Platinum Price Forecast 2024, 2025, 2030: Will the Downtrend Reverse?

What is the rarest precious metal in the world? If you answered gold, the all-time favorite precious metal, that’s incorrect. Platinum is actually the rarest precious metal and another popular commodity among investors.

In recent years, however, the price of platinum has not reflected its rarity. Despite being famously used in catalytic converters to help cars emit fewer harmful emissions, it has been struggling to break out from the weak trend of the past two years due to subdued demand, particularly from the auto industry. Auto manufacturing makes up 44% of platinum’s demand.

While its precious metal cousin, gold, has repeatedly beaten its own record highs, platinum prices are still working their way up to $1,000 – about less than half of its all-time high price of $2,290 per ounce in March 2008. It briefly reached over $1,000/oz early this year before falling again.

Platinum 5-Year Price Performance Chart.
Platinum 5-Year Price Performance Chart. Source: Trading Economics

The deficit in the platinum markets in recent years, however, has offered support amid weak demand.

Will platinum prices recover this year?

We look into factors that will affect the metal’s prices and explore analysts’ latest short- and long-term platinum price predictions.

Key Takeaways

  • The price of platinum is expected to increase in the coming years as constrained supply persists.
  • Platinum demand for converters in internal combustion engines (ICE) will persist for a long time despite the growing electronic vehicles (EVs) segment.
  • Sustainably weak platinum prices could further constrain output.
  • The hydrogen economy is a potential new source of demand for platinum.

Platinum Price Predictions Summary

Year Forecast Range Key Factor
2024 $898.33 to $1,058
  • Sustained deficit
  • Limited mine supply
  • Substitution demand for palladium
  • Fed rate cuts
2025 $847.03 to $1,273/oz
  • Sustained deficit
  • Continued strength in industrial demand
  • Demand from ICE automotive
2030 and beyond $1,250/oz

General sentiment: bullish

  • Persisted constrained supply
  • Rising demand from the hydrogen economy

Platinum Prices in 2023: A Sharp Fall Despite Deficit

In the turbulent four years since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the price of platinum has been on a roller-coaster ride.

Platinum managed to recover from the lows of below $600 per ounce induced by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 and even gained 11% overall in 2020 due to a widening deficit.

Lower supply due to COVID-19-related mine closure, the temporary shutdown of Anglo American Platinum’s Anglo Converter Plant (ACP) in South Africa, and reduced recycling caused a deficit of 932,000 ounces in the platinum market in 2020, according to industrial group World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC). It was the largest annual deficit on record.

The lower supply outstripped the weak demand from the auto industry, jewelry, and industrial sectors as the COVID-related restrictions slowed activities.

In the following year, although platinum price hovered above $1,000/oz in the first half of 2021, it dropped more than 10% for the full year.

Weak demand from the automotive sector, which struggled with semiconductor shortages and logistical bottlenecks, combined with a surplus in the market as mine production recovered, dragged down platinum prices in 2021. Data from the WPIC showed that the platinum market recorded a surplus of 1.29 million ounces in 2021.

In 2022, platinum price recouped its losses, gaining about 12% in the year, which was in line with gains in other precious metals. Expectations that demand from China, the world’s biggest auto market and production hub, might improve after the country lifted its three-year strict COVID restrictions boosted the market amid continued surplus.

Platinum price gave up its gains in 2023, dropping almost 7% in the year despite the market swinging back to deficit on the back of robust demand and constrained output. South Africa, home to 70% of global PGM output, faced ongoing electricity supply shortages, strikes, and planned closures.

According to WPIC, the platinum market recorded a deficit of 878,000 in 2023. Total platinum supply fell by 2% while demand surged by 25% year-on-year.

Wahyu Laksono, the founder of the Jakarta-based trader community platform Traderindo, said the looming recession in the US due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary tightening and slower-than-expected China’s economic recovery hurt industrial metals, including platinum and palladium.

Laksono told Techopedia.com:

“Gold and silver benefited from the recession risks and slowing China’s economic growth because both serve as safe-haven assets. But platinum and palladium, along with other industrial metals, were still waiting for certainties in the global economy.”

The growing use of platinum and palladium-free electric vehicles has also reduced the market share of ICE vehicles in recent years.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the share of electric cars in total global car sales tripled from 4% in 2020 to 14% in 2022. The agency expected EV sales to reach 14 million cars by the end of 2023, up from more than 10 million in 2022.

Source: The International Energy Agency (IEA)
Source: The International Energy Agency (IEA)

Key Factors Affecting Platinum Prices in 2024

At the time of writing on March 26, platinum price has dropped more than 8% since the start of the year, trading at around $903.9/oz. It briefly reached $1,015/oz in early January before dropping in the following weeks.

