strong gold purchases of central banks. People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reclaimed its title as the single largest gold buyer in 2023, accumulating a total of 225 tons over 2023, taking its total gold reserves to 2,235 tons, WGC data shows.

Lukman Leong, a commodity and foreign exchange analyst based in Jakarta, told Techopedia:

“The gold purchases by central banks, particularly by China, have sustained the gold price during the de-dollarization issue. I believe that China’s central bank will continue to buy gold.”

Strong central banks’ purchases have supported overall physical gold demand amid stable buying of jewelry and weak purchases for investment. Jewellery reached 2,092.6 tons in 2023, a little change from 2,088.9 tons in 2022, supported by China’s demand, according to data provided by WGC.

Investment demand fell 15% tons to a 10-year low at 945.1 tons in 2023 from 1,113 tons in 2022, according to WGC data.

Holdings of gold ETFs down 244t, led byEurope*
Holdings of gold ETFs down 244t, led by
Europe* by GoldHub

Falling US Treasury Yields

The Fed’s signal of a rate cut in 2024 sent US Treasury yields to fall in the last two months of 2023, increasing appeal for the non-yielding gold.

On December 27, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 3.78%, the lowest since July 2023, as expectations grew that the Federal Reserve would decrease interest rates in early 2024.

The note’s yield recovered its losses over January before dropping to its lowest levels for 2024 on February 1 at 3,86%, Trading Economic’s data shows.

However, the note’s yield has recovered, reaching a five-month high of 4.6% on April 11, as demand for safety amid heightened geopolitical tension outweighed the impact of hawkish expectations for the Fed. On April 15, the note’s yield eased to 4.5%.

Trading Economics expected the note’s yield to reach 4.11% in Q2 2024 and average at 3.85% in 12 months.

US 10-Year Note Bond Yield 1-Year Chart.
US 10-Year Note Bond Yield 1-Year Chart. Source: TradingEconomics

Geopolitical Tensions Provide a Boost

Fresh conflicts in the Middle East, which were triggered by Hamas’ attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, have undoubtedly given a further boost to gold prices. The new flare-up in the Gaza Strip, which has been ongoing for more than six months, has sparked concern that it may spread to the whole region.

Following the October 7 attack and subsequent Israeli offensive on Gaza, Hamas’ allies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen, have launched retaliation actions against Israel and its allies.

Houthi, for example, have been attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea with missiles and drones, prompting shipping companies to take a longer and costly route via Africa.

Hezbollah has also traded cross-border fire with Israel in support of Hamas.

In October, gold gained 6.8%, supported by new tensions in the Middle East, according to WGC.

Drivers for the Gold Price in 2024

Before we dive into analysts’ forecasts, let’s take a look at factors that will affect the gold price outlook for 2024.

US Rate Cut Remains Key

The possibility of a US interest rate cut has been the main driver of gold since last year. The Fed has kept the Federal Funds Rate steady since July 2023 at 5.25% to 5.50% in the recent meeting on March 20.

In the meeting, the Fed’s Chairman Jerome Powell said the US policy rate was likely at its peak for the tightening cycle. Powell said it could begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year if the economy evolves broadly as expected.

However, the stronger-than-expected US inflation rate for March 2024 raised concerns about the possibility of the Fed cutting rate this year. On April 10, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index in March eased to 3.5% from 3.2% in February.

ANZ Research analysts David Hynes and Soni Kumari said the market is pricing an early and deeper rate cut, pushing prices higher. They maintained the expectation that the Fed would start easing its grip on monetary policy from H2 2024. However, Hynes and Kumari warned that steady rates and falling inflation increase the risk of real rates rising, which could be a headwind for gold.

In its latest forecast on April 11, ING forecast that the Fed could start cutting its rate in Q3 2024 to 5.25% and to 4.75% in Q4. The Fed is expected to continue to lower its rate until hitting 3.50% in Q4 2025.

