Investors in Elon Musk’s Tesla (TSLA) have been on a wild ride over the past five years, but where will this journey take them in 2025?
The electric vehicle giant’s shares have risen 1,210% since the beginning of 2020 and hit an all-time high closing price of $479.86 on December 17, 2024.
However, 2025 has started off in a bad way after the company announced it suffered its first decline in annual deliveries last year.
This has been enough to send shares down 5%. As the market closed on January 8, 2025, they were sitting at $394.94.
But what is next for the TSLA stock price? Should investors be bracing themselves for ongoing volatility, or is this just a temporary blip in Tesla’s success story?
In our Tesla’s stock forecast for 2025–2030, we look at its disappointing delivery numbers, chart the recent price movements, and reveal what analysts are expecting for TSLA stock in 2025 and beyond.
Key Takeaways
- Tesla announced its first-ever decline in deliveries during 2024, with 1.79 million vehicles handed over, compared to 1.80 million the previous year.
- The consensus view of Wall Street analysts is that the TSLA stock price could plunge 25% over the coming year.
- New vehicles, including more affordable models, are expected to start being produced in the first half of 2025.
- TSLA stock reached its all-time high closing price of $479.86 on December 17, 2024, but has since been on a decline.
- Tesla’s fourth-quarter earnings are due to be released after the market closes on January 29, 2025.
Summary of the Latest TSLA Stock Predictions
Tesla Stock Forecast (as of January 9, 2025) |
1-Year Forecast | 2027 (January) | 5-Year Forecast to January 2030 |
---|---|---|---|
MarketBeat | $295.69 | – | – |
WalletInvestor | $382.07 | $353.36 | $335.82 |
TipRanks | $320.90 | – | – |
Tesla Stock Analysis
Our Tesla stock forecast starts by taking a look at how the company and the TSLA stock price have performed in recent years.
The headline figures are impressive, with the share price having soared 1,162.97% to $394.94 over the past five years to January 8, 2025.
This has given it a market capitalization of $1.26 trillion, making it the world’s eighth-largest company and easily the biggest automaker.
However, these numbers don’t quite tell the full story as the stock has been down to less than $30 and as high as there has been significant volatility over this period.
For example, the TLSA stock price actually fell 44% from $251.60 in October 2023 to $142.05 in April 2024 after the company announced disappointing first-quarter results.
The next three months were better and by July 2024 it had rallied to $263.26 in the wake of better-than-expected delivery numbers for the second quarter.
Unfortunately, this didn’t last as disappointing second-quarter financial figures knocked investor confidence and sent the price back down.
However, better-than-expected third-quarter figures, released after the market closed on October 23, 2024, saw the stock price rise 12% in after-hours trading.
Donald Trump’s victory in November’s US presidential election further boosted the stock in hopes that he might be more receptive to the company’s needs.
The stock hit an all-time high closing price of $479.86 on December 17, 2024, but it’s since come off the boil after the company revealed its first annual decline in deliveries.
Latest Tesla News: Key Drivers to Consider
A key part of any Tesla stock forecast is analyzing the latest TSLA news about the Texas-based company to identify what may affect the share price.
Here, we outline the stories that must be factored into Tesla stock predictions to help you decide whether an investment makes sense.
Disappointing Delivery Numbers
Let’s kick off with the bad news. On January 2, 2025, Tesla published its fourth-quarter production and delivery numbers.
On the face of it, this seemed positive. The company had managed to deliver a record 495,570 vehicles during the period.
However, the problem was that annual deliveries for 2024 came in at 1.79 million, lower than the previous year’s 1.80 million. This was the first such decline in the company’s history.