Let’s examine what factors will affect platinum price predictions in 2024.

Platinum Year-to-Date Performance Chart.
Platinum Year-to-Date Performance Chart. Source: Trading Economics

Deficit to Persist

The platinum market was expected to remain in deficit in 2024. In its latest quarterly report on March 6, WPIC projected the deficit to narrow to 418,000 ounces.

The group estimated supply to fall 1% to 7.08 million ounces in 2024 from 7.13 million ounces in 2023. On the other hand, demand was expected to fall by 6% to 7.5 million tonnes, still outstripping supply.

ANZ Research’s analysts Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari said the mine production is at risk of declining as lower prices have started impacting the profitability of PGM (platinum, palladium, and rhodium) producers. They wrote on February 16:

“This has seen mining companies announce a series of cost-cutting measures and deferring capital expenditure for new projects. This raises risk for mine supply, particularly when mine and refined production is already at depressed levels.”

In its report on December 14, 2023, WPIC estimated the PGM basket price declined about 40% in 2023, leading to lower profitability across PGM miners. At a spot basket price of $1,250/oz, around 25% of PGM mine production generated negative cash margins.

ANZ Research estimated global platinum mine production to grow only 3% to 5.7 million oz in 2023.

Palladium-to-Platinum Switch

Platinum and palladium can substitute each other as both have physical and chemical properties fit for autocatalysis. From the 2000s, the substitution palladium-to-platinum ratio between the two metals in autocatalysts moved to 1:1 from previously 2:1. Platinum is mostly used in catalysts for diesel vehicles. In contrast, palladium is used in gasoline vehicles.

Platinum-for-Palladium Substitution
Caption: Platinum-for-Palladium Substitution

Since late 2017, palladium’s price premium over platinum has made the latter a favored substitution for auto manufacturers.

On average, palladium could be two times higher than platinum, peaking at $3,000 in 2022. However, on February 8, 2024, palladium price briefly fell below platinum for the first time in five years. On that day, palladium dropped to $869.6/oz, while platinum stood at $874.5.

Palladium prices have been dropping as more consumers switch to palladium-free electric cars.

Hynes and Kumari from ANZ Research wrote:

“Platinum is receiving an extra boost as auto manufacturers are switching from palladium-the fo-platinum in gasoline vehicles. This looks like it will be a structural shift in platinum demand, offsetting the falling share used for diesel vehicles in European markets. The metal will also benefit from regulatory changes that require higher platinum loadings to reduce emissions.”

WPIC estimated that demand from vehicle production will grow at a modest 1% in 2024, from 16% in 2023, amid ongoing inflationary pressure and high rates. In addition, the anticipated falling market share of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle production to 64% from 70% in 2023 will exert downward pressure on platinum demand, according to the group.

In addition to economic factors, Hynes and Kumari said supply security was another reason behind the shift from palladium to platinum. Russia produces 38% of global palladium from its nickel mines. The palladium market has been experiencing a structural deficit for the past few years, which has led to demand rationing.

Furthermore, WPIC cautioned about growing risks that the substitution rate of platinum for palladium could stall now that platinum price moves towards a parity or premium to palladium.

At the time of writing on March 26, platinum was trading at $903.9/oz compared to palladium, which was trading at $1,011/oz.

Platinum vs. Palladium 5-Year Performance Chart.
Platinum vs. Palladium 5-Year Performance Chart. Source: Trading Economics

However, reversing the substitution towards palladium could take years, as changing the technology is a lengthy process.

Therefore, the switch usually takes place in a new car model. WPIC estimated that the gradual substation from platinum to palladium could start in 2026 if the palladium market does enter a surplus in 2025.

The group foresees platinum for palladium autocatalyst substitution is expected to reach 700,000 ounces in 2024, up from an estimated 620,000 ounces in 2023.

Fed’s Rate Cuts

ANZ Research’s Hynes and Kumari said platinum will also get support from rising gold prices when the US Federal Reserve starts its rate-cutting cycle.

Markets had expected that the Fed would begin lowering rates as early as March. However, the US inflation rate, which has stubbornly stayed above the Fed’s target of 2%, has diminished this optimism. Now, the market anticipates that the rate-cutting cycle will start in the second half of this year.

Higher rates strengthened the US dollar, weighing on industrial metals over the past two years. This strengthened dollar raises commodity prices for buyers using local currencies.

Platinum Price Forecast 2024

Analyst/source Platinum Price Forecast 2024
ANZ Research $1,058/oz, up from $945 in 2023
Wahyu Laksono $800 – $1,000
Trading Economics $898.33/oz end of Q1 2024; $847.03 in 12 months’ time

ANZ Research projected that the price of platinum would continue climbing over 2024, ending the year at $1,200/oz in December 2024, from $950 by the end of Q1 2024. Overall, it expected the precious metal to trade at an average of $1,058/oz in 2024, up from an estimated average of $945/oz in 2023.