ING’s Head of Head of Commodities Strategy Warren Patterson and Commodity Strategist Ewa Manthey said in a gold price forecast 2024 note on April 11:

“US Federal Reserve policy is gold’s main driver. There’s optimism it’ll soon cut rates, but it wants to see more evidence that inflation is a tamed beast. We’re expecting interest rate cuts this year, but if it continues its cautious approach, gold prices risk pulling back.”

The Fed’s Federal Open Market Commitee (FOMC) is set to hold a meeting on April 30/May 1.

Central Bank Purchase to Remain Strong

The World Gold Council Central expects central banks to continue buying at an exceptional rate, surpassing the pre-2022 annual average of around 500 tons. In 2023, central banks’ purchases nearly matched the 2022 level.

The council wrote in its gold outlook 2024 on February 7:

“We therefore expect another year of strong buying overall, and if the price action over the last two years is anything to go by, central bank buying in excess of the longer-term average is very likely to provide solid price support.”

​​According to WGC’s data, central banks bought a total of 19 tons of gold in February, dropping 58% from 45 tons in January 2024. In total, global central banks added 64 tons over January and February, a 43% decline from the same period in 2023 but a fourfold increase from 2022.

Similarly, ING predicted that central banks would continue to be purchasers in 2024 due to geopolitical tensions and the economic outlook.

Ewa Manthey of ING wrote a note on 8 April:

“Gold tends to become more attractive in times of instability, when investors pile into safe-haven assets as a hedge against the economic climate, geopolitical tensions or inflation. We believe this is likely to continue for the rest of this year.”

Uncertainty Over Geopolitical Tensions

Analysts expected geopolitical tensions, which are currently ongoing in the Middle East with the war between Israel and Hamas, as well as Russia’s war in Ukraine, would continue well into 2024.

So far, there have been few signs the conflicts will abate anytime soon.

On April 14, Iran launched an unprecedented attack on Israel in retaliation for Israel’s strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, earlier this month, which resulted in the deaths of the country’s top commanders. Iran has been a staunch supporter of Hamas and the Palestinians’ fight for independence.

The Iranian attack has heightened concerns that the Middle East could descend into wider and more severe conflicts.

In late March, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hamas for the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, the immediate and unconditional release of hostages, and the urgent need to increase aid flow into Gaza. However, truce talks between Hamas and Israel have reached an impasse.

In Europe, Ukraine has been grappling to tackle Russia’s bombardment on its energy infrastructure as ammunition is running low.

Ariston Tjendra, a Jakarta-based independent commodity analyst, told Techopedia in an interview on 12 April.

“All these tensions encourage players to find safe assets. Big institutions, mainly central banks, to buy physical gold.”

In addition to the conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, Lukman Leong expects tensions between the United States and China to persist.

For several years, trade battles, spy accusations, China’s territorial claim in the South China Sea, and US backing for Taiwan, a democratically governed island that China claims as its territory, have strained relations between the world’s two largest economies.

The upcoming US presidential election in November is likely to pit former President Donald Trump against incumbent President Joe Biden. During his presidency from 2016 to 2020, Trump imposed import duties on Chinese products.

Leong said:

“The US election is expected to use China’s card, which in turn could heighten tension with the country. This will support gold.”

Gold Price Forecast 2024

 

Analysts/Agency

Gold Price Forecast 2024
Previous

(21 February)

Latest

(15 April)

ANZ Research $2,043/oz $2,243
Lukman Leong $2,200 – $2,300/oz $2,500
Ibrahim Assuaibi (Laba Forexindo Berjangka) $1,830 – $2,100/oz $2,350-$2,400
Wahyu Laksono (Traderindo) $1,900 – $2,250/oz $2,000 – $2,350
ING $2,081/oz $2,200/oz
TD Securities Q1: $2,000/oz

Q2: $2,050/oz

Q3: $1,975/oz

Q4: $1,950/oz

Q1: $2,050/oz

Q2: $2,175/oz

Q3: $2,075/oz

Q4: $2,000/oz

Trading Economics Q1: $2,046.66/oz

12 months estimate: $2,112.48/oz

Q2: $2,273.85/oz

12 months estimate: $2,341.40

BMI $1,950/oz $2,100/oz

Taking into account all the drivers, most analysts have revised their gold price forecast 2024, predicting the yellow metal stay above the $2,000 level.

