Tesla Stock Forecast: Is TSLA a Good Buy in 2024?

Tesla (TSLA) stock price gained more than 10% on news that it’s accelerating the roll-out of more affordable cars.

However, the TSLA stock price is still down 32% year-to-date, as of April 29, 2024 due to the recent decline in delivered vehicles.

Tesla (TSLA) Stock YTD Performance

Elon Musk’s carmaker previously blamed shipping diversions, an arson attack, and other challenges for only handing over 386,810 models in the first quarter of 2024.

In our Tesla stock forecast, we look at the company’s recent results, chart the recent price movements, and reveal what analysts are expecting.

Key Takeaways

  • TSLA shares gained around 10% on news that more affordable models are on their way
  • The electric carmaker only delivered 386,810 models in the first quarter of 2024, an 8.5% decline from the year ago.
  • Elon Musk makes a surprise visit to China in late April.
  • TSLA stock price is down 32% this year as of April 29, 2024.
  • Analysts brand the figures “an unmitigated disaster.”
  • Analysts express long-term optimism over prospects for the electric vehicle sector and concerns about the potentially negative impact of Elon Musk.

Summary of the Latest TSLA Stock Predictions

Tesla Stock Forecast
(as of April 29, 2024)
1-Year Forecast 2025 (December) 5-Year Forecast to April 2029
MarketBeat $186.7
WalletInvestor $109.91 $90.00 $0.00
TipRanks $177.30

Tesla Stock Analysis

Investors in Tesla have certainly been on a wild ride in recent years. While TSLA stock is down almost 10% over the past year, this figure only tells part of the story.

In late April 2023, the price stood at $153.75, but upbeat results pushed the price up 52% to $293.34 by the summer.

It then sunk to $142 before edging to $168 as the market closed on April 26, 2024.

This dizzying mix of impressive highs and gloomy lows has been tough on investors who have seen the value of their holdings fluctuate.

The TSLA stock price actually gained 120% in 2023, from $113.06 to $248.48 as the year ended, but 2024 has been all downhill, with the stock price having fallen 32% year-to-date.

However, all of these prices are way below the company’s all-time high of $409.97, which was achieved on November 4, 2021.

Tesla (TSLA) Stock 1-Year Performance

Latest Tesla News: Key Drivers to Consider

A key part of any Tesla stock forecast is analyzing the latest TSLA news concerning the Texas-based company to identify the key performance drivers.

Here we outline the stories that must be factored into Tesla stock predictions to help you decide whether it’s worthy of investment.

First Quarter Results

In late April 2024, Tesla announced total revenue had declined 9% year-over-year in the first quarter to $21.3 billion.

It attributed this to a combination of reduced vehicle average selling prices, a decline in vehicle deliveries, and negative foreign exchange impact.

In a statement, the company said: “We experienced numerous challenges in quarter one, from the Red Sea conflict and the arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin, to the gradual ramp of the updated Model 3 in Fremont.”

It pointed out that global EV sales continued to be under pressure due to many carmakers prioritizing hybrids over EVs.

“While many are pulling back on their investments, we are investing in future growth – including our AI infrastructure, production capacity, our Supercharger and service networks and new products infrastructure – with $2.8bn of capital expenditures in quarter one,” it added.

More Affordable Car

The most significant news from the company related to forthcoming vehicles and was highlighted in an earnings call with analysts.

It stated: “We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025.”

The company also outlined how the new arrivals would fit into the current schedules.

“These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up,” it stated.

Reaction to Results

Seth Goldstein, a strategist at Morningstar, identified four key takeaways from Tesla’s first quarter results announcement.

  • Affordable vehicles on track for 2025
  • Stronger adoption of full self-driving subscription software (FSD)
  • Energy storage volume growth figures
  • Possibility of Tesla passing on cost savings by further price cuts

“Tesla’s affordable cars are a catalyst for shares,” he wrote. “Affordable vehicles should eventually generate a majority of its total deliveries.”

He’s also upbeat about FSD prospects. “We estimate over 105 of the eligible fleet has adopted subscription software, which is above our prior forecast,” he added.

Goldstein also noted how energy storage volumes increased at 4%-a-year in the first quarter and suggested Tesla could cut prices further to pass on cost savings to customers.

Decline in First Quarter Deliveries

Tesla disappointed analysts by revealing that only 386,310 vehicles were delivered during the first quarter of 2024, despite 433,371 having been produced.

In a statement, it highlighted a number of reasons for the fall while noting that financial results for the period would be issued after the market closes on April 23, 2024. It stated:

“Decline in volumes was partially due to the early phase of the production ramp of the updated Model 3 at our Fremont factory and factory shutdowns resulting from shipping diversions caused by the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin.”

