Silver Price Forecast 2024-2030: Will It Test New Highs?

After surging to its highest level in more than 11 years at $32.8 per ounce (oz) in the third week of May, the silver spot price eased to below $30. However, the price remained elevated, trading between $28 and $29/oz for much of the second and third quarters.

The Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated interest rate cut on September 18 gave the precious metal a boost, pushing it above $31/oz, though still shy of its 11-year high. Silver has struggled to recoup its losses since its continued decline from an all-time high of $49.51 per troy ounce in April 2011.

A combination of geopolitical concerns, such as wars in Ukraine and the Middle East showing little sign of abating, and China’s latest measures to bolster its lackluster economic recovery, has fueled a silver price rally.

At the time of writing on September 23, silver’s price per ounce was hovering at $31.43. It has gained more than 29% so far in 2024, outperforming gold, which has risen nearly 27% year-to-date (YTD).

Will silver be able to maintain its lead over gold? In this article, we explore the silver forecast for 2024, 2025, and beyond up to 2030, taking into account its latest development and factors affecting its price.

Table of Contents Table of Contents

1. Key Takeaways
2. Silver Price Analysis: Factors Affecting the Metal in 2024
3. Silver Price Forecast 2024: Is Silver a Good Investment?
4. The Bottom Line: Is Silver a Good Investment?
5. FAQs

Show Full Guide

Table of Contents

1. Key Takeaways
2. Silver Price Analysis: Factors Affecting the Metal in 2024
3. Silver Price Forecast 2024: Is Silver a Good Investment?
Show Full Guide
4. The Bottom Line: Is Silver a Good Investment?
5. FAQs

Silver Price Forecast Summary

Silver Price Analysis: Factors Affecting the Metal in 2024

Throughout 2024 so far, silver prices have remained resilient, even though the Fed has been wavering in its decision to begin its rate-cutting cycle early. Stronger industrial demand from the renewable energy sector and electronics has compensated for uncertainties on the monetary policy side.

Before we jump to the silver price predictions, let’s quickly recap factors that may influence the price of the precious metal in 2024.

The Fed May Cut Rate Faster Than Planned

The US central bank finally delivered the long-awaited rate cut on September 18, implementing a larger cut of 50 basis points (bps) compared to the market’s expectations of a modest 25 bps. Gold and silver investors had been on the edge of their seats, eagerly anticipating the US central bank’s easing of monetary policy.

Initially, markets anticipated that the Fed would start cutting interest rates as early as March. However, the resilience of the US economy amidst high interest rates and inflation levels that remained above the Fed’s desired target prevented the Fed from swiftly changing course, leading it to opt for a strategy of ‘higher for longer.’

At the press conference on September 18, the Fed Chairman Jeremy Powell said the median projections from members of the Federal Reserve’s Board show the federal funds rate will be 4.4%  by the end of this year and 3.4% by the end of 2025 if the US economy evolves as expected. The rate cut will continue until it reaches 2.9% in 2026 and 2027, according to the Fed’s economic projections.

Chair Powell said:

“As the economy evolves, monetary policy will adjust in order to best promote our maximum employment and price stability goals. If the economy remains solid and inflation persists, we can dial back policy restraint more slowly. If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we are prepared to respond.”

The Fed expected the US economy to grow steady at 2% until 2027 while inflation was projected to fall to its target of 2% in 2026 from 2.3% in 2024, according to its recent economic projections. Meanwhile, unemployment was predicted to fall to 4.2% in 2027 from 4.4% in 2024.

ANZ Research’s Senior Economist Tom Kenny and Economist Arindam Chakraborty in a note on September 23 expect the Fed to deliver 25bp cuts at successive meetings with a total of 200bp easing in store for the cycle. This would leave the fed fund rate range at 3.25-3.50%. The market is pricing a total of 250bp in cuts, they said.

According to Kenny and Chakraborty:

“The risks are that the Fed will cut faster than it is projecting. Policy remains restrictive and this is likely to weigh on labor market conditions. Powell has stated that the Fed’s objective now is to preserve the strength of the labor market.”

Economists at Dutch lender ING in a note on September 18 revealed a similar view that the market projected the Fed would go harder and faster, with a 2.9% Fed funds rate priced a full 12 months ahead of the Fed’s projections that it could be reached in 2026.

