Silver Price Forecast: Will the Metal Test New Highs in 2024?

Since reaching an all-time high of $49.51 per troy ounce (oz) in April 2011, silver has continued to fall, struggling to recoup even half of its gains. The highest price of white metal in recent years was during the COVID-19 pandemic, when it hit over $28/oz in May 2021.

On the contrary, gold – silver’s more popular rival – has repeatedly broken its own record price in 2023.

However, the recent global economic uncertainties following the pandemic and geopolitical concerns with wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have restored the metal’s sparkle as one of the safe haven assets. Following gold, the price of silver rose in 2023, reaching as high as $26/oz, defying central banks’ aggressive interest rate hikes.

price of silver chart

Silver, often termed “poor man’s gold” due to its affordability, offers an alternative investment to traditional assets and serves as a hedge against inflation with its historical value preservation. Its extensive use in industrial applications, including electronics and renewable energy, also positions it to benefit from increasing industrial demand.

In this article, we explore the silver price forecast for 2024 and beyond, taking into account its latest development and factors affecting its price.

Key Takeaways

  • The Fed’s rate-cutting cycle, now expected in H2 2024, may provide a boost to the price of silver.
  • The slowing construction sector could be a headwind for the silver price in 2024.
  • The silver price forecast is expected to remain elevated above $23/oz in 2024.
  • Silver price could trade high at $30-$34/oz later this year if the Fed goes ahead with a rate-cutting move.

Silver Price Forecast Summary

Year Forecast Range Key Factors
2024 $17 – $36/oz
  • Fed’s rate cuts
  • Industrial demand
    Limited supply
2025 $20 – $35/oz
  • Fed’s rate cuts continue
  • Lower supply
  • Subdued demand
2026-2030 General sentiment: Upbeat trend
  • Inflation

Silver Price Performance in 2023

In line with gold, the silver price had strengthened throughout 2023, on concerns about looming recession and expectation that the US Federal Reserve would ease its monetary tightening.

At the start of 2023, silver price continued its rally from the last quarter of 2022, opening strong at over $24/oz, trading between $23 to $25/oz before peaking at more than $26/oz in May 2023, the highest since April 2022.

The course of the Fed’s monetary policy, just as in gold, was the most influential factor in the silver price movement. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy, which began in March 2022, strengthened the US dollar against other currencies and raised bond yields, putting pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.

In September 2023, the Fed decided to pause interest rate hike, keeping the benchmark Federal Fund Rate target range at 5.25% to 5.50%, and has kept it unchanged since then as the inflation rate cooled.

In July 2023, the US inflation rate rose 3.2%, slowing from 4.9% in April 2023 and down from the highest in four decades at over 9% reached in 2022.

It raised hopes that the US central bank would eventually begin its rate cuts.

For overall 2023, the silver price was relatively unchanged compared to a 2.9% gain in 2022.

Silver Price Analysis: Factors Affecting the Metal in 2024

Entering 2024, the silver price struggled to maintain its gains due to anticipated slowing industrial demand. Additionally, stronger-than-expected US inflation in January cast doubt on the prospect of an early interest rate cut by the Fed.

At the time of writing on February 27, the silver price dropped around 3.9% year-to-date (YTD) at $22.8/oz.

Silver Year-to-Date Performance Chart
Silver Year-to-Date Performance Chart. Source: Trading Economics

Before we jump to the silver price predictions, let’s quickly recap factors that may influence the price of the precious metal in 2024.

Macro Economy: Awaiting Fed’s Next Move

Gold and silver investors alike expect that the Fed may not be in a rush to cut its interest rate as early as March as previously anticipated, looking at upbeat US economy data and stronger-than-expected inflation in January 2024.

The US added 353,000 jobs in January 2024, up from 261,000 in December 2023, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Meanwhile, the unemployment rate was steady at 3.7%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the world’s biggest economy rose by 3.1% in January 2024, a slowdown from 3.4% in December, but it was less than expected.

Therefore, analysts now anticipate that the Fed may start to cut interest rates at the end of the first half of the year.

Daria Efanova, Head of Research at London-based Sucden Financial, said in a webinar on 31 January:

“We think the US economy in particular will be able to take the hit of higher interest rates for longer, and so we are pricing the case for a cut more into May-June period.”

ING Bank’s analysts – James Knightley, Padhraic Garvey, and Chris Turner – also penciled in May as the start of the Fed’s rate cut. They wrote in a note on January 31:

“By May, we think ongoing subdued core inflation measures will give the Fed the confidence to cut with the policy rate getting down to 4% by the end of this year versus the 4.5% consensus forecast and 3% by mid-2025.”