Tesla Model | Q4 2024 Production | Q4 2024 Deliveries | 2024 Production | 2024 Deliveries |
---|---|---|---|---|
Model 3/Y | 436,718 | 471,930 | 1,679,338 | 1,704,093 |
Other Models | 22,727 | 23,640 | 94,105 | 85,133 |
Total | 459,445 | 495,570 | 1,773,443 | 1,789,226 |
Source: Tesla
The TLSA stock price dropped 5%, pointed out Seth Goldstein, a strategist at Morningstar, in his latest Tesla stock forecast. He wrote:
“Lower deliveries reduce Tesla’s growth and lower the total addressable market for the company’s ancillary services, including autonomous driving software, charging, and insurance.”
However, other analysts were more relaxed. Dan Ives, an MD at Wedbush Securities, wrote on X.com (formerly Twitter) that he would be on any sell-off.
TSLA announced its Q4 delivery numbers of 495.6k vehicles below the Street’s whisper numbers of ~500k. While knee jerk stock will be down we view these as respectable numbers with all of our focus on the 2025 growth story and autonomous vision. Buyers today on any sell-off 🐂🔥
— Dan Ives (@DivesTech) January 2, 2025
All Eyes On Fourth Quarter Results
Investors’ attention now turns to the fourth quarter results, which are due to be released after the market closes on January 29, 2025. The company is also planning to hold a live question and answer webcast that day to discuss the financial and business results, as well as the outlook.
Analysts will be hoping for a similarly upbeat set of results as the company announced back in late October for the third quarter.
At the time, it revealed an 8% year-over-year increase in total revenues to $25.18 billion, with adjusted net income of $2.5 billion.
In a statement, it said: “We delivered strong results in Q3 with growth in vehicle deliveries both sequentially and year-on-year, resulting in record third quarter volumes.”
In addition, earnings per share came in at $0.72, which was better than the $0.60 expected. The gross margin figure, meanwhile, was 19.8%.
Tesla Third Quarter Financial Summary
Tesla Financial Summary {$ in millions, except % and per share data) |
Q3-2023 | Q4-2023 | Q1-2024 | Q2-2024 | Q3-2024 | YoY |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total automotive revenues | 19,625 | 21,563 | 17,378 | 19,878 | 20,016 | 2% |
Energy generation and storage revenue | 1,559 | 1,438 | 1,635 | 3,014 | 2,376 | 52% |
Services and other revenue | 2,166 | 2,166 | 2,288 | 2,608 | 2,790 | 29% |
Total revenues | 23,350 | 25,167 | 21,301 | 25,500 | 25,182 | 8% |
Total gross profit | 4,178 | 4,438 | 3,696 | 4,578 | 4,997 | 20% |
Total GAAP gross margin | 17.90% | 17.60% | 17.40% | 18.00% | 19.80% | 195 bp |
Operating expenses | 2,414 | 2,374 | 2,525 | 2,973 | 2,280 | -6% |
Income from operations | 1,764 | 2,064 | 1,171 | 1,605 | 2,717 | 54% |
Operating margin | 7.60% | 8.20% | 5.50% | 6.30% | 10.80% | 323 bp |
Adjusted EBITDA | 3,758 | 3,953 | 3,384 | 3,674 | 4,665 | 24% |
Adjusted EBITDA margin | 16.10% | 15.70% | 15.90% | 14.40% | 18.50% | 243 bp |
Source: Tesla
Positive Outlook
In comments accompanying the third quarter results, Tesla declared it was currently between two major growth waves.
“The first one began with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform and we believe the next one will be initiated by advances in autonomy and introduction of new products, including those built on our next generation vehicle platform,” it stated.
It also gave an upbeat assessment of prospects. “Despite ongoing macroeconomic conditions, we expect to achieve slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 2024,” it stated. “Energy storage deployments are expected to more than double year-over-year in 2024.”
On a financial perspective, the company insisted it had “sufficient liquidity” to fund its product roadmap, long-term capacity expansion plans, and other expenses.
“Furthermore, we will manage the business such that we maintain a strong balance sheet during this uncertain period,” it added.
The company also commented on profit expectations. “While we continue to execute on innovations to reduce the cost of manufacturing and operations, over time, we expect our hardware-related profits to be accompanied by an acceleration of AI, software and fleet-based profits,” it stated.
