When you buy through affiliate links in our content, we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. Learn Tesla (TSLA) shares have been extremely volatile this year as the electric carmaker has continued to disappoint analysts.
The Elon Musk-led company has announced quarterly figures and production numbers that have come in below market expectations.
And these concerns have affected the stock price which has been all over the place in 2024, providing a far from comfortable ride for investors.
But what is next for the Tesla stock price? Should investors brace for a very volatile ride over the rest of 2024, or are brighter days ahead?
In our Tesla stock forecast, we look at its second-quarter results, chart the recent price movements, and reveal what analysts are expecting for TSLA stock in 2025 and beyond.
Key Takeaways
- Analysts were disappointed with only 463,000 vehicles being delivered in the third quarter.
- Tesla’s profits almost halved to $1.48 billion in the second quarter.
- Its self-driving robotaxi is due to be unveiled on October 10, 2024.
- Analysts believe the TSLA stock price may fall almost 20% over the coming year.
- New launches are on track to hit production lines during the first half of 2025.
- Show Full Guide
Summary of the Latest TSLA Stock Predictions
| Tesla Stock Forecast (as of October 2, 2024) |
1-Year Forecast | 2027 (October) | 5-Year Forecast to September 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|
| MarketBeat | $209.90 | – | – |
| WalletInvestor | $227.67 | $156.75 | $102.14 |
| TipRanks | $210.91 | – | – |
Tesla Stock Analysis
Tesla has certainly taken investors on a wild ride in recent years. While TSLA stock is trading modestly above levels of a year ago, this doesn’t tell the full story.
The price actually fell 44% from $251.60 in October 2023 to $142.05 in April 2024 after the company announced disappointing first-quarter results.
It then rallied to $263.26 by July 2024 after it revealed better-than-expected delivery numbers for the second quarter of the year.
However, disappointing second-quarter financial figures sent it back down, and it’s been volatile since. As the stock market closed on October 1, 2024, Tesla’s stock price stood at $258.02.
In fact, the dizzying mix of impressive highs and gloomy lows has been tough on investors who have seen the value of their holdings fluctuate over recent years.
The TSLA stock price gained 120% in 2023, from $113.06 to $248.48. However, the past 52 weeks has seen it as high as $271 and as low as $138.80.
These levels are way below the company’s all-time high of $409.97, achieved on November 4, 2021, although the stock has actually risen 1,506.80% over the past five years.
Latest Tesla News: Key Drivers to Consider
A key part of any Tesla stock forecast is analyzing the latest TSLA news concerning the Texas-based company to identify the key performance drivers.
Here we outline the stories that must be factored into Tesla stock predictions to help you decide whether it’s worthy of investment.
Third Quarter Production
In early October 2024, Tesla announced that it had produced approximately 470,000 vehicles and delivered around 463,000 during the third quarter of the year.
However, this disappointed analysts who had expected the company to deliver 469,828 vehicles, according to reports.
It meant shares were down 6% in early trading and the price is likely to remain in volatile territory until the next quarter’s full figures are released in late October.
The production figures also mean Tesla will need to deliver over half a million vehicles in the fourth quarter to meet last year’s delivery figures.
European Levy Plans
The European Commission is reportedly planning to hit Tesla cars imported into the EU from China with tariffs of 19%.
It’s understood that the company’s cars that are manufactured in China could be subject to an additional 9% charge on top of the existing 10% duty that applies to all foreign-made vehicles.
Second Quarter Results
The company’s most recent results (for the second quarter) were released in July, and Tesla stock once again disappointed investors with figures that failed to meet expectations.
The company announced net income attributable to common shareholders of $1.48 billion for the period. This was 45% lower than the $2.7 billion achieved in the second quarter of 2023.
It explained that operating income had decreased due to a combination of price reductions, less demand, restructuring charges, and higher AI-related project costs.
In a statement, the company noted that it was “currently between two major growth waves.”
“The first one began with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform and we believe the next one will be initiated by advances in autonomy and introduction of new products, including those built on our next generation vehicle platform,” it stated.
Looking ahead, it also warned that vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower in 2024 than was achieved in 2023, as teams work on the launch of the next-generation vehicle.
“In 2024, the growth rates of energy storage deployments and revenue in our Energy Generation and Storage business should outpace the Automotive business,” it added.
Delay of Robotaxi
Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive, also revealed a postponement in the planned unveiling of the company’s self-driving robotaxis.
He told analysts on an earnings call that a prototype would be shown off during an event on October 10, 2024, rather than the August 8 date that had been expected.
The confirmation followed Musk’s reply on X on July 15, which questioned whether it would be delayed.
