Nio Stock Forecast 2025-2030: Will NIO Rebound?

Nio, the Chinese electric carmaker, has endured a miserable time as NIO stock price has slumped 40% since the start of the year.

A combination of fierce competition and trade barriers has put a dampener on the Nio stock price in 2024.

However, the loss-making company appears to be generating decent revenues and has been tipped to potentially break even by 2026.

Here we look at the outlook for the company, the factors that may drive demand, and the Nio stock price target of Wall Street analysts.

Table of Contents Table of Contents

1. Key Takeaways
2. Summary of the Latest NIO Stock Predictions
3. NIO Stock Analysis
4. Second Quarter Results
5. Latest Nio News
6. Is China's Demand for EVs Strong?
7. Nio Stock Prediction 2025: What Do The Analysts Say?
8. NIO Stock Predictions: Where Will The Price Go Next?
9. The Bottom Line: Should I Invest in NIO?
10. FAQs
11. References

Show Full Guide

Table of Contents

1. Key Takeaways
2. Summary of the Latest NIO Stock Predictions
3. NIO Stock Analysis
Show Full Guide
4. Second Quarter Results
5. Latest Nio News
6. Is China's Demand for EVs Strong?
7. Nio Stock Prediction 2025: What Do The Analysts Say?
8. NIO Stock Predictions: Where Will The Price Go Next?
9. The Bottom Line: Should I Invest in NIO?
10. FAQs
11. References

Summary of the Latest NIO Stock Predictions

Here, we examine the Nio price target of analysts and algorithmic forecasters to give you an idea of what investors may experience over the coming years.

NIO Stock Analysis

The first stage in our Nio stock long-term forecast is looking to see how the company’s shares have performed and what has been the main driver.

As the stock market closed on September 18, 2024, the Nio stock price stood at $5.02, which is 19% below its flotation price of $6.26 back in September 2018.

It’s also 92% below the all-time high closing price of $62.84, which was achieved on February 9, 2021, according to MacroTrends.

Over the past year, Nio stock has fallen 51% from $10.31 to $5.02. Year to date, meanwhile, it’s suffered a 40% fall from the $8.42 level at the start of January 2024.

Second Quarter Results

The most recent Nio news concerned the company’s second-quarter results, which were published in early September 2024.

• Vehicle sales were RMB15,679.6 million (US$2,157.6 million) in the second quarter, which was 118.2% more than the corresponding period in 2023.

• Total revenues, meanwhile, came in at RMB17,446.0 million (US$2,400.6 million), which was 98.9% higher than the second quarter of 2023 and up 76.1% on the first quarter of 2024.

• Overall, there was a net loss of RMB5,046.0 million (US$694.4 million) in the second quarter of 2024, 16.7% less year-over-year and 2.7% less than the first quarter of this year.

Record Breaking Achievement

The company revealed 57,373 vehicles were delivered in the second quarter of 2024, which was 143.9% higher than the same period in 2023.

This figure consisted of 32,562 premium smart electric SUVs and 24,811 premium smart electric sedans.

According to William Bin Li, founder, chairman, and chief executive officer of Nio, this was a “record-breaking delivery” that secured more than 40% of the market share in the battery electric vehicle segment priced above RMB 300,000 in China.

He said: “NIO’s core competitive advantages in technology, product, service, and community are earning increasing recognition from users, driving the continued strong vehicle sales performance.”

Outlook For The Third Quarter

The company also provided the market with more recent data that showed 20,498 and 20,176 vehicles were delivered in July and August 2024, respectively. As of August 31, 2024, cumulative deliveries of Nio vehicles reached 577,694.

Nio expects deliveries of vehicles in the third quarter of 2024 to be between 61,000 and 63,000, according to its latest results.

How Did Analysts Respond?

Nio’s second quarter revenue was at the high end of its guidance, according to the most recent outlook for Nio stock from Vincent Sun, senior equity analyst at Morningstar.

“Vehicle margin also met the company’s guidance of a low-teens level, gaining six percentage points year-over-year to 12%, benefitting from larger delivery and lower battery cost,” he wrote.

Sun also pointed out that Nio’s second-quarter revenue almost doubled year-over-year, which he mainly attributed to the 1.4 times gain in the quarter’s vehicle delivery and the 11% fall in average selling price.

“We expect the company will break even in 2025 with CNY 1 billion in net profit as growing economies of scale and lower unit production costs will lead to an improved outlook for vehicle sales profit.”

Latest Nio News

Battle With EU Over Tariffs

The European Commission has rejected offers by Chinese electric vehicle makers to adjust their prices to avoid higher tariffs, according to reports.

The Financial Times claimed EU officials had to protect European manufacturers from being undercut by low-cost, China-made rivals.

It follows the European Commission’s announcement in July 2024 regarding the duties on imports of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from China.

ONVO Brand Makes Its Debut

Earlier this year, Nio officially unveiled a second brand known as ONVO, which will have a focus on families.

It also revealed the L60, its first product and a smart electric mid-sized family SUV. The first deliveries are reportedly expected this month (September 2024).

Is China’s Demand for EVs Strong?

Almost one in three cars on the roads in China are set to be electric by 2030 and almost one in five in both the US and European Union, according to the International Energy Agency.

Its annual Global EV Outlook, published earlier this year, predicted that global electric car sales would reach around 17 million by the end of 2024.

Sales grew 25% in the first quarter, compared to the same period in 2023, while the number sold globally in that period is similar to the total for all of 2020.

“In 2024, electric car sales in China are projected to leap to about 10 million, accounting for about 45% of all car sales in the country,” it stated.

