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Bitcoin’s highly anticipated halving event has finally arrived, sparking curiosity about its potential impact on the cryptocurrency market. The halving, which occurs approximately every four years, is a programmed reduction in the rate at which new Bitcoins are created and awarded to miners.
The event is an integral part of Bitcoin’s design to ensure a controlled and finite supply of the digital currency. Furthermore, it is a moment that could reshape the cryptocurrency market.
The fourth Bitcoin halving took place at 00:09 UTC on Saturday, April 20, 2024, and the wider BTC community celebrated and commented on the moment.
Bitcoin Halving: Community Reacts
Bitcoin operates on a decentralized blockchain system, where transactions are verified by miners who solve complex mathematical problems. As a reward for their efforts, miners receive Bitcoins, a process that ensures the continued operation and security of the blockchain.
However, Bitcoin’s programming includes a rule designed to halve this reward approximately every four years, thus reducing the rate at which new BTC coins are created. This halving event is significant because it directly impacts the supply of new bitcoins, potentially increasing their value if demand remains constant or grows.
Crypto veteran Saifedean Ammous wrote on X:
“For the first time in history, humans have a form of money whose supply increases by less than 1% per year.
“This is a big deal because the hardness of our money is a control knob for our time preference: the degree to which we discount the future.
“The harder the money, the less its supply increases, the better it holds value into the future, the more it allows you to plan and provide for the future, the more you are able to curb your base immediate impulses in favor of rational future orientation.”
Happy bitcoin halving day!!
For the first time in history, humans have a form of money whose supply increases by less than 1% per year.
This is a big deal because the hardness of our money is a control knob for our time preference: the degree to which we discount the future.…
— Saifedean Ammous (@saifedean) April 20, 2024
Likewise, Sergey Nazarov, a co-founder of Chainlink and CEO of Chainlink Labs, noted that one of the key ideas behind Bitcoin has been that it is a deflationary asset. “This more deflationary dynamic, I think, will be increasingly attractive in the world that we are now,” he said in a video on X.
Nazarov added that after every halving, the Bitcoin community has grown, the value of Bitcoin has increased, and it has been viewed as a more reliable asset.
“It’s possible that this halving, because of everyone’s focus on inflation and possible interest in a more deflationary asset, will lead it to be even more attractive.”
The fourth #Bitcoin halving is here. pic.twitter.com/KDblftMN83
— Chainlink (@chainlink) April 20, 2024
Will Halving Impact Bitcoin Price?
Historically, halvings have been catalysts for bullish behavior in Bitcoin’s market. For instance, the 2020 halving saw Bitcoin’s price escalate from around $8,600 to nearly $56,705 the following year. Similar trends were observed in previous halvings, with price increases that delighted investors but also underscored the asset’s volatility.
“I think it will have a somewhat positive effect on price,” Aki Balogh, co-founder and CEO of DLC.link, told Techopedia.
He added that there is greater awareness of BTC in this cycle than in previous ones, noting that the supply shock that will come from reduced mining revenues is real and will have some effect.
“Some of that has already been priced in, but there are unknown second and third-derivative effects that will only come out after the halving has happened. So, I think scarcity will push price up somewhat.”
In a post on X, popular trader Willy Woo challenged the concept of “priced in” when it comes to Bitcoin halving. He argued that the growth of Bitcoin’s adoption can be reliably extrapolated as it follows a steady curve.
Woo predicted that by 2025, one billion people will own Bitcoin. Contrary to the notion that this anticipated adoption is already reflected in the price, Woo said that speculators lack the necessary capital to fully price it in.
According to him, the arrival of substantial capital is still required for Bitcoin to realize its full potential.
“Priced in” is a stooopid concept. We can extrapolate the growth of #Bitcoin’s adoption reliably. It’s a very steady curve. 1b people will own it in 2025.
Is it priced in? NO! It needs that capital to land, speculators do not have the capital to price it in.
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) April 20, 2024
Likewise, in a recent video, American venture capital investor Tim Draper shared insights into the price movements of Bitcoin following halvings. He pointed out the consistent pattern that has emerged over the last six halvings, where the price of Bitcoin has historically increased after each event.
“So that’s why … you’ve seen the price go up after a halving. So be aware that it’s probably going to happen again.”
Fun interview with @LloydWahed mostly about #Bitcoin #BitcoinHalving2024 and #crypto #trust #freedom https://t.co/6XnyMDo08m
— Tim Draper (@TimDraper) April 19, 2024
Bitcoin bull and former MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor also mentioned the leading cryptocurrency was $8,618 on the day of the last halving. In response, one X user noted that with the previous cycle resulting in an approximate 8x increase in value, the next cycle could potentially yield half of that growth, around 4x.
If this prediction holds true, it could mean a substantial surge in Bitcoin’s price, potentially reaching around $256,000.
Bitcoin's value has increased by approximately 8x. Considering that during the next halving cycle, it could potentially rise by half the amount it did in the last cycle by say 4x, we might see a price of around $256,000.
— Alexander (@simenomics) April 19, 2024
In another post on X, Pete Rizzo, a leading Bitcoin Historian, said that the Bitcoin price has added one digit when each halving happened. In other words, the crypto veteran expects Bitcoin to trade in six digits in the near future.
✨ The #Bitcoin price when each halving happened:
2012: $10
2016: $650
2020: $8,800
2024: $6X,XXXAdding a 0 every time 👏
— The Bitcoin Historian (@pete_rizzo_) April 18, 2024
Not Everyone is Bullish
On the other hand, given that Bitcoin recently hit a historical peak, some have voiced uncertainty regarding whether the halving will have the same impact this time around.
For one, billionaire Arthur Hayes has expressed a cautious view regarding the upcoming Bitcoin halving and its effects on the asset’s price.
“I agree that it will pump prices in the medium term; however, the price action directly before and after could be negative,” he wrote in a Medium post.
Finance reporter Vini Barbosa also raised concerns about Bitcoin’s high transaction fees, criticizing the current fee levels. As of now, high-priority fees for Bitcoin transactions are exceeding $200 per transaction, with low-priority fees reaching over $143 per transaction.
Expressing his dissatisfaction, Barbosa questioned whether Bitcoin truly represents the future of money. In a somewhat sarcastic tone, he wished Bitcoin enthusiasts a happy Bitcoin halving while asking them to have fun paying the fees (HFPF).
Bitcoin high priority fees above $200/tx (2,250 sat/vB)
Low priority above $143/tx (1,613 sat/vB).“Future of money”.
Not for me, at least.Happy Bitcoin halving and have fun paying fees (HFPF)! 🥳 pic.twitter.com/9zQtxINIlg
— Vini Barbosa (@vinibarbosabr) April 20, 2024
The Bottom Line
As the dust settles on Bitcoin’s latest halving event, the cryptocurrency community remains divided on the potential long-term impacts on the market. The halving, a fundamental mechanism designed to limit the supply of Bitcoin and potentially increase its value, has historically been a catalyst for significant price movements.
Yet, skepticism persists. High transaction fees and the debate over whether the halving’s effects are already priced into the market suggest that Bitcoin still faces significant challenges.