Separately, Tesla also announced that its Cybertruck had achieved “a positive gross margin” for the first time.
More Affordable Vehicles
Tesla also reaffirmed that plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remained on track for production to start in the first half of 2025.
“These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up,” it stated.
The company acknowledged that this approach will result in less cost reduction than previously expected but pointed out it will help to prudently grow vehicle volumes in a “more capex efficient manner” during uncertain times.
“This should help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines,” it added. “Our purpose-built Robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary ‘unboxed’ manufacturing strategy.”
In addition, Tesla emphasized the importance of what it had achieved against the prevailing backdrop.
“Despite sustained macroeconomic headwinds and others pulling back on EV investments, we remain focused on expanding our vehicle and energy product lineup, reducing costs and making critical investments in AI projects and production capacity,” it stated. “We believe these efforts will allow us to capitalize on the ongoing transition in the transportation and energy sectors.”
Revealed: Cybercab Robotaxi
The positive third-quarter results helped Tesla bounce back from the underwhelming launch of its long-awaited Robotaxi.
The futuristic vehicle is part of a “fleet of autonomous vehicles and robots” that the company hopes will help it change the face of transportation.
“We do this by making driving more efficient, affordable, and safe,” it stated. “Autonomy makes this future possible, today.”
However, the long-awaited announcement was met with a fairly lukewarm reaction, according to comments at the time from Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell.
“Tesla’s Cybercab launch event failed to drive any interest from investors, with minimal change to its share price,” he said at the time. “The company has form in hyping up things and then pushing back launch dates, meaning investors might only get excited once there is solid proof the new vehicle is about to hit the road.”
Outlook for Electric Vehicles
Another important factor in any 5-year Tesla stock forecast is the global demand for electric vehicles in different parts of the world.
More than 1.7 million EVs were sold during October 2024, overtaking the previous month’s record by 50,000, according to research house Rho Motion.
The Chinese EV market has once again set another monthly record with 1.2 million units sold, growing by 6% compared to the previous month and by over 50% compared to October 2023.
Year-to-date, the Chinese EV market has grown by 38%, and the global market has grown by 24%. In a statement, Rho Motion’s data manager, Charles Lester, said: “The global EV market is now picking back up again, hitting record sales for the second month in a row.”
Lester also pointed out that most of this growth was coming from China and suggested Western manufacturers were “clearly threatened” by this development.
“The US market remains buoyant in part thanks to IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) funding for consumers switching to electric, which may be at risk with the start of the Trump presidency,” he explained.
As reported by battery raw material provider Syrah Resources, the global EV sales increased by 21% in the first nine months of 2024, down from 43.66% growth during the same period in 2023, and were heavily led by China as the US and European markets faced challenges.
US EV car sales increased by 11% year on year during the third quarter.
Tesla still leads the global EV market with a 48.2% share.
Tesla Stock Forecast: Analyst Views
What is the Tesla stock forecast for 2025 of analysts covering this sector? Here, we take a look at the latest Tesla stock predictions of industry observers.
Sales Struggles Are a Concern
Elon Musk may have the ear of the incoming President, for now, but that doesn’t mean it’s all going to be plane sailing, warned Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell.
She told Techopedia:
“Tesla, in particular, has struggled with sales over the past year as economic slowdowns and high inflation nibbled away at the discretionary income of his potential customers.”
Hewson also suggested that Tesla’s stable of models was beginning to look a little outdated in a world when other automakers are going all out to woo drivers to their electric versions.
“Tesla has a fantastic network of charging points which have won over many motorists, but those that haven’t already made the switch could still be feeling a little range anxiety, or they might not have the capacity to charge in their driveways, which makes the whole deal more expensive,” she said.
There are also concerns about the man at the top.