Industrial Demand

Apart from its use as an investment, silver is a strategic metal with a wider range of industrial and medical applications compared to gold. Only 10% of gold output goes to industrial use, while over 50% of silver production is used in industrial applications.

Because of its industrial usage, silver prices are very susceptible to worldwide economic activity. Slowing economic growth can decrease demand for new building construction and vehicle manufacturing. As a result, slow economic growth could reduce demand for silver.

The Silver Institute projected that industrial demand to grow by 4% to a new record high in 2023, led by demand in the green economy, such as investment in solar photovoltaic (PV), power grids, and 5G networks.

A return growth for consumer electronics and vehicle output also supported the robust industrial demand outlook for silver.

In 2024, the Silver Institute forecasts global silver demand to rise by one percent, benefiting from the continued strength of industrial uses and a recovery in jewelry and silverware demand.

Nonetheless, the subdued construction sector could drag down the industrial demand this year, particularly in China, where the struggling property industry – once the country’s economic engine – has been burdened by debts.

At the end of January, a Hong Kong court ordered debt-laden Chinese property giant Evergrande Group to be liquidated.

Sucden Financial’s Daria Efanova said:

“Overall, there’s a lot of monetary policy, a lot of the dollar, all these things are really impacting silver prices. But I think what we have noticed in particular is that the construction side, which represents 50% of silver demand, is actually starting to really impact silver upside and, in particular, sign to cap it a lot more than gold.”

In a separate comment by email on February 29, Efanova told Techopedia that in recent months, industrial performance factors have played a more significant role in capping price upside, resulting in gold outperforming silver, with the gold-to-silver ratio reaching 90, a level not seen since the end of 2021.

The gold-to-silver ratio shows the amount of silver needed to buy one ounce of gold. So, a gold-to-silver ratio of 90 means it takes 90 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. The higher ratio indicates silver price is cheaper than that of gold and vice-versa when the ratio is lower.

Analysts expect China may not be able to sustain its existing economic growth this year. Capital Economics forecasts China’s economy to grow around 6% year-over-year (YoY), but the growth is projected to decelerate to below 4% by the end of the year. 

Capital Economics’ Head of China Economics, Julian-Evans Pritchard, stated:

“China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property construction likely to continue to decline and exports set to do the same, the recovery will lack momentum.”

Dutch lender ING adjusted its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2024 to 4.8% from the previous estimate of 5%.

ING’s Chief Economist, Greater China, Lynn Song, said in a note on February 7

“In our base case scenario, we expect a moderate level of policy support, but given a less favourable base effect, pervasively downbeat sentiment, and property market weakness remaining an overhang, reaching 5% growth this year may be more difficult.” 

China, the world’s second-largest economy, has been the primary driver of demand for most basic and precious metals. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China accounts for more than 60% of global electric vehicle sales.

The country also accounted for over 95% of global solar PV manufacturing capacity at 450 gigawatts (GW) in 2022, data from IEA showed. The agency predicted global solar PV manufacturing capacity to double in 2023 and 2024, with China again taking up 90% of the increase.

Wahyu Laksono, the founder of the Jakarta-based trader community Traderindo, has a more optimistic stance about the global economy than the others. His reason is Beijing’s recent move to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) – the amount of liquidity that banks must have – by 50 basis points starting February 5. The move will provide 1 trillion yuan ($138 billion) in long-term liquidity.

“This will significantly increase liquidity in the market,” Laksono told Techopedia.

Overall, in 2024, the global economy growth is expected to be largely unchanged from last year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook released in January, saw the global economy grow steadily at 3.1% this year from 2023 before rising to 3.2% in 2025.

Limited Supply

Silver, like gold, has a limited supply, which provides solid fundamentals because supply often lags demand. Pure silver mines are rare as the metal is often found along with other minerals, such as copper, zinc, and aluminum.

In 2023, the Silver Institute estimated that global silver supply to rise by 2% to 1.02 billion ounces after barely any growth in 2022. While supply recovered in 2023, it lagged demand which reached 1.16 billion ounces, a 6% decline from 2022.

In fact, the Silver Institute’s data showed that the market has been undersupplied since 2021.

In 2024, the Silver Institute forecasts the global silver supply to grow by 3% to reach an eight-year high of 1.2 billion ounces, mainly due to a recovery in mine output. Mine production is projected to reach the highest level since 2018 at 843moz.

Nonetheless, the industrial group warned that silver output faces risks from the suspension of zinc mines due to weak prices.

Geopolitical Risks

Efanova of Sucden Financial added that geopolitical tensions could remain high in Ukraine and the Middle East in 2024.  She told Techopedia:

“Additionally, the US presidential election could also impact silver prices, with a potential second term for President Trump leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets, including silver.” 

