Netflix Stock Forecast 2025-2030: Back to All-Time Highs?

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Streaming giant Netflix (NFLX) has seen its share price hit an all-time high after impressing analysts with strong third-quarter results.

The NFLX stock price collapsed a couple of years ago due to fierce competition, low subscriber growth, and macroeconomic factors following COVID-19. But its valuation has soared since improving the quality of its product, cracking down on password sharing, and increasing revenue.

The Netflix stock price stood at $772.07 as the stock market closed on October 21, 2024. This is an incredible 340% higher than its $175.51 level in the summer of 2022.

Netflix (NFLX) 5-Year Performance

However, the question is: Can it go higher? In our Netflix stock forecast for 2025-2030, we look at what could be in store and reveal analysts’ expectations for Netflix stock.

Key Takeaways

  • Netflix’s stock price hit an all-time high of $772.07 on October 21, 2024.
  • Wall Street analysts rate Netflix as a ‘moderate buy’ according to MarketBeat, as of October 22, 2024.
  • Netflix will start screening live NFL games later this year.
  • The consensus view is that the Netflix projected stock price could increase slightly by almost 1% over the next 12 months, according to TipRanks, as of October 22, 2024.
  • Global streaming paid memberships have risen 14.4% to 282.72 million year-over-year, an increase of more than 35 million.

Summary of the Latest Netflix Stock Predictions

Netflix Stock Forecast
(as of October 22, 2024)
1-Year Forecast 2027
(Oct 2027)
5-Year Forecast
(Oct 2029)
MarketBeat $747.70
WalletInvestor $872.06 $1,099.24 $1,331.72
TipRanks $778.54
CoinCodex $953.26 $561.23 $1,502.10

Netflix Stock Analysis

It has been a tremendous 12 months for investors in the US entertainment giant.

The Netflix stock price had risen 93% over the past year from just over $400 to an all-time high of $772.07 as the stock market closed on October 21, 2024.

The price is also up almost 60% year-to-date and has risen by an impressive 180% over the past five years.

It has achieved trailing returns of 92.56% for the year to October 21, 2024, according to Morningstar. This compares to 40.37% for the index and the entertainment industry’s 41.54%.

Netflix (NFLX) 1-Year Performance

The Latest Netflix News & Key Drivers to Consider

A key part of any NFLX stock forecast is looking at the latest Netflix news and any influential performance drivers.

Third Quarter Results

The company recently announced strong third-quarter results, with revenue up 15% year-over-year and the operating margin rising to 30% from 22%.

Its letter to shareholders also highlighted “a string of hits this quarter,” including new series like The Perfect Couple, Nobody Wants This, and Tokyo Swindlers.

“Engagement, our best proxy for member happiness, remains healthy,” it stated. “Through the first three quarters of 2024, view hours per member amongst owner households (the clearest view of engagement trends post the introduction of paid sharing) increased year over year.”

The company’s figures also show global streaming paid memberships have risen 14.4% year-over-year to 282.72 million. That’s an increase of five million over the last quarter.

“We’ve delivered on our plan to reaccelerate our business, and we’re excited to finish the year strong with a great Q4 slate, including Squid Game S2, the Jake Paul/Mike Tyson fight and two NFL games on Christmas Day,” it added. “As we look ahead to 2025, we’re focused on improving every aspect of our service and continuing to deliver healthy revenue and profit growth.”

Netflix Financial Highlights & Q4 Forecast

(in millions except per share data) Q3’23 Q4’23 Q1’24 Q2’24 Q3’24 Q4’24 Forecast
Revenue $8,542 $8,833 $9,370 $9,559 $9,825 $10,128
Y/Y % Growth 7.80% 12.50% 14.80% 16.80% 15.00% 14.70%
Operating Income $1,916 $1,496 $2,633 $2,603 $2,909 $2,190
Operating Margin 22.40% 16.90% 28.10% 27.20% 29.60% 21.60%
Net Income $1,677 $938 $2,332 $2,147 $2,364 $1,847
Diluted EPS $3.73 $2.11 $5.28 $4.88 $5.40 $4.23
Global Streaming Paid Memberships 247.15 260.28 269.6 277.65 282.72
Y/Y % Growth 10.80% 12.80% 16.00% 16.50% 14.40%
Global Streaming Paid Net Additions 8.76 13.12 9.33 8.05 5.07
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities $1,992 $1,663 $2,213 $1,291 $2,321
Free Cash Flow $1,888 $1,581 $2,137 $1,213 $2,194
Shares (FD) 450 444.3 441.7 439.7 437.9

Source: Netflix

Price Changes

Netflix is also refining its monetization structure in order to ensure it has a “range of prices and plans” to meet a variety of needs.

Prices have risen in a few countries in EMEA plus Japan, while increases are scheduled for Spain and Italy.

“We phased out the Basic plan in the US and France this past quarter, and we’ll do the same in Brazil later in Q4,” it added.

Netflix is also approaching the second anniversary of launching its advertising business, with the ad plans allowing it to offer a lower price point for consumers.

“It’s still very early for our advertising initiative,” it added. “As we said last quarter, it takes time to build a new revenue stream and we don’t expect ads to be a primary driver of our revenue growth in 2025.”