“Having Elon Musk in the driving seat is also seen as much a detriment to the success of the company as it is a boon,” she explained. “His constant mouthing off on his own social media platform has turned off many would-be customers, and when you are talking about making a purchase you are going to be stuck with for years, you need to be really happy signing that deal.”
Elsewhere, Hewson believes the Chinese market is also a tricky one for Tesla as there are so many home-grown models available. This backdrop, she pointed out, means the company has to “work hard and discount hard” to stay in the game.
“Tesla needs to find a new gear in 2025 if it is to keep what had been an enviable position in the race to dominate the EV space,” she added. “It needs new models and to finally come up with that affordable car that would open up a whole new customer pool.”
Relationship With President-elect Donald Trump
The return of Donald Trump to the White House has already had an impact, according to Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown.
She said: “Tesla’s stock has soared since Donald Trump won the Presidential election, amid hopes Elon Musk’s right-hand man position will prompt policies favoring the EV maker. It’s likely that he will have a sharp appetite in his new position for making ‘efficiencies’ which benefit his business interests.”
Streeter pointed out that one area of focus for Musk is likely to be ensuring there’s an acceleration of regulatory approval for Tesla’s self-driving technology.
“Elon Musk is well-known for having a finger in many pies, which has caused nervousness in the past,” she added. “Now he’s also at Trump’s top table and concern may creep back in about the potential for his eye to be taken off the ball.”
As far as Tesla itself is concerned, Streeter acknowledged that underlying performance looks better than it’s been for some time, despite huge incentives put in place to push sales in a tough market, especially in China.
“Tesla still has pulling power when it comes to EV purchase decisions, and with more affordable models on track for production in the first half of 2025, it should open up the wider market,” she explained. “A dip in demand for EVs has been tricky to navigate and cost-cutting efforts are a core part of the near-term margin recovery strategy.”
Streeter also believes the company is in a good financial position.
“Tesla has balance sheet strength to head on its next chapter of growth but given its hot valuation, and the longer-term nature of its innovative technologies, patience will need to be the name of the game,” she added.
Seth Goldstein, a strategist at Morningstar, has had a fair value estimate of $210 on the stock since October 24, 2024.
Giving his Tesla stock projections, he said: “We view shares as overvalued with the stock trading more than 80% above our fair value estimate and in 1-star territory.”
Goldstein argued that the slight decline in annual deliveries highlights that the current vehicle lineup is “nearing market saturation,” which is a concern for investors.
“We view the deliveries number as negative for Tesla,” he explained. “However, we’re maintaining our $210 fair value estimate and narrow moat rating.”
Looking ahead, Goldstein acknowledged that management hopes to grow deliveries through a new lower-priced vehicle. This is expected to enter production by mid-year.
“Tesla also plans to launch its level 3 autonomous driving software in California and Texas, a key step toward the company’s goal of a Robotaxi service,” he added. “Management guided to deliveries growth of 20% to 30% in 2025, but we see growth well below this range as we expect production of the new vehicle will take longer to ramp up versus the implied current timeline.”
He also suggested this may have an impact on the company’s longer-term objectives.
“We expect the level 3 software will launch in 2025 but will likely require further improvements before Robotaxis can be feasible,” Goldstein added. “We forecast the Robotaxi launch will be delayed past management’s 2026 timeline.”
Tesla Stock Predictions 2025–2030: Where Could the Price Go?
Is Tesla stock a ‘buy’, ‘sell’, or ‘hold’? According to the views of 40 Wall Street analysts compiled by MarketBeat as of January 9, 2025, Tesla stock is rated as a ‘hold.’
While 17 analysts have ‘Buy’ recommendations in place, 14 see it as a ‘Hold,’ and nine classify it as a ‘Sell.’
- The consensus Tesla price target is that the stock could plummet to $295.69 over the next 12 months. This would be a fall of 25.13% on the $394.94 closing price on January 8, 2024.
- The highest Tesla share price forecasts are for the stock to hit $515, while others believe it could sink to just $24.86, according to MarketBeat.