Tesla’s first quarter 2024 figures
Tesla’s first quarter 2024 figures. Source: Tesla

Analyst Reaction to the Delivery Numbers

Dan Ives, managing director of Wedbush, branded the numbers “an unmitigated disaster” and said it was Musk’s role to navigate investors through this period.

While the reasons attributed by management obviously had an impact, Morningstar’s Seth Goldstein believes another factor played a part.

The latest delivery figures are roughly 8.5% below the corresponding quarter of 2023, according to Seth Goldstein, a strategist at Morningstar. He wrote in an update at the time:

“The larger deliveries decline points to a slowdown in demand for Tesla’s vehicles, as the company’s competitors, particularly in China, may have cut prices more than Tesla to win customers.”

While Goldstein was surprised by the decline, he had anticipated a more challenging period could be on its way.

“We had assumed Tesla would see a period of slower growth in 2024 and 2025 as the market for its luxury vehicles approaches saturation.”

Elon Musk’s Visit to China

Musk made a surprise weekend trip to Beijing in late April to meet with a number of Chinese government officials, including Premier Li Qiang.

He commented on X, formerly Twitter:

According to reports, Musk’s visit was inspired by a desire to secure regulatory approval for more autonomous driving capabilities in the country.

His visit followed the cancellation of a planned trip to India, where Musk was expected to explore starting production in the country.

Outlook for Electric Vehicles

It’s fair to say that 2023 was a mixed year for the electric vehicle sector, according to a report from S&P Global Mobility.

It highlighted “waning consumer preferences for EVs,” several promising startups falling by the wayside, and a decline in battery materials costs.

“S&P Global Mobility’s forecast for 2024 is one of cautious optimism – with an increase in affordable EVs, reliable vehicle-charging ecosystems, and profitable returns,” it stated.

The study noted that despite the slowdown in consumer sentiment towards EVs, there was an “ongoing necessity” for emissions reductions.

“Crucial strategic decisions regarding capital expenditures in the electrification space need to be made in the near term,” it pointed out.

It will be dependent on delivering mass-market EVs with enhanced real-world range. “These vehicles need to be integrated into charging ecosystems that are both abundant and reliable,” it added.

Tesla Stock Forecast: Analyst Views

What is the Tesla stock forecast of analysts covering this sector? Here, we take a look at the latest Tesla stock predictions of industry observers.

The stock’s popularity among investors remains despite the challenges it’s faced, according to Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor. She said:

“Its shares have been struggling so far in 2024, weighed down by weak electric vehicle demand and higher interest rates. However, its loyal band of followers are clearly using this pullback as an opportunity to ‘buy the dip.”

According to Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, more affordable models would be a positive, if this plan comes to fruition.

She told Techopedia:

“What we do know is lower cost won’t be low cost and at a time when competition for the bottom end of the market seems to be where the growth is likely to come from, that might not be good enough to win over critics.”

Hewson also raised concerns over Musk. She said:

“The company’s high profile and often controversial founder is one of the reasons some investors have gone cold on the EV behemoth. Elon Musk is outspoken and since he’s become top dog at X he’s making the most of the mouthpiece he owns.”

That wouldn’t be such an issue if Tesla was still growing, she pointed out, but the last quarter’s deliveries were the lowest since 2022.

“That’s despite huge price cuts that the company has implemented to try and persuade inflation weary drivers that this big ticket item is worth splurging on,” she said.

Of course, Tesla is not alone. Chinese super rival BYD has also seen a slump in deliveries.

“Tesla investors will give Musk time to turn things around if they really believe his heart and his head are fully engaged, but they will need to see those details sooner rather than later,” she added.

Seth Goldstein, a strategist at Morningstar, has raised his fair value estimate on the stock from $195 to $200, according to his analysis published on April 23, 2024.

But what about his Tesla forecast for 2030?

Well, Goldstein continues to forecast around five million deliveries by 2030 and believes that Tesla is undervalued at its current level.

“Our improved outlook is due to Tesla’s recent price cuts, so we also slightly reduced our near-term automotive gross margin forecast,” he said. “We think Tesla could cut prices further as management aims to pass along the majority of cost savings to customers to drive demand.”

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, believes plans to accelerate the delivery of more affordable models is a relief – but has her concerns.

“The challenge of a waning demand for EVs remains amid fierce competition, particularly from Chinese manufacturers,” she told Techopedia.

Streeter pointed out that ongoing cost-of-living pressures were squeezing the spending power of would-be customers and suggested the looming interest rate cuts could make a difference.

“There are hopes the tougher economic conditions will ease and this could help alleviate Tesla’s sales difficulties in some regions, but there is likely to be an oversupply of EVs in the market for a considerable time to come, particularly in China.”

However, she remains broadly optimistic on the stock.

