TSMC Stock Forecast 2025-2030: Is a $2 Trillion Market Cap Next?

Top chipmaker TSMC (TSM) rejoined the ‘$1 Trillion Club’ in October 2024, an exclusive coterie of companies with a market capitalization that extends to thirteen digits.

TSM stock price also reached a record high of $205.84 on October 17, 2024.

Investors are celebrating the Taiwanese chip manufacturer as an integral part of the AI revolution alongside Nvidia (NVDA).

Earnings released for the third quarter showed TSMC benefiting from rising orders from its top customers, adding fundamental support to very strong price gains year-to-date in 2024.

However, risks are always on the horizon, and TSMC could see repercussions from recent reports that The US Commerce Department is investigating whether TSMC has been making chips for sanctioned Chinese firm Huawei, which is a breach of US export rules.

In our TSMC stock forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2030, we analyze the company’s recent performance, evaluate its financial results, and reveal the TSMC stock expectations of market analysts.

Table of Contents Table of Contents

1. Key Takeaways
2. Summary of the Latest TSMC Stock Predictions
3. TSMC Stock Analysis: A Year in Review
4. What's Driving TSMC Stock?
5. TSMC Stock Forecast: Expert Opinions
6. The Bottom Line: Should I Invest in TSMC?
7. FAQs
8. References

Show Full Guide

Table of Contents

1. Key Takeaways
2. Summary of the Latest TSMC Stock Predictions
3. TSMC Stock Analysis: A Year in Review
Show Full Guide
4. What's Driving TSMC Stock?
5. TSMC Stock Forecast: Expert Opinions
6. The Bottom Line: Should I Invest in TSMC?
7. FAQs
8. References

Summary of the Latest TSMC Stock Predictions

TSMC Stock Analysis: A Year in Review

The momentum behind the hottest investing trend of artificial intelligence has helped the second-largest semiconductor stock to a market cap of over $1 trillion.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC for short) has seen its stock leap 95% year-to-date (as of October 23, 2024)—a nearly 2X move in under 12 months.

TSMC management sounds confident that its record-setting climb will continue.

“Our business in the third quarter was supported by strong smartphone and AI-related demand for our industry-leading 3nm and 5nm technologies,” said Wendell Huang, Senior VP and Chief Financial Officer of TSMC.

This is just one factor influencing the TSMC stock forecast moving forward. Let’s see what else affects TSMC’s future stock price performance.

What’s Driving TSMC Stock?

Wider tech emphasis and artificial intelligence’s ascendancy play a role, but unique factors also contribute to increased interest and investigation into TSMC news today.

TSMC Earnings

TSMC (TWSE: 2330, NYSE: TSM) announced its Q3 2024 results on October 17, 2024. The company reported revenue of NT$760 billion, with a net income of NT$325 billion.

Diluted earnings per share were NT$12.54, or US$1.94 per ADR unit.

Year-over-year, revenue grew by 39.0%, while both net income and EPS rose by 54.2%. Compared to Q2 2024, revenue increased by 12.8%, and net income jumped by 31.2%.

In US dollars, Q3 revenue reached $23.50 billion, marking a 36.0% increase from the same period last year and a 12.9% rise from the previous quarter.

Phelix Lee from Morningstar says:

“TSMC’s disciplined approach to capital spending in 2024 and possibly in the next few years reduces risks of oversupply and allows for flexibility in cutting-edge research to maintain its leadership.”

Ill-disciplined approaches to capital spending caused many wide-reaching layoffs and downsizing across tech sector stocks, including Meta (META) and Google (GOOGL). In contrast, TSMC is expanding its headcount across new overseas facilities, and it’s long considered that “firings and layoffs at TSMC are almost unheard of.”

US Commerce Department Investigation

Tech publication The Information reported that the Commerce Department is investigating whether TSMC has been producing AI or smartphone chips for Huawei, potentially violating US export regulations.

TSMC has since denied the allegations, with a spokesperson for the company stating “We are not aware of TSMC being the subject of any investigation at this time.”

Reuters reported that a TSMC has itself informed the Commerce Department that its

chip was recently discovered in a Huawei product in what could be an accidental export violation.

TSMC is a dominant supplier of chips for US corporations, including Apple (AAPL), and it’s not clear what regulatory steps would be taken against the firm given the risk of damaging the interests of national players.

TSMC’s Geopolitical Risk

The omnipresent, unavoidable, and unpredictable 800-lb gorilla in the room when it comes to the TSMC stock forecast is the region’s geopolitical concern. The risk of war between Taiwan, where TSMC headquarters, and China remains elevated despite US material support and funding to the tiny island republic.