The following table shows the latest analysts’ Tesla stock predictions.
Date | Analyst Firm | Action | Rating Change | Price Target | Percentage Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1/7/2025 | Bank of America | Downgrade | Buy ➝ Neutral | $400.00 ➝ $490.00 | +19.21% |
1/6/2025 | Stifel Nicolaus | Boost Target | Buy ➝ Buy | $411.00 ➝ $492.00 | +18.23% |
1/6/2025 | New Street Research | Upgrade | Neutral ➝ Buy | $460.00 | +8.99% |
1/3/2025 | Evercore ISI | Boost Target | In Line ➝ In Line | $195.00 ➝ $275.00 | -29.16% |
1/3/2025 | Glj Research | Reiterated Rating | Sell ➝ Sell | $24.86 ➝ $24.86 | -93.45% |
1/3/2025 | Canaccord Genuity Group | Boost Target | Buy ➝ Buy | $254.00 ➝ $278.00 | +5.46% |
1/2/2025 | Truist Financial | Reiterated Rating | Hold ➝ Hold | $360.00 ➝ $360.00 | -8.75% |
12/18/2024 | Robert W. Baird | Boost Target | Outperform ➝ Outperform | $280.00 ➝ $480.00 | +0.03% |
12/17/2024 | Mizuho | Upgrade | Neutral ➝ Outperform | $230.00 ➝ $515.00 | +11.23% |
12/11/2024 | The Goldman Sachs Group | Boost Target | Neutral ➝ Neutral | $250.00 ➝ $345.00 | -13.96% |
12/10/2024 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Boost Target | Neutral ➝ Neutral | $255.00 ➝ $365.00 | -6.36% |
Source: MarketBeat as of January 9, 2025
Meanwhile, according to WalletInvestor‘s one-year Tesla stock forecast 2026, TSLA stock price could slip to $382.07 by early January 2026.
What about long-term Tesla stock forecasts? Analysts and algorithm-based prediction platforms are often reluctant to give longer-term price targets.
However, Walletinvestor’s 5-year Tesla stock forecast has the price to reach $335.82 by January 2030, suggesting the outlook isn’t great for investors.
It’s important to note that analysts’ and algorithm-based expectations for Tesla stock price might prove to be wrong, so you need to carry out your own research.
The Bottom Line: Should I Invest in Tesla?
A lot will ride on Tesla’s fourth-quarter earnings, which are due to be released at the end of January. If they’re positive then this will lift the shares.
If they come in lower than expected, this will give more weight to the consensus views of analysts that the TLSA stock price is on a downward journey.
Currently, industry observers aren’t optimistic about share price movements over the coming year. The consensus view of analysts compiled by MarketBeat is that the stock could plunge 25% over the coming year, although there’s no guarantee they are correct.
More broadly, no one can deny that TSLA stock has been pretty volatile, with the price reacting sharply to even a hint of negative or positive news.
However, it’s worth acknowledging that an investment in TSLA stock has always been one for the future.
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References
- Largest Companies by Marketcap (Companies Marketcap)
- Tesla Vehicle Production & Deliveries and Date for Financial Results & Webcast for Second Quarter 2024 (Tesla)
- FORM 8-K (Tesla)
- Dan Ives on X (X)
- 2024 Q3 Quarterly Update Deck (Digitalassets Tesla)
- We, Robot | Tesla (Tesla)
- Record-Breaking Month in EV Sales (Rho Motion)
- Q3 2024 Quarterly Activities Report (Datocms-assets)
- Electric Vehicle Sales Mark Another Record in Q3, Thanks to Higher Incentives, More Choices (Cox Automotive Inc.)
- Tesla (TSLA) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2025 (Marketbeat)
- Tesla Stock Forecast: down to 382.070 USD? – TSLA Stock Price Prediction, Long-Term & Short-Term Share Revenue Prognosis with Smart Technical Analysis (WalletInvestor)