The US will hold the presidential election on November 5, where incumbent President Joe Biden will run for re-election and could face former President Donald Trump, who is seeking a second term. 

Silver Price Forecast 2024: Is Silver a Good Investment?

For 2024, most silver price predictions are still bullish, although the price is unlikely to surpass its all-time high.

Wahyu Laksono expected silver price could trade between $17 to $30/oz in 2024.

He told Techopedia:

“The start of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle in 2024 can trigger a bullish trend in precious metals and significantly boost silver price. If it [silver] can break above $26, it will go towards the next significant resistance level of $30.”

ANZ Research’s silver price forecast saw the metal to trade at $24.7/oz in 2024, up from an average of $23.2/oz in 2023. 

ANZ Research’s Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari wrote in a note on 16 February:

“Silver will largely follow gold, while strong industrial and investment demand will push prices above USD25/oz in H2 2024.”

Economic data provider Trading Economics predicted silver to trade at $22.97/oz by the end of Q1 and rise to $24.39 in 12 months’ time, as of February 27.

“Despite current fluctuations, silver prices are projected to increase this year due to a weakening dollar and lower Treasury yields resulting from the Fed’s expected shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy,” according to Trading Economics.

Investing Haven expected silver to trade around $28/oz in 2024. Once silver breaks the $28 level, the metal could test the $32 to $36 level, which the price forecasting website expected to happen in H1 2024. For overall 2024, it projected silver to average $34.7/oz.

J.P. Morgan expected silver to trade around $30/oz in the fourth quarter of 2024, following gold’s uptrend supported by The Fed’s cutting cycle and falling US real yields.

In its silver price forecast 2024, ING expected the price of the white metal to trade at $23.50, largely unchanged from the estimated $23.25 in 2023 as of February 14.

Summary: Silver Price Predictions for 2024

Source Q1 2024/H1 2024 ($/oz) End of 2024 ($/oz)
ANZ Research $23.2-24.1 $24.7
Trading Economics $22.97 $24.39
Investing Haven $28-36 $34.7
J.P. Morgan $30
ING $23.50
Wahyu Laksono $17-$30

Silver Price Forecast 2025

There are few analysts and pricing platforms who provide silver price forecasts for 2025 because forecasting for a longer term is challenging.

In its silver price forecast on February 16, ANZ Research expected the metal to rise to $25.3 in 2025 from $24.7 in 2024.

Meanwhile, ING saw the silver price in 2025 remain unchanged at $23.50/oz from 2024.

Traderindo’s Laksono expected silver to trade higher at between $20-$35/oz in 2025 as the Fed’s rate-cutting continues. He said:

“Demand may not be significantly improving, but a lower output will balance it.”

Summary: Silver Price Predictions for 2025

Analyst/Source End of 2025 ($/oz)
ANZ Research $25.30
ING $23.50
Wahyu Laksono $20-$35

Long-Term Silver Price Forecast 2030

Most analysts did not provide a silver price forecast for 2030 due to various factors that might affect its price, making long-term projections inaccurate.

Though Laksono predicted silver could trade between $30 to $40 in the long-term. He told Techopedia:

“Precious metals are expected to remain bullish due to rising inflation. Inflation is a natural occurrence; as long as fiat money is being printed, its value will be eroded by inflation. Gold serves as a hedge against inflation, so does silver.”

Coinpriceforecast, also offered a long-term silver price forecast.

The price forecasting website projected silver price to reach $64.44/oz in 2030, surpassing its 2011 record high. The website did not provide a reason for the jump in the price of silver.

The Bottom Line: Is Silver a Good Investment?

Most analysts mentioned in this article predicted that the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle in the final six months of this year would sustain silver prices over $23, while the possibility of a new record high remained remote.

A potential slowdown in industrial demand from the construction sector could cap silver price gain.

Remember that forecasters and analysts can and do get their predictions wrong. You should always do your own research to determine whether silver is a good investment that fits your financial goals.

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Fitri Wulandari
Financial Journalist
Fitri Wulandari
Financial Journalist

Fitri has over 20 years of experience in financial journalism. She has contributed to various international media outlets, including Dow Jones Newswires, Bloomberg, and Reuters, before joining Techopedia. She spent the first 15 years of her career covering commodity and energy news, later transitioning to general financial writing. These days, she conducts interviews with industry players and analysts and reports on international conferences. Fitri holds a degree in International Relations, supporting her expertise in financial journalism. She occasionally serves as a guest trainer for journalistic training and as a moderator for panel discussions.