ING economists James Knightley, Francesco Pesole, and Padhraic Garvey wrote in the note:

“Our forecasts are broadly in line with what the Fed is indicating – get rates down to 3.5% or a bit below by next summer on the basis that prompt action from the Fed allows the US economy to avoid recession just as it did in the mid-1990s under Alan Greenspan. That view still holds, but we certainly acknowledge that the jobs market outlook is more concerning and the risks are indeed skewed to the Fed having to do more, more quickly.”

Julia Khandoshko, CEO at the European broker Mind Money, added that if the Fed continues to cut the rate or stick to a smooth monetary policy, it will increase silver’s attractiveness as investors switch to non-yielding assets, such as precious metals.

“However, if the rate cut turns out to be a sign of deeper economic problems, it could have a negative impact on demand for industrial metals, including silver,” Khandoshko told Techopedia by email on September 20.

Solar PV Expansion to Support Silver Demand

Apart from its use as an investment, silver is a strategic metal with a wider range of industrial and medical applications compared to gold. Only 10% of gold output goes to industrial use, while over 50% of silver production is used in industrial applications.

Because of its industrial usage, silver prices are very susceptible to worldwide economic activity. Slowing economic growth can decrease demand for new building construction and vehicle manufacturing. As a result, slow economic growth could reduce demand for silver.

The Silver Institute projected that industrial demand to grow by 4% to a new record high in 2023, led by demand in the green economy, such as investment in solar photovoltaic (PV), power grids, and 5G networks.

In 2024, the Silver Institute forecasts global silver demand to rise by 2%, benefiting from the continued strength of industrial uses. The institute expected industrial fabrication to rise by 9%, reaching another all-time high, propelled by an anticipated 20% in the PV market and a healthy offtake from other industrial segments. A recovery in the demand for jewelry and silverware will further increase the demand for silver.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), solar PV remained the main driver of global renewable capacity expansion in 2023, accounting for 65% of renewable energy growth. In 2024, the IEA forecasted that global solar PV was set to grow by over 7%, reaching 310 gigawatts (GW).

With such growth, ANZ Research estimated an 8% YoY increase in silver offtake in the solar sector.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, has been the primary driver of demand for most basic and precious metals. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China accounts for more than 60% of global electric vehicle sales.

The country also accounted for over 95% of global solar PV manufacturing capacity at 450 gigawatts (GW) in 2022, data from IEA showed. The agency predicted global solar PV manufacturing capacity to double in 2023 and 2024, with China again taking up 90% of the increase.

Tom Bailey, head of research at HANetf, the issuer of the Sprott Energy Transition Materials UCITS ETF (SETM), shared a similar outlook. The SETM ETF provides exposure to miners of energy transition materials such as silver, copper, cobalt, and nickel.

Bailey told Techopedia by email on June 14:

“Demand for silver should increase as countries continue to pursue decarbonization policies. Silver is important for solar photovoltaic panels due to its high electrical conductivity and thermal efficiency.”

He went on to say that the increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to drive silver demand, given its higher utilization in EVs compared to conventional cars.

“We believe these are long-term drivers of silver demand and, therefore, price,” he said.

Undersupply to Persist

Silver, like gold, has a limited supply, which provides solid fundamentals because supply often lags demand. Pure silver mines are rare as the metal is often found along with other minerals, such as copper, zinc, and aluminum.

In 2023, global silver mine production fell by 1% to 830.5 Moz after a labor strike resulted in a four-month operation suspension at Newmont’s Peñasquito mine in Mexico, the leading silver mining country, according to the Silver Institute.

The institute forecast that the total silver supply is likely to continue decreasing in 2024 by one percent, compared to a drop of 0.5% in 2023. As a result, the precious metal market will see a projected deficit of 265.3Moz in 2024, widening from 142.2Moz deficit in 2023 and the second-largest deficit in more than 20 years. In fact, the Silver Institute’s data showed that the market has been undersupplied since 2021.

In January, the industrial group warned that silver output faces risks from the suspension of zinc mines due to weak prices.

Sharing a similar projection, ANZ Research expects the market deficit to widen to 138Moz in 2024, as supply growth is insufficient to meet annual demand.