Positive Outlook

Netflix has revealed that fourth-quarter guidance implies that revenue will grow 15% year-over-year for the full year 2024.

It stated: “We’re pleased that we’ve reaccelerated our growth and, as we head into 2025, we expect to deliver solid revenue and profit growth by both improving our core series and film offering while investing in new growth initiatives like ads and gaming.”

The company declared that it wants to be the first place that members go to for their entertainment.

“With an audience of 600 million and growing, we’re programming for more tastes, cultures and languages than any company has ever done before,” it added. “It’s why we invest in a wide variety of TV shows and films, and work so hard to make them great.”

Fourth Quarter Shows

A string of programmes will be available for members in the fourth quarter, including Squid Games S2, Outer Banks S4, and Love is Blind S7.

There will also be new dramas such as Black Doves (starring Keira Knightley), comedies like No Good Deed (starring Lisa Kudrow and Ray Romano), and Man on The Inside with Ted Danson.

It added: “In Latin America, we have two of the biggest, most ambitious shows ever made in the region premiering this winter: 100 Years of Solitude based on the iconic novel by Gabriel García Márquez from Colombia; and Senna, a biopic about one of the greatest Formula 1 drivers of all time from Brazil.”

Launch of Netflix House

In mid-June 2024, the company announced the opening of its Netflix House immersive experiences in two US shopping centers.

Netflix House
Netflix House enables users to experience favorite shows and movies in real life.

The company has vowed to “bring some of our most beloved titles to life” when they open next year at King of Prussia in Pennsylvania and Galleria Dallas.

Marian Lee, Netflix’s Chief Marketing Officer, said: “We’ve launched more than 50 experiences in 25 cities, and Netflix House represents the next generation of our distinctive offerings. The venues will bring our beloved stories to life in new, ever-changing, and unexpected ways.”

First Move Into American Football

Netflix announced in early June 2024 that it would be screening live NFL (National Football League) games over Christmas this year.

The Christmas Day matches will be the Super Bowl LVII-winning Chiefs vs Steelers and the Ravens vs. Texans.

In a statement, Bela Bajaria, Chief Content Officer at Netflix, said the company had “decided to take a big bet” on live content.

“There are no live annual events, sports or otherwise, that compare with the audiences NFL football attracts,” she wrote. “We’re so excited that the NFL’s Christmas Day games will be only on Netflix.”

Separately, an article in AdWeek claimed the company would be charging more than $5 million for sponsorship packages.

Netflix Stock Forecast: Analyst Views

What are the Netflix stock predictions of industry observers? Do they believe it’s worth considering and what do they have as their Netflix price target?

Cynics said there is no loyalty among streaming platforms, and everyone who wants to use them has already signed up, pointed out Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

He said: “Netflix’s latest results show that is not true. It continues to attract more people, keep existing customers happy, while also diversifying its income streams.”

Mould pointed out that Netflix had beaten earnings forecasts for the third quarter in a row and that the company had signaled plans to put prices up in more territories.

“Making incremental changes to the cost of a monthly subscription is a big test for a company’s pricing power,” Mould said. “Netflix’s platform is so ingrained in people’s lives that it should be able to push up prices without causing a rush of people canceling their membership.”

Of course, if people do think twice about a higher price, Netflix has a clever backup plan in the form of its cheaper, advertising-led tier, which could persuade them to stay.

“They might have to put up with regular marketing messages, but that is standard practice for all streaming platforms now,” he added.

Earlier this year, Mould told Techopedia that the company looked in far better shape than it did a couple of years ago.

“Netflix has done a tremendous job of bouncing back from the woes of 2022, when competition, password sharing and a post-pandemic lull in subscriber growth hammered the share price, which fell by more than two-thirds from peak to trough.”

Matthew Dolgin, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, has recently upgraded his fair value estimate from $500 to $550.

In his NFLX stock forecast of October 18, 2024, he praised the company but pointed out that the market was already pricing in a lot of potential good news. He wrote:

“While the firm’s persistent near-term strength exceeds our expectations, and we expect Netflix to remain well ahead of competitors, we think the market is extrapolating recent amazing results too far into the future.”

Dolgin believes some markets are “approaching saturation,” and while he sees opportunities to enhance revenue per subscriber, he doesn’t think this will offset decelerating subscriber additions.

“We also expect much more moderate margin expansion than has occurred in 2024 because we expect Netflix will increase content spending at a similar rate as sales to help maintain its wide lead over competitors and strengthen its moat, which we rate as a narrow today,” he added.

According to Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, the company’s “best-in-class” original content stops customers from switching to rivals.

“While it’s expensive to make, it does keep eyeballs on screens in a bigger way,” she said. “Add in a cash-generative business and Netflix can increase content spending when peers are having to pull back.”

Streeter also pointed out that the introduction of an ad-supported product is proving more popular than many could have hoped.

“It allows Netflix to penetrate new markets and tap into users who are priced out of the fully paid service,” she said. “But filling all the new ad space is a challenge. While this is a new challenge for Netflix, we expect it to improve over time; it won’t want to leave ad revenue lying on the table.”

