Winners & Losers: Presidential Betting Strategy to Avoid an L

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I’ve written before about losing. It’s not the normal subject matter in gambling columns. And that is for good reason.

People want to read about seven-figure slot machine wins and poker-game windfalls. Those events have all the juice. Most people are not chasing stories about rotten results.

Right now, though, Americans are braced for losses. Our presidential election is said to be in a dead heat and so are the presidential betting odds, emotions are high to a berserk degree and stress here is through the roof.

Largely, it’s about fear of losing and the attendant anger deriving from a negative outcome. Nervous-wreck crybabies in my nation need to spend time playing poker.

They should imagine all their cash in the center of the table and an opponent hitting a two-outer. That’s a hand where only two possible cards can make him a winner.

Landing on one of those cards is known as a bad beat for the loser and might be the start of a heater for the winner.

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Don’t Say It’s Rigged

It sucks to be on the bad end of it. But, if you are not Phil Hellmuth, you take the loss decently. You definitely don’t make accusations of cheating or the game being rigged.

Hopefully, you can then comfort yourself in the reality that you made the right play and had a high probability of winning but got unlucky.

Losing is a reality of gambling. I’ll bet money (and risk blowing it) that people who talk about leaving America if their candidate fails to take the election do not spend a lot of time gambling.

Donald Trump, a sore loser of mammoth dimensions, most certainly does not. If he did, he’d take losses a lot better. Barack Obama is a poker player. No doubt, he knows what it’s like to shed cash when you think you should be raking it in.

Taking the L in gambling lays the groundwork for doing the same in life. It also makes you see the upside of finishing in second place.

After all, finishing second in a presidential election is still pretty damned good. How many people get in a position to do it? Hardly anyone.

And, post-election, there’ll be no shortage of payoffs in the business world and beyond for someone who loses a presidential election in style.

Winning $8 million After Losing

The situation reminds me of a conversation I had with Daniel Negreanu. He was talking about finishing second in the One Million for One Drop, a poker tournament with a buy-in of $1 million.

First place paid some $15 million. Second place rewarded $8.7 million.

Presidential Betting Strategy
Image: PokerGo

Negreanu, the also-ran in 2014, recently told me, “I won $8.7 million. In the moment, I saw myself losing $7 million. The next morning, though, I realized that I won nearly $9 million. I’ll be okay.”

I think that finishing second in the run for president this week will be worth more than $9 million.

Presidential Betting Strategy

Considering the Americans who are sniping at one another, they’re so emotional, so wrapped up, you’d think they themselves are running for office.

They’re pretty much pre-announcing that they’ll brim with misery if their candidate loses.

I think they should wager money on the election and bet against whoever they voted for. That way, there will be an upside one way or the other. Either your candidate wins, or you pocket cash.

As for myself, I cast my ballot and opted not to stress. Instead, I’ll remember sitting at a blackjack table with the count through the roof.

A max bet on the felt, 10,6 in front of me, no surrender permitted and the dealer showing a King. I’ll get through it regardless of how the cards fall.

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Michael Kaplan
Gambling Author and Journalist
Michael Kaplan
Gambling Author and Journalist

Michael Kaplan is a journalist based in New York City joined Techopedia in November 2023. He is the author of five books ("The Advantage Players" comes out in 2024) and has worked for publications that include Wired, GQ and the New York Post. He has written extensively on technology, gambling and business — with a particular interest in spots where all three intersect. His article on Kelly "Baccarat Machine" Sun and Phil Ivey is in development as a feature film.