The report also noted that growing electric car exports from Chinese automakers, which accounted for more than half of all electric car sales in 2023, could help force down prices.

“Chinese companies, which are also setting up production facilities abroad, have already seen strong sales of more affordable models launched in 2022 and 2023 in overseas markets,” it explained. “This highlights that the composition of the main EV-producing economies is diverging considerably from the traditional auto industry.”

2026 To Be EV Tipping Point

The year 2026 has emerged as a “tipping point for an acceleration in EV adoption,” according to S&P Global Mobility.

Its latest EV Trends report has predicted that more than one in four new passenger cars sold will be electric by 2030.

“Many major vehicle manufacturers worldwide have signaled the end of an era of internal combustion engines (ICE) as the transition to zero emission vehicles (ZEV) is ramped up,” it stated.

However, it highlighted potential stumbling blocks that can only be solved by a joint effort between automakers, utilities, government, and private property owners.

“Despite the rapidly growing choices EV consumers have, and the unprecedented loyalty rates among EV return buyers, the industry as a whole still needs to tackle consumers’ range anxiety, particularly for those without a garage or those traveling long distances,” it added.

Nio Stock Prediction 2025: What Do The Analysts Say?

Next we look at the NIO stock projections of analysts. Are they optimistic about the outlook for Nio stock and what is the most realistic Nio stock price prediction?

Chinese Brands Are Now Becoming More Visible Across Europe

Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, believes the electric vehicle market is now seeing increased levels of competition.

She told Techopedia:

“Car makers have had a pretty torrid time of late trying to adjust to changing legislation and a cash strapped consumer. But the turmoil has opened up a gap that Chinese car makers like Nio have raced through.”

Hewson believes these manufacturers are increasingly making their mark, which could prompt changes from more established players.

“These brands are now becoming more visible across Europe, despite the imposition of tariffs,” she said. “Legacy automakers have had to adjust, to rethink their plans, whilst Nio et al have pushed down harder on the accelerator.”

Renewed Enthusiasm for Nio

According to Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, there has been renewed enthusiasm for Nio.

She told Techopedia:

“The electric car maker has shown its still making deep inroads in the Chinese market, where it now holds more than a 40% share.”

Streeter pointed out that sentiment surrounding the company had been downbeat, given the softening of demand for EVs around the world, amid economic headwinds.

“There have also been concerns about the huge losses the company has been incurring as it has invested heavily into manufacturing and infrastructure,” she said. “Lowering average selling prices also appeared to have unnerved investors as the company faced more competition.”

However, she pointed out that attempts to cut costs in response to the slowdown in EV sales appears to have reaped rewards, with improved vehicle margins.

“Its delivery numbers also impressed, with revenue from vehicle sales alone rising by 118% in the second quarter,” she said. “Nio appears to be making better progress towards profitability.”

However, challenges remain, such as China’s economic weakness continuing to weigh and consumers in other markets still wary about higher EV costs.

“The company is aiming to head off this challenge with new models under its mass market name Onvo, with different brands in the pipeline to meet demand in other countries,” she added. “But as fresh trade barriers are thrown up importing Chinese EVs into North America and Europe, it’s likely to hamper attempts to make models more appealing cost-wise.”

Nio Could Be Undervalued for Long-Term Investors

Vincent Sun, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, currently has a fair value Nio projected stock price of $7.60.

In his Nio share price forecast, as of September 6, 2024, he gave a relatively upbeat appraisal of the company’s prospects. He wrote:

“Despite intensifying competition, even in the premium segment, we believe Nio is undervalued for long-term investors.”

While acknowledging that vehicle margin was likely to “remain under pressure” in the near term, given price competition, he expects it to continue the sequential recovery trend.

“Management indicates that the margin will further expand in the second half due to lower battery costs, and the company targets to record a midteens-level vehicle margin in the fourth quarter,” he added.

Next we’ll look at the Nio expected stock price of analysts and algorithmic forecasts for the coming year and over the longer term. So, is NIO a buy, hold, or sell?

NIO Stock Predictions: Where Will The Price Go Next?

What are the latest analysts’ Nio stock expectations? Do they believe the Nio stock price will rise or fall?

Well, the stock is rated as a ‘hold’, according to the Nio stock forecast of 11 Wall Street analysts, compiled by MarketBeat.

Nio is rated a ‘moderate buy’, according to the 11 analysts’ views compiled by TipRanks. Their consensus view is for the Nio future stock price to hit $5.97 next year.

Meanwhile, the algorithmic forecasts of Wallet Investor class Nio as a “bad long-term (one year) investment, with the price flatlining at $0 in 2025.

The following table shows the latest analysts’ NIO stock predictions as of September 19, 2024.

How about the longer-term Nio stock predictions?

Most analysts are reluctant to look too far into the future, which is why NIO stock price prediction 2030 is viewed as unrealistic.

However the Nio stock price prediction 2030 of Coincodex has the price rising to $1,472.36 by the start of January 2030.

Note that analysts’ and algorithm-based NIO stock forecasts might prove to be wrong.

The Bottom Line: Should I Invest in NIO?

Investors in Nio certainly have every reason to feel glum, with the stock price having slumped by 40% since the start of 2024 and down 51% on where it was a year ago.

A combination of factors are behind the dismal performance, including losses incurred up to now, fierce competition, and trade barriers.

However, analysts believe there are reasons for cautious optimism that could make an investment in Nio stock worth considering.

For example, demand for electric vehicles is expected to grow significantly over the next five years and this should put existing manufacturers in a strong position.

Nio is also continuing to improve on both its delivery numbers and revenue, which has led to some analysts penciling in a break even point at some stage in 2026.

FAQs