ANZ Research, in its gold forecast 2024 on April 12, expected the precious metal to trade at an average of $2,243/oz, up from its previous forecast of $2,043/oz in February and also higher from the estimated $1,917 in 2023.

ANZ Research’s Hynes and Kumari, in the note on April 12, said that the pushing-back in the Fed’s timing of rate cut had not weakened gold. Other factors that support the higher forecast include a strong central banks’ purchase driven by heightened geopolitical tension and investment demand.

“The recent price rally lifted well above our forecast, so a retracement is likely in the short term. Having said that, we reiterate our long-term positive view.”

Leong also revised its gold rate prediction for 2024 to $2,500 from his previous estimate of between $2,200 to $2,300 in February.

Leong told Techopedia in a phone interview on April 12:

“There are no changes in fundamentals. It’s classic reasons, central banks purchase, particularly the latest data shows that China continues to buy gold. The Fed’s rate cut is still uncertain, but investors believe it’s just a matter of timing.”

Assuaibi of Laba Forexindo Berjangka saw gold price to trade higher at $2,350 to $2,400/oz in 2024, compared to his previous forecast at $1,830 to $2,100/oz on the back of the Fed’s rate cut in the second half and continuing conflicts in the Middle East as well as in Europe.

Laksono of Traderindo also lifted his gold forecast 2024 to $2,000 and $2,350/oz from a forecasted $1,900 and $2,250 in February.

“The possibility of Fed rate cuts is still fluctuating and remains a debate at the time,” he said.

ING’s Manthey wrote on April’s 11 note:

“We expect gold prices to trade higher this year as safe-haven demand continues to be supportive amid geopolitical uncertainty with the ongoing wars and the upcoming US election.”

In the latest gold price forecast in March 2024, TD Securities predicted gold prices to peak at $2,175 in Q2 2024 up from its previous prediction in December of  $2,050/oz in Q2. The company projected gold to decline to $2,075 in Q3 and $2,000 in Q4 2024.

Meanwhile, economic data provider Trading Economics saw gold prices to trade at $2,273.85/oz by the end of Q2 2024, as of April 15. Based on its global macro models and analysts’ expectations, it estimated gold to trade at $2,341.40/oz in 12 months, up from $2,112.48/oz projected in February 2024.

Fitch Solutions’s BMI revised its gold rate prediction for 2024 to $2,100/oz in February, up from $1,950/oz in January.

BMI’s analysts wrote in the note published on March 21:

“We expect prices to trade within the range of $1,950/oz – $2,250 in the coming months, with most of the upside occurring in H2 2024.”

 

Analysts/Agency

Gold Price Forecast 2025
Previous

(21 February)

Latest

(15 April)

ANZ Research $2,023/oz $2,493
Lukman Leong $2,600 – $2,700/oz $3,000
Ibrahim Assuaibi (Laba Forexindo Berjangka) $1,750 – $2,000/oz $2,200
Wahyu Laksono (Traderindo) $2,300 – $2,400/oz $2,300 -$2,500
ING $2,100/oz $2,310/oz
TD Securities n/a Q1 to Q4: $2.000
Trading Economics 12 months estimate: $2,112.48/oz 12 months estimate: $2,341.40
BMI $1,800/oz $1,950

Analysts have mixed projections for the gold price in 2025. Nonetheless, they maintain bullish gold price predictions for 2025.

Lukman Leong predicted that gold could trade at $3,000 or more on robust physical demand, particularly from China.

Leong told Techopedia:

“We know that gold demand in physical markets is very high. Whatever is being produced is sold out and taken mostly by China’s central bank. China’s gold reserve is still less than 10% of its total foreign exchange reserve. It will take a long time for the country to build up its gold reserve to 10% (of its total foreign exchange reserve).”