Requested what I think is an important design change to the front, and extra time allows us to show off a few other things
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 15, 2024
New Vehicles Coming
The company’s second-quarter announcement also noted that plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remained on track for production starting in the first half of 2025.
“These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up,” it stated.
Tesla believes this approach will result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but will enable it to “prudently grow” vehicle volumes in a more capex-efficient manner. The company added:
“This should help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines.”
Reaction to Second Quarter Results
Seth Goldstein, a strategist at Morningstar, said Tesla’s second-quarter results were largely in line with his view of how the year had gone.
“Operating profits were down roughly 33% year over year due largely to lower average automotive selling prices, but up 37% sequentially versus the first quarter, driven by strong energy generation and storage profits and lower corporate expenses,” he said. “With our outlook largely unchanged, we maintain our $200 per share fair value estimate.”
Goldstein also believes that “maintaining the vehicle production timeline” was one of his main takeaways from the latest results.
“We continue to view 2026 as the year when Tesla deliveries return to double-digit growth, driven by the affordable vehicle,” he said.
Trend of Disappointment
The second quarter results follow similarly downcast first quarter figures when Tesla revealed that total revenue had declined 9% year-over-year to $21.3 billion.
Elon Musk’s carmaker previously blamed shipping diversions, an arson attack, and other challenges for only handing over 386,810 models during this period.
In a statement issued in April 2024, the company said: “We experienced numerous challenges in quarter one, from the Red Sea conflict and the arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin, to the gradual ramp of the updated Model 3 in Fremont.”
Outlook for Electric Vehicles
Momentum in the transition to electric vehicles is slowing, according to a report from S&P Global that was published in late May 2024.
The study found that battery-electric vehicle (BEV) penetration was contracting in every major region.
It stated: “We have lowered our electrification outlook during the past 12 months, reducing our 2030 global BEV market penetration outlook by 2.3 percentage points during that time.”
The report noted that most legacy automakers were affected by “diluted profitability from the sale of EVs,” and a more protracted electrification process is an opportunity for them.
“Battery players are redefining the automotive supply chain, and automotive demand will dominate the battery market by the end of the decade,” it added.
Tesla Stock Forecast: Analyst Views
What is the Tesla stock forecast for 2024 of analysts covering this sector? Here, we take a look at the latest Tesla stock predictions of industry observers.
Tesla Stock Is Slightly Overvalued
Seth Goldstein, a strategist at Morningstar, believes Tesla shares are slightly overvalued at current levels and has a fair value estimate in place of $200 per share.
He said:
“Tesla’s artificial intelligence team announced its product release roadmap, which includes plans to launch its full self-driving software in Europe and China in the first quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approval.”
In his update published in early September 2024, Goldstein noted how the market had reacted positively to the announcement.
He also pointed out it came about a month before the company’s planned robotaxi event, which is scheduled to take place on October 10, 2024.
“During the event, we expect Tesla will reveal its robotaxi progress, including a potential prototype vehicle,” he added. “We also hope management will detail its roadmap to get from the current FSD software to a robotaxi product.”
Morningstar’s Valuation Model for Tesla
Exciting Opportunities Ahead
In his Tesla stock outlook, Gary Robinson, Co-Manager of Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust, believes there are exciting opportunities for investors among the big tech stocks. He said:
“In transportation, the electrification and digitisation led by companies like Tesla and Rivian are changing how we move. Anything undergoing structural change is where I believe the biggest opportunities for stock pickers in the US lie.”
Erratic Performance & Slower Pace of Adoption
Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell, branded Tesla’s second-quarter financial performance as “more erratic than a learner driver” after the vehicle manufacturer missed earnings expectations for the fourth consecutive quarter.
“The company always seems to be desperate to work on the next initiative rather than making sure the existing business is running smoothly,” he said. “That raises the risk of juggling too many things at once and not focusing on the bread and butter, instead preferring to look for another new toy to play with.”
Coatsworth believes that shareholders are bearing the brunt.
“There is a lot of talk about robotaxis, humanoid robots and autonomous driving, which provides an exciting narrative for investors but doesn’t get over the fact that these are tomorrow’s potential riches, not today’s,” he said.
“The stark reality is that Tesla’s profits have plummeted and that’s not what investors should expect from a business.”
As far as Tesla’s plans are concerned, Coatsworth believes that slashing prices will help address concerns about affordability but pointed out that it is leading to lower profit margins.
“Plans are afoot to launch more affordable models and while that should make Tesla appeal to a broader group of drivers, it may still be a year or more until mass production of these vehicles gets underway,” he said.
Looking forward, he wants to see Tesla find a better way to thrive in a more difficult environment for electric vehicles now rather than later.