Separately, although the balance sheet carries a fair amount of debt, it isn’t in bad health.

“Free cash flow is healthy and maintaining balance sheet flexibility is a key priority,” she explained. “Share buybacks, which are not guaranteed, have been the favored way to return excess capital to shareholders but investing back in the business is the real goal for now.”

Netflix Stock Predictions 2025-2030: What Will Happen to the NFLX Stock Price Next?

So, is Netflix a buy, hold, or sell? The stock is rated as a ‘moderate buy,’ according to the views of 35 Wall Street analysts compiled by MarketBeat as of October 22, 2024.

Twenty four have it down as a ‘buy,’ and nine see it as a ‘hold,’ while two analysts have ‘sell’ recommendations in place.

  • The consensus view is that the stock could slip 3.16% to $747.70 over the coming year, although opinions are very divided.
  • While the most optimistic analysts believe the NFLX stock price could hit $925, others have penciled in a substantial fall to $545.

The following table shows the latest analysts’ Netflix stock expectations.

Date Analyst Firm Action Rating Change Price Target Percentage Change
10/18/2024 The Goldman Sachs Group Set Target $750.00 -1.83%
10/18/2024 Wolfe Research Reiterated Rating Outperform ➝ Outperform
10/18/2024 Barclays Reiterated Rating Underweight ➝ Underweight $550.00➝

$550.00

-27.08%
10/18/2024 Bank of America Boost Target Buy ➝ Buy $740.00 ➝ $800.00 +6.06%
10/18/2024 Evercore ISI Boost Target Outperform ➝ Outperform $750.00 ➝ $775.00 +2.75%
10/18/2024 TD Cowen Boost Target Buy ➝ Buyl $820.00 ➝ $835.00 +9.89%
10/18/2024 BMO Capital Markets Reiterated Rating Outperform ➝ Outperform $770.00 ➝ $825.00 +8.82%

Source: MarketBeat

Netflix stock is also rated as a ‘moderate buy’ by TipRanks, based on the views of 36 stock market analysts.

Their consensus Netflix stock prediction 2025 is that the stock could nudge up almost 1% to $778.54 over the coming year, although NFLX predictions ranged from $550 to $925.

Meanwhile, Netflix has been branded a “good long-term (one year) investment” by the algorithmic forecasts of Wallet Investor.

It believes the stock could rise to $872.06 over the next 12 months. This would represent a 13% increase on its closing price of $772.07 on October 21, 2024.

Wallet Investor’s longer-term 5-year Netflix share price forecast estimates the NFLX price to soar to $1,331.72 by October 2029.

This is such a fast-moving sector that analysts are reluctant to issue a Netflix stock forecast 2030. However, CoinCodex puts the stock price at $648.24 by October 2030.

It’s worth noting that analysts’ and algorithm-based Netflix projections might prove to be wrong.

Is Netflix a Good Buy?

Before investing in Netflix stock, it’s important to do your homework. One helpful tool is Benzinga Pro, a financial research platform that provides real-time market information for active traders and investors. 

The platform’s advanced scanner can spot technical patterns, and the customizable newsfeed filters help ensure you don’t miss any critical updates.

Benzinga Pro Homepage

Benzinga Pro is well-known for its features, which are designed to give you time-sensitive information. One such feature is the Audio Squawk feature, which offers quick updates on the stock changes. Their sentiment indicators help users understand how breaking news might affect a stock’s price. This is especially useful for Netflix given how sensitive the company is to subscriber growth and content performance news.

The Benzinga Pro subscription starts at $37 per month for basic access, and the more detailed Essential plan costs $197 per month. They also offer a 14-day free trial, so investors can test these tools before deciding.

The Bottom Line: Should I Invest in Netflix?

There is no doubt that investors have fallen back in love with Netflix in a big way, with the NFLX stock price trading at all-time highs.

The company is also investing heavily in its content and is reaping the rewards in terms of subscribers. Around five million have been added since the last quarter.

The question is: can the shares continue to rise? As our Netflix stock price prediction 2030 illustrates, there are some concerns that it has almost hit a ceiling.

While the consensus view is that it’s a ‘moderate buy,’ some analysts fear that the stock price could slip slightly over the coming year.

A lot will depend on the company’s subsequent results and whether it can maintain the company’s recent positive momentum.

Do your own research and always remember your investment decision depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in the stock market, the spread of your portfolio, and how comfortable you feel about losing money.

The information in this article does not constitute investment advice and is meant for informational purposes only.

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Rob Griffin
Financial Journalist
Rob Griffin
Financial Journalist

Rob is a seasoned journalist with over three decades of experience spanning across business and finance journalism. Before embarking on a freelance career in 2002, he contributed his expertise to the business desks of notable publications such as The Guardian, Yorkshire Post, Sunday Business (now Business Post), and Sunday Express. Throughout his freelance journey, Rob has been a regular contributor to a wide range of national newspapers, consumer magazines, trade publications, and websites. His work has appeared in titles such as The Independent, Citywire, Daily Express, FT Adviser, and Sunday Telegraph, covering an array of subjects from market trends to…