Here’s Why The Bitcoin Price Could Crash Below $55k As Altcoin Presales Raise Millions

Bitcoin’s meteoric ascent since the 4th financial quarter of 2023 has taken even seasoned traders by surprise. The BTC price reached an all-time high of $73,800 earlier this month – 7% higher than its previous peak of $69,000 – while the Bitcoin halving was still over an month away. 

However, crypto prices have witnessed a steep decline since, with BTC trading as low as $60,900 on Tuesday before a marginal bounce back to $62,900.

BTC Price Crash

The bulls believe that BTC’s upside move is nowhere near done, predicting the Bitcoin price to reach the $140k – $180k range in the coming months. However, analysts believe that the possibility of a major correction can no longer be ignored. 

While Bitcoin has not necessarily hit the top, the odds of a 20% – 30% pre-halving correction are rising. Notably, BTC is already down 15% from its new all-time high of $73,800. 

Bitcoin Price Prediction – What Is BTC’s Next Move?

The bulls are still extremely optimistic about Bitcoin’s mid-term and long-term prospects.

Analysts have highlighted the formation of another bullish megaphone pattern on the weekly Bitcoin price chart. A breakout above its upper trend line could catapult BTC above $180,000. Megaphone patterns have so far been the most successful patterns at predicting an upside move for Bitcoin in this cycle.

The recently approved spot Bitcoin ETFs have already recorded inflows close to $12 billion since January 11th, even with Grayscale witnessing an outflow of  ~$12.8 billion. 

BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone has recorded an inflow of over $13 billion and now has more BTC holdings than Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy. The ETFs have acted as an excellent risk proxy for Bitcoin thus far, buying back any potential dips. 

However, the tide is shifting in favor of the bears. The ETFs saw a record net outflow of $326 million on March 19th, collectively having the worst day since their approval.

Pre-halving corrections are extremely common in Bitcoin as investors start to engage in higher-degree of profit taking. In 2020, BTC saw a 20% correction in its price. In 2016, this retrace was much stronger at 38%. 

If either of these scenarios play out, the BTC price could fall back to anywhere from $45,200 to $58,000.

Crypto analysts have identified $55,000 as a potential local bottom for Bitcoin, considering it is the previous yearly Value Area High and could prove to a strong support for further upside continuation.

Why Is The Bitcoin Price Crashing?

Several factors are contributing to the ongoing crypto crash. 

Firstly, on-chain signals suggest that  BTC had entered overheated territory, as also flagged by CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator. Secondly, both the miners and traders were extremely profitable, with the latter having record profit margins of over 57%. CryptoQuant reveals that short-term BTC holders have already started selling. 

Bitcoin overheat

Most importantly, the Bitcoin price is experiencing a decline due to weakness in the broader equities market, triggered by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance. 

After a bad Consumer Price Index (CPI) data earlier this month, the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report released on Thursday last week also highlights that the inflation levels are moving in the wrong direction. 

Jesse Cohen, a global markets analyst at Investing.com, reveals that the Federal Reserve will be in no rush to cut interest rates any time soon – potentially not at all in 2024. This is a strong shift in expectation, considering that the market had previously priced in 7 rate cuts this year. The Bank of Japan has also decided to rate interest rates, which will be another hit to the global liquidity.

The global liquidity has had a strong impact on BTC over the past decade. Its potential drain could adversely impact the ongoing crypto bull market.

The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for the 20th of March. The market has already priced in another pause in the Fed’s monetary policy for tomorrow and only three rate cuts for the rest of the year. However, Fed chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments after the meeting could hint an even more hawkish stance, leading to a collapse in the broader equities market – as well as in Bitcoin.

In such a scenario, analysts believe that the market makers could try to grab the large liquidity pool below $50,000, leading to the Bitcoin price falling to $49,000.

Investors Rotate To Low Cap Crypto Presale Projects

With the Bitcoin price on the cusp of a strong decline, investors are seeking low market cap alternatives that could outperform the largest cryptocurrency in the short-term. 

While crypto mining stocks such as Riot and Hut 8 have witnessed a decline in the past month, a new cloud mining token Bitcoin Minetrix (BTCMTX) has raised over $12 million in its presale. 

Bitcoin Minetrix mines BTC on behalf of its users, later distributing the profits in proportion to their initial investments. The project aims to challenge the monopoly of wealthy corporations in the Bitcoin mining space by significantly reducing the capital investment and technical expertise required to earn mining rewards.

With the crypto mining industry set to become extremely profitable in the coming months, some analysts project Bitcoin Minetrix to potentially generate 10x returns.

Green Bitcoin (GBTC) has raised close to $7 million in its own crypto presale, a predict to earn project that allows token holders to earn rewards from predicting Bitcoin price movements.

Both projects are built on Ethereum’s proof of stake network, often seen as a more sustainable, eco friendly alternative to Bitcoin’s proof of work mechanism.