“It’s clear that the pace of adoption is slower than expected – people still have concerns about battery range and whether there are enough experts to fix vehicles when things go wrong,” he said. “Competition is also increasing and Tesla’s first mover advantage is fading away.”
Tesla Stock Predictions 2024, 2025 & Beyond: Where Could the Price Go?
Is Tesla stock a ‘buy’, ‘sell’, or ‘hold’? According to the views of 38 Wall Street analysts compiled by MarketBeat as of October 2, 2024, Tesla stock is rated as a ‘Hold.’
While 17 analysts have ‘Hold’ recommendations in place, 13 see it as a ‘Buy,’ and eight classify it as a ‘Sell.’
- The consensus Tesla price target is that the stock could fall 18.47% to $209.90 over the next 12 months, although there is wide divergence between the views.
- The highest Tesla share price forecasts are for the stock to hit $310, while others believe it could sink to just $24.86.
The following table shows the latest analysts’ Tesla stock predictions.
| Date | Analyst Firm | Action | Rating Change | Price Target | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/30/2024 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterated Rating | Neutral ➝ Neutral- | $245.00 ➝ $245.00 | -6.35% |
| 9/25/2024 | Royal Bank of Canada | Reiterated Rating | Outperform ➝ Outperform | $224.00 ➝ $224.00 | -11.90% |
| 9/25/2024 | Piper Sandler | Boost Target | Overweight ➝ Overweight | $300.00 ➝ $310.00 | +21.92% |
| 9/13/2024 | Canaccord Genuity Group | Reiterated Rating | Buy ➝ Buy | $254.00 ➝ $254.00 | +10.76% |
| 9/13/2024 | Guggenheim | Boost Target | Sell ➝ Sell | $134.00 ➝ $153.00 | -33.24% |
| 9/10/2024 | Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft | Reiterated Rating | Buy | $295.00 | +36.40% |
| 9/5/2024 | Morgan Stanley | Reiterated Rating | Overweight ➝ Overweight | $310.00 ➝ $310.00 | +34.84% |
| 9/5/2024 | Wolfe Research | Initiated Coverage | Peer Perform | ||
| 8/29/2024 | William Blair | Initiated Coverage | Outperform | ||
| 8/20/2024 | Robert W. Baird | Reiterated Rating | Outperform ➝ Outperform | $280.00 ➝ $280.00 | +24.44% |
Source: MarketBeat as of October 2, 2024
Meanwhile, according to WalletInvestor‘s one-year Tesla stock forecast for 2025, TSLA stock price could fall 12% to $227.67.
The site’s Tesla stock forecast 2027, meanwhile, has the price slipping to $127 during the summer and then down to $113.61 by December 2027.
What about long-term Tesla stock forecast?
Looking further ahead, WalletInvestor’s 5-year Tesla stock forecast estimates the TSLA stock to sink to $102.14 by October 2029.
Analysts and algorithm-based prediction platforms refrain from giving longer-term price targets. Therefore, Tesla’s stock forecast for 2030 is not readily available.
Note that analysts and algorithm-based predictions might prove to be wrong.
The Bottom Line: Should I Invest in Tesla?
It’s been a pretty challenging year for Tesla investors, who have had their patience tested by the company’s disappointing earnings results.
However, an investment in TSLA stock has always been one for the future as this is a company that is very much driving the market for electric vehicles.
Of course, a lot rides on its ability to deliver on its promises and put analysts’ minds at rest, particularly those who believe the company is spreading resources too thinly.
If it is able to successfully unveil its self-driving robotaxi later this year, then this may open up a whole new and exciting chapter in the Tesla story.
Do your own research and always remember your investment decision depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in the stock market, the spread of your portfolio, and how comfortable you feel about losing money.
The information in this article does not constitute investment advice and is meant for informational purposes only.
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References
- Tesla Vehicle Production & Deliveries and Date for Financial Results & Webcast for Second Quarter 2024 (IR Tesla)
- Tesla – 14 Year Stock Price History | TSLA | MacroTrends (Macrotrends)
- Tesla Third Quarter 2024 Production, Deliveries & Deployments (IR Tesla)
- Tesla misses estimates for third-quarter deliveries on stiff competition | Reuters (Reuters)
- EU to hit Teslas imported from China with 19% tariffs (FT)
- 2024 Q2 Quarterly Update Deck (Digitalassets Tesla)
- Elon Musk on X (X)
- 2024 Q1 Quarterly Update Deck (Digitalassets Tesla)
- China ahead in delivering affordable electric mobility | S&P Global (SP Global)
- Tesla (TSLA) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2024 (Marketbeat)
- Tesla Stock Forecast: down to 227.673 USD? – TSLA Stock Price Prediction, Long-Term & Short-Term Share Revenue Prognosis with Smart Technical Analysis (Walletinvestor)