Traderindo’s analyst Wahyu Laksono expected the metal could trade in a higher range of $2,300 to $2,500/oz in 2025, up from $2,300 to $2,400 in his earlier forecast in February.

“Gold is in consolidation phase potentially to form a base before the next bullish,” said Laksono.

ING and ANZ Research are also upbeat on their gold rate prediction. ING revised its April’s gold price forecast 2025 to average $2,310/oz in 2025, rising from an estimated average of $2,100/oz in 2024.

ANZ Research’s gold price prediction 2025 saw the yellow metal average at $2,493/oz, up from its previous projection of $2,023/oz.

On the other hand, Laba Forexindo Berjangka’s Director Ibrahim Assuaibi has a different opinion on the gold price forecast 2025. He projected that gold prices could soften in 2025 at $2,100/oz as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Europe are projected to ease. However, Assuaibi’s latest gold price forecast for 2025 was up from February’s estimate of  $1,750 to $2,000/oz.

BMI also expected the price of gold to end its rally and ease to $1,950/oz in 2025 from a projected $2,100 in 2024.

Gold Price Predictions for the Next 5 Years

Analyst Gold Price Forecast for the Next 5 Years
Wahyu Laksono $2,550 – $3,000/oz
Lukman Leong $3,000/oz
Ibrahim Assuaibi $2,200/oz

Few analysts provided gold price predictions for the next 5 years as drivers to gold prices are more difficult to predict due to their volatility and complexity. However, they maintain a bullish outlook on the price of gold for the long term.

Traderindo’s Laksono has maintained its forecast that gold could trade at between $2,550 to $3,000/oz. He said:

“Many things could happen in five years, including global economic crises. So being bullish [about gold] is rational.”

Lukman Leong shared Laksono’s optimistic gold price outlook for the next five years and projected that a gold price of $3,000 could be achievable within the time frame. He said:

“Short-term factors, such as de-dollarization, geopolitical concerns, and China demand will continue in the long term.”

Sources did not provide gold price predictions for the next 10 years because of the substantial uncertainty associated with forecasting such a lengthy period of time.

Ariston Tjendra, a Jakarta-based independent commodity analyst, has stated that the long-term trajectory of the gold rate will depend on the extent of correction that the metal experiences in the coming years.

Tjendra told Techopedia in a phone interview on April 12:

“Gold could either maintain its high range or re-enter the mid-range. However, the geopolitical situation has not shown any signs of improvement, and global economic growth is slowing in the post-COVID pandemic era. Several countries are grappling with debts and inflation. As long as inflation remains a challenge for countries, gold will continue to be attractive.”

Is Gold a Good Buy Today?

Since ancient times, gold has been the go-to investment for protection in times of uncertainty, whether economic hardship or security turmoil. Gold prices, like many other commodities, will always fluctuate.

Most of the analysts cited for this article predicted that gold prices would rise further in the following years.

According to Trading Economic data, while gold prices fluctuate like other commodities, they have been steadily rising over the last ten years.

Gold 10-Year Performance.
Gold 10-Year Performance. Source: Trading Economics

 

The Bottom Line

Gold prices are expected to continue rising in 2024, with the prospect of reaching new highs in the second half of 2024 as central banks ease monetary policy and geopolitical tensions escalate.

Geopolitical uncertainties may be the primary driver of gold in the longer term beyond 2025.

It’s essential to conduct in-depth research and invest solely within your financial comfort zone, acknowledging the possibility of total loss. Every investment carries risk, and you should be prepared for the absence of safeguards in adverse scenarios.

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Fitri Wulandari
Financial Journalist
Fitri Wulandari
Financial Journalist

Fitri has over 20 years of experience in financial journalism. She has contributed to various international media outlets, including Dow Jones Newswires, Bloomberg, and Reuters, before joining Techopedia. She spent the first 15 years of her career covering commodity and energy news, later transitioning to general financial writing. These days, she conducts interviews with industry players and analysts and reports on international conferences. Fitri holds a degree in International Relations, supporting her expertise in financial journalism. She occasionally serves as a guest trainer for journalistic training and as a moderator for panel discussions.