The risk isn’t the one investors can mitigate, especially considering management’s primary plan in case of invasion is to trigger self-destruct sequences throughout its facilities.

Still, TSMC’s management is proactively planning to prevent (or at least limit) the damage done. TSMC is increasingly expanding its existing footprint to include manufacturing facilities that are either operational or in development in Japan, Germany, and the United States.

Strategic Partnerships

While hard tech industries like chipmaking are prone to disruption risk—like a startup developing new tech that puts existing offerings to shame—TSMC has a sufficiently bundled client list that will help protect the TSMC stock price from new entrants.

TSMC’s expansive and cutting-edge offerings also tend to sell within a multi-year contract, ensuring quality revenue forecasts.

Major partners include Apple, Qualcomm, Nvidia, AMD, and various other AI, computing, and even automotive industry leaders. In the words of Morningstar analyst Phelix Lee:

These far-reaching partnerships “readily justify hefty investments in new process nodes by convincing customers to share detailed roadmaps, while smaller foundries have to build facilities first and wait for orders that TSMC cannot fill.”

TSMC Stock Forecast: Expert Opinions

To get the latest TSMC stock projections, we talked to market analysts and obtained their outlook for TSMC stock for the near future.

Jeffrey Cooper, a technology author, blogger, and consultant, told Techopedia:

“TSMC is the world’s leading fab by far and is indispensable to the world for leading-edge chip manufacturing. Its main risk is geopolitical due to tensions between Taiwan and mainland China.”

Hugo Antoine, market & tech analyst at Yole, gave Techopedia his TSMC outlook from the technological perspective:

“TSMC won the FinFET race, particularly with 3nm, achieving a yield that leaves all competition behind. The next step is 2nm for 2025. GAAFET technology will be new for TSMC, while Samsung has already started mass production with it for its 3nm node and is facing challenges in improving yield.”

Antoine added that:

“It remains to be seen if TSMC will be able to maintain its excellent results with GAAFET. In any case, demand remains strong for the most advanced nodes, including 3nm and future 2nm and smaller, and TSMC is very well positioned to meet these challenges.”

Dan Sheehan, financial market strategist and operator of the Market Pulse newsletter, discussed with Techopedia how influential TSMC is for artificial intelligence.

“TSMC’s position as the world’s leading semiconductor foundry is pivotal in the AI race. Their advanced chip manufacturing capabilities, particularly in 3nm and 5nm technologies, power everything from Nvidia’s AI processors to Apple’s devices,” he said.

Relating that back to the numbers, Sheehan noted:

“With revenue up 36% YoY and margins at 57.8%, they’re demonstrating the immense value of being the backbone of AI infrastructure deployment.”

Latest TSMC Stock Predictions for 2024, 2025 & 2030

Is TSMC a ‘buy,’ ‘hold,’ or ‘sell’? Analysts’ consensus for TSMC stock prediction 2025 is generally that the current TSM stock price makes it worth a ‘strong buy,’ according to data aggregated by TipRanks as of October 24, 2024.

Within those polled analyst subgroups, TSMC stock predictions range from $150 to $250 over the next year, with the broad consensus at $205.

Slightly less optimistic, the TSM stock is rated a ‘moderate buy,’ according to the TSMC share price forecast of five Wall Street analysts, compiled by MarketBeat as of October 24, 2024.

While four have ‘buy’ recommendations in place, one sees it as a ‘hold.’

Morningstar has turned a lot more positive since its last TSMC stock forecast 2024, marking $215 as its fair price. It states that its TSMC price target has a medium level of uncertainty attached to it, noting the company has a wide economic moat.

Here’s where some specific firms stand on their one-year TSMC stock predictions:

How about the TSMC stock long-term forecast?

Looking ahead, WalletInvestor’s TSMC stock forecast 2025 projects that the stock’s performance will remain strong and that it could be valued at as much as $215.59 in one year.

The site’s five-year TSM stock forecast has the price rising to $265.65.

Most analysts are reluctant to look too far into the future, which is why a TSMC stock forecast 2030 is viewed as unrealistic by most observers.

In fact, the closest we can get to a TSMC stock price prediction 2030 is via CoinPriceForecast, which has predicted it will reach $718 by the end of 2030.

However, it’s worth noting that analysts’ and algorithm-based projections might prove to be wrong.

The Bottom Line: Should I Invest in TSMC?

If you’re bullish on AI’s long-term prospects but want to hit a wide range of tech applications, quality semiconductor stocks like Nvidia and TSMC are top picks as their sales streams diversify enough to offset sector-specific risk. But where TSMC offsets a risk, investors also assume the sizable geopolitical risk represented.

FAQs