The markets and economic research subsidiary of the Australian lender ANZ estimates that silver mine production will rise by 3% YoY to reach 867Moz in 2024, while demand is expected to be around 4-5%.

“This market deficit is likely to drive further withdrawals from inventories, supporting prices,” said ANZ Research’s Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes and Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari in a note on April 16.

According to London Bullion Market data, silver volume held at the LBMA vault has continued to deplete. Silver inventories have dropped to below one million troy ounces since June 2022. As of August, LBMA vaults store 843.81Moz of silver, down from 877.88Moz a year ago.

Renew ETFs Silver Investment

ANZ Research’s Hynes and Kumari anticipated that the prospect of the Fed starting its easing cycle in H2 2024 and a dramatic rise in gold prices will likely boost the investment demand for silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) after investors ditched silver-backed ETF holdings in 2022 and 2023 due to aggressive monetary tightening.

According to ANZ Research, the disinvestment of silver-backed ETFs reached 137 million ounces in 2022 and 45 million ounces in 2023. As of the date of this publication, tactical investors have added 160 million ounces of fresh longs.

Hynes and Kumari said:

“We believe strong industrial demand and deficit in the market, along with rising gold prices, will pave the way for further acceleration in ETF purchases through this year and beyond.”

Baily of HANeft also agreed, saying:

“Demand for physically-backed silver ETFs may be constructive to silver prices. Demand for silver ETFs increases demand for silver. But it should also be kept in mind that silver is also an industrial metal.”

AI Boom to Support Industrial Demand for Silver

Daria Efanova, head of research at the London-based brokerage Sucden Financial, said in Q3 Metal Outlook that silver will get a boost from the growing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), which will require essential electric conductor metals, including silver, in various electronics in the longer term.

Efanova highlighted the trend with Nvidia’s (NVDA) recent rise as the world’s most valuable company in June, taking over Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT). The tech industry’s rapid shift to AI has lifted demand for Nvidia’s products, boosting its market capitalization to $3.24 million in mid-June, according to Companies Market Cap.

Daria Efanova of Sucden Financial said silver would benefit from the growing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), which requires essential electrical conductor metals, including silver, in various electronics.

Efanova said in a webinar on July 17:

“In particular, the AI story is creating more demand for the electronics sector to host the amount of data, data from the standpoint of the power storage. And so, we see silver as one of the most conductive materials for that to grow quite strongly going forward. But again, that’s a very long-term story that we might see play out and the next couple of years, that’s less relevant.”

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted in January that electricity consumption from data centers, AI, and the cryptocurrency sector could reach more than 1,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2026, more than double from 460 TWh in 2022. The demand will be roughly equivalent to Japan’s electricity consumption.

Silver Price Forecast 2024: Is Silver a Good Investment?

For 2024, most silver price predictions are still bullish, although the price is unlikely to surpass its all-time high.

Wahyu Laksono, the founder of the Jakarta-based trader community Traderindo, has maintained his silver price prediction for 2024 to $30-$40/oz through 2025.

He told Techopedia on September 21:

“The start of the Fed’s rate cut cycle in 2024 will be bullish for precious metals and boost silver price significantly.”

ANZ Research’s silver price forecast on September 16 saw the metal trade at $33.8$31/oz by the end of 2024, up from $31.8/oz at the end of Q3. This brought its average price to $28.9/oz, up from its previous estimate of $27.2/oz for the year made in April, based on anticipated widening supply deficit, stronger investment flow, and industrial demand.

Economic data provider Trading Economics predicted silver to trade at $29.559/oz in Q3, rising to $30.280 in the final quarter of 2024, as of September 22.

In its silver price predictions in April, the World Bank saw silver to reach $25/oz in 2024, up from $23.4/oz in 2023, driven by both industrial and investing demand.

The World Bank said:

“Industrial demand, which accounts for almost half of global silver consumption, continues to be supported by expanding vehicle electrification and renewable energy infrastructure, and will likely be further boosted by a recovery in jewelry and silverware demand. Investor interest in silver is set to be bolstered by advanced-economy interest rate cuts later this year.”

Investing Haven expected silver to trade around $34.70 per oz in 2024, compared to a June forecast of $28/oz.