ANZ Research’s Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari wrote in their platinum price forecast for 2024 on February 16:

“If the price holds above $900/oz, a recovery looks possible towards $936/oz. However, a sustained price above $950/oz is required to reverse the downtrend started in late December last year. Price near USD1,000/oz is a strong resistance, and a break of this will mark the beginning of a bullish trend.”

However, they predicted platinum could fall towards $850/oz if the prices break below $900.

Wahyu Laksono estimated platinum price to trade between $800 and $1,000 per ounce in 2024, based on a persistent deficit.

In contrast, Trading Economics did not share ANZ Research’s upbeat forecast. The economic data provider expected platinum to trade at $898.33/oz by the end of Q1, falling to $847.03 in 12 months’ time.

Platinum Price Forecast 2025

Analyst/source Platinum Price Forecast 2025
ANZ Research $1,273/oz
Wahyu Laksono $900 – $1,100
Trading Economics $847.03/oz in 12 months’ time from Q1 2024

As for 2025, ANZ Research expected the platinum price to trade higher at $1,273/oz, up from an average of $1,058/oz in 2024.

Laksono of Traderindo foresees the metal could range between $900 to $1,100 per ounce as the market could remain undersupplied. He said:

“The main positive fundamental factor for platinum is deficit. Analysts are confident that the supply side will support platinum in the future through the decline in mining output.”

Platinum Price Forecast 2030: Betting on Hydrogen Economy

The exact platinum price forecast for 2030 is unavailable now because of multiple unpredictable factors that could affect platinum prices over such a long period.

However, the World Platinum Investment Council projected platinum fundamentals would remain attractive because the platinum markets are expected to record consecutive years of deficit.

WPIC estimated the market would remain undersupplied, with deficits between 500,000 ounces and 612,000 ounces between 2025 and 2027.

On one side, mine supply could be at risk of further decline if weak prices continue to force miners to operate at negative margins. According to WPIC, because of the decline in the price of platinum group metals (PGM) in 2023, around 25% of primary PGM supply is generating negative margins at 2022 costs.

On the other hand, platinum demand is anticipated to remain resilient.

Demand for platinum in internal combustion engine (ICE) automotive is expected to persist for a significant period, supported by sustained strength in industrial demand and the potential for further growth from the hydrogen economy, according to WPIC.

These factors would bode well for platinum prices.

Traderindo’s Laksono predicted platinum price could reach as high as $1,250 per ounce by 2028. He said:

“The opportunity to go above $1,000 is very much open in the long term.”

Laksono noted that the hydrogen economy in the decarbonization race will be a new source of demand for platinum, although it may not be significant.

“Producers and analysts expect that the metal has the potential to get support from the hydrogen economy through fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) which will compete with battery electric vehicles (BEVs).”

According to the World Platinum Investment Council, fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), which use platinum-based hydrogen (H2) fuel cells to generate electricity, will account for 75% of projected hydrogen-related platinum demand.

Projected Share of Hydrogen-Related Platinum Demand.
Projected Share of Hydrogen-Related Platinum Demand. Source: The World Platinum Investment Council

ANZ Research’s Hynes and Kumari also shared Laksono’s upbeat view on the hydrogen economy. They said:

“Platinum is expected to have a starring role in the hydrogen economy. Platinum demand from the hydrogen economy is not significant yet, but it is set to rise over the coming years. We believe it will eventually provide a demand source that will compensate for losses from the declining share of ICE vehicles.”

The Bottom Line

Platinum price has upside potential in the coming years, as constrained mine supply and healthy industrial and automotive demand are expected to keep the platinum markets in deficit until at least 2028.

The hydrogen economy, with the emergence of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), represents a promising source of demand for platinum. However, its success will depend on the widespread adoption of FCEVs for heavy-duty transportation.

Do your own research and always remember your investment decision depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in the commodity market, the spread of your portfolio, and how comfortable you feel about losing money.

The information in this guide does not constitute investment advice and is meant for informational purposes only.

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Fitri Wulandari
Financial Journalist
Fitri Wulandari
Financial Journalist

Fitri has over 20 years of experience in financial journalism. She has contributed to various international media outlets, including Dow Jones Newswires, Bloomberg, and Reuters, before joining Techopedia. She spent the first 15 years of her career covering commodity and energy news, later transitioning to general financial writing. These days, she conducts interviews with industry players and analysts and reports on international conferences. Fitri holds a degree in International Relations, supporting her expertise in financial journalism. She occasionally serves as a guest trainer for journalistic training and as a moderator for panel discussions.