“Tesla still boasts of super-strong brand power and software is another outlet for potential extra growth,” she said. “Among the recent price cuts delivered, Tesla’s also reduced the cost of its self-driving software. If take up accelerates here, it’s a real chance to boost profits.”

In a recent interview with CNBC, Dan Ives of Wedbush believes Tesla is at a fork in the road, with the pressure on Musk to reverse the trend of declining deliveries.

However, he remains optimistic about his TSLA stock forecast and has an ‘outperform’ rating in place based on his view of the long-term opportunity of EVs and autonomous driving.

“Three to 4% of all automobiles are electric,” he said. “Full self-driving autonomous (could) be a trillion dollars’ worth of value from the software perspective.”

Tesla Stock Predictions 2024, 2025 & Beyond: Where Could the Price Go?

The stock is rated as Hold,’ according to the views of 31 Wall Street analysts compiled by MarketBeat to April 29, 2024.

While 16 analysts have ‘Hold’ recommendations in place, eight see it as a ‘Buy,’ and seven classify it as a ‘Sell.’

The consensus view is that the price could rise 10.94% to $186.70 over the next 12 months, although there is wide divergence between the views.

The highest Tesla share price forecasts are for the stock to hit $310, which would be an 84% increase over the $168.29 closing price on April 26, 2024. However, others believe it could sink 50% to just $85.

The following table shows the 10 latest analysts’ Tesla stock predictions.

Date Analyst Firm Action Rating Change Price Target Percentage Change
4/25/2024 Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft Boost Target Hold ➝ Hold $123.00 ➝ $136.00 -17.44%
4/24/2024 Citigroup Boost Target Neutral ➝ Neutral $180.00 ➝ $182.00 +12.87%
4/24/2024 HSBC Lower Target Reduce ➝ Reduce $138.00 ➝ $120.00 -25.58%
4/24/2024 UBS Group Lower Target Neutral ➝ Neutral $160.00 ➝ $147.00 -8.46%
4/24/2024 Royal Bank of Canada Lower Target Outperform ➝ Outperform $294.00 ➝ $293.00 +81.92%
4/24/2024 Roth Mkm Reiterated Rating Neutral ➝ Neutral $85.00 ➝ $85.00 -41.25%
4/24/2024 Canaccord Genuity Group Lower Target Buy ➝ Buy $234.00 ➝ $222.00 +53.44%
4/24/2024 Needham & Company LLC Reiterated Rating Hold
4/24/2024 Mizuho Lower Target Neutral ➝ Neutral $195.00 ➝ $180.00 +24.41%
4/24/2024 Oppenheimer Reiterated Rating Market Perform ➝ Market Perform

Source: MarketBeat as of April 29, 2024

It’s a gloomier outlook for the stock from the algorithmic forecasts of WalletInvestor. Its one-year Tesla stock forecast 2025 is for the stock to fall 35% to $109.91.

The site’s Tesla stock forecast 2024, meanwhile, has the price hitting $143 during the summer and slipping to around $129 by December 2024.

Looking further ahead, WalletInvestor’s 5-year Tesla stock forecast estimates the TSLA stock to have sunk to $0.00 by April 2029.

Analysts and algorithm-based prediction platforms refrain from giving longer-term price targets. Therefore, Tesla’s stock forecast for 2030 is not readily available.

Note that analysts and algorithm-based predictions might prove to be wrong.

The Bottom Line: Should I Invest in Tesla?

No one can deny that Tesla is an innovative company, driven by a rare entrepreneurial spirit in Elon Musk and investing in a sector that’s tipped to grow in popularity.

The prospect of more affordable vehicles would also be welcome and potentially make them an option for more would-be owners.

However, would-be investors need to consider whether the carmaker can increase deliveries once again, particularly in light of competition from rivals around the world.

A lot will depend on your investment time horizon. If you don’t mind encountering a degree of turbulence, then this could be a longer-term addition to your portfolio. However, don’t expect to have a smooth ride.

Do your own research and always remember your investment decision depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in the stock market, the spread of your portfolio, and how comfortable you feel about losing money.

The information in this article does not constitute investment advice and is meant for informational purposes only.

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Rob Griffin
Financial Journalist
Rob Griffin
Financial Journalist

Rob is a seasoned journalist with over three decades of experience spanning across business and finance journalism. Before embarking on a freelance career in 2002, he contributed his expertise to the business desks of notable publications such as The Guardian, Yorkshire Post, Sunday Business (now Business Post), and Sunday Express. Throughout his freelance journey, Rob has been a regular contributor to a wide range of national newspapers, consumer magazines, trade publications, and websites. His work has appeared in titles such as The Independent, Citywire, Daily Express, FT Adviser, and Sunday Telegraph, covering an array of subjects from market trends to…