J.P. Morgan expected silver to trade around $30/oz in the fourth quarter of 2024, following gold’s uptrend supported by The Fed’s cutting cycle and falling US real yields.

In its latest silver price forecast 2024 on September 5, ING expected the price of the white metal to trade at $27.50, unchanged from its previous outlook in June.

Summary: Silver Price Predictions for 2024

Silver Price Forecast 2025

The silver price forecasts for 2025 suggested that the precious metal will continue its upward trajectory, with sources revising their predictions upwards from previous estimates.

Khandoshko of Mind Money, in her silver price projections on September 20, expected the silver price to reach $40-$50 by mid-2025.

Daria Efanova, Head of Research at London-based Sucden Financial, said without giving a price forecast:

“For 2025, we also see little room on the downside. A continued reduction of interest rates is likely to prop up the upward momentum for silver. Any economic growth deceleration is also expected to lift price performance, with the metal’s safe-haven attributes coming into play.”

She added that while global industrial expansion, particularly in China, and increasing demand for jewelry from key consumer regions could further boost silver’s upward trajectory, macroeconomic factors will remain crucial in determining the metal’s movement.

On September 16, ANZ Research revised upward its silver price forecast for 2025 to $35.4 from its June estimate of $33.2 for the year.

ING has also lifted the silver price prediction for 2025 to $29.5 as of September 5, from its previous forecast of $28.50/oz for the year.

The World Bank’s silver predictions saw the metal rise to $26/oz in 2025 from $25 in 2024.

Wahyu Laksono, the founder of the Jakarta-based trader community Traderindo, has kept his silver outlook for 2025 unchanged at a range of $30-$40/oz from his previous projection in June.

“Silver’s performance is closely linked to the health of the global economy due to its broad industrial applications. It is less susceptible to geopolitical and safe haven impacts compared to gold, which partly explains why gold’s performance has declined in the past few years. Silver has the potential to outperform gold.”

Summary: Silver Price Predictions for 2025

Long-Term Silver Price Forecast 2030

What about in the longer term? Will silver go up?

Most analysts did not provide a silver price forecast for 2030 due to various factors that might affect its price, making long-term projections inaccurate. While the available longer-term projections are diverse, the general views for the silver future are bullish.

Dutch lender ING expected the silver price to ease to $28.5/oz in 2026, but it did not offer the silver price predictions beyond that year.

Meanwhile, Laksono predicted silver could trade between $40 and $50 in the long term. However, he warned that the state of the global economy could present a downside risk for silver.

He told Techopedia:

“If an economic crisis happens, silver could drop again because industrial demand will weaken.”

Kandoshko of Mind Money also voiced Laksono’s cautious silver price predictions for the next 5 years. For the years 2026-2030, she mentioned that if the global economy begins to recover in the coming years—particularly in sectors where silver is heavily utilized, like electronics and solar energy—this will likely boost silver prices.

She added without giving an exact forecast:

“However, if the world is faced with a prolonged economic downturn or a continuation of the crisis, as in recent years, the demand for silver may decrease. As a consequence, the silver price will decline. At the same time, gold, as a traditional capital preservation tool, may remain more stable. Against this background, it is difficult to predict the exact silver prices in the long term, as much will depend on how the global economy develops and what factors will dominate world politics.”

Meanwhile, Coin Price Forecast offers a positive longer-term silver price forecast.

As of September 2024, the price forecasting website projected the silver price to reach $48.93 in 2026,  surpassing silver’s record high of nearly $50 in April 2011. The silver predictions for 2026 were also up from its previous silver forecast of $39.55/oz made in June. Silver will continue to rise, reaching $60.92 in 2027 and $65.84 by the end of 2028. The metal will surge to $71.25 in 2029 and $81.56/oz in 2030.

It projected silver to hit $100/oz by 2033. The website did not provide a reason for the jump in the price of silver.

Summary: Silver Price Predictions for 2030

The Bottom Line: Is Silver a Good Investment?

Analysts mentioned in this article predicted the silver price could remain elevated – potentially outperforming gold – in the long term underpinned by industrial demand, particularly from automotive and transition energy race, which boosts demand for solar panels and electric vehicles.

The Fed’s rate-cutting cycle could provide a further boost to silver.

FAQs