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Tesla (TSLA) has unveiled the latest version of its Optimus robot, and, oh boy, it looks good. The personal Android walks upright with a near-natural gait, handles tasks requiring fine motor skills, and speaks with the sort of nuance and tonality you’d expect in a Zoom chat with a colleague.
On first pass, it appears the promise is living up to the hype—maybe even exceeding it. But what are the real prospects for success? At $20-30K per droid, will people be queuing up for a C3P0 of their own?
We asked the experts about the Tesla bot’s use cases, price points, and what it would take to spark a personal robot boom.
Key Takeaways
- Tesla revealed the latest iteration of its in-development Optimus personal robot, and it’s impressive.
- Optimus robots can walk, talk, and handle complex tasks with human-like deftness.
- While not ready for full production, the advances on display point to a sci-fi future that might now be within reach.
- But hurdles remain. Vendors like Tesla, Boston Dynamics, and Figure still need to demonstrate that robot assistants are smart or capable enough to operate independently.
- The use cases for humanoid robots are compelling, though. Will they support the growth of an Android-like robotics platform ecosystem?
Tesla Bot’s Expected Release Date
Availability for other companies: 2026
Consumer version: TBD
And production is slated to start soon. On October 10, 2024, Musk re-iterated the timeline he first suggested in 2023, which would see Optimus go into limited production next year for use in Tesla facilities. Assuming the initial rollout goes well, Musk says the bots could be available to other companies in 2026.
That means a consumer version could still be three to five years away.
Red Carpet Time for Tesla’s Optimus Robot
It’s been a cinematic fortnight for the Elon Musk empire. On September 30, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket arrived at the International Space Station (ISS) to rescue two NASA astronauts left high & dry by a malfunctioning Boeing Starliner.
Then this past Sunday SpaceX hit a new technological milestone when its ‘Mechzilla’ docking pincers successfully caught the descending heavy booster from a Starliner multi-stage rocket—making it officially ‘re-usable’.
The tower has caught the rocket!!
pic.twitter.com/CPXsHJBdUh— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 13, 2024
In between, Tesla’s ‘We, Robot‘ event saw the launch of the company’s Cybercab robotaxi and the Art Deco-inspired multi-passenger Robovan. But the real headline grabber was Optimus: Tesla’s ‘general-purpose robotic humanoid.’ A group of them strutted into the Hollywood event and interacted with attendees, untethered and largely unassisted.
Me, Robot https://t.co/qYaxztoSXA
— Tesla Optimus (@Tesla_Optimus) October 11, 2024
There’s now speculation that remote human operators were guiding the action. That would certainly explain the bots’ uncanny ability to speak, gesticulate, and emote so responsively when conversing with guests; but still, it’s hard not to be impressed by the dexterity and fluidity on display.
Even if the Optimi were basically demo units for a new kind of low-latency remote control, it was clearly advanced. The bots were able to pour drinks from behind a bar, play rock-paper-scissors, and mingle with the crowd—out ‘in the wild’ and minus a visible minder.
— Tesla Optimus (@Tesla_Optimus) October 11, 2024
What can Optimus robot do?
Musk was effusive: “It can be a teacher, babysit your kids, walk your dog, mow your lawn, get the groceries, just be your friend, serve drinks; whatever you can think of, it will do,” he told the crowd, adding his belief that Optimus will be “the biggest product ever—of any kind.”
From Costume to Prototype
Optimus robot has come a long way since it was first announced at Tesla AI Day in 2021. Back then, it was mainly a marketing gimmick brought to life by a dancer in a robot suit. Today, the arrival of a real personal android seems much more real.
Optimus serving drinks. https://t.co/Ut6dRxdphB pic.twitter.com/DTovL0WNqI
— The Humanoid Hub (@TheHumanoidHub) October 11, 2024
Tesla has steadily revealed small improvements to its droid, starting with videos showing simple arm movements in 2022, advancing a few months later to hand-sorting coloured blocks. Then in 2023 Optimus showed it could curl into different yoga positions. The latest version is an obvious upgrade, with directed mobility, faster walking speeds, 22-movement hand dexterity and advanced tactile sensors.
But can it operate with the independence you’d expect from a robot companion? Not yet, it seems. While Optimus’ humanoid form has become more cuddly, at least some of the demo version’s brain power was supplied by flesh & blood humans. Tesla’s answer is that Optimus in production will run the same AI used to orchestrate its fleet of robotaxis and robovans.
Robustness in Task Performance
To make the leap from a factory floor to the outside world won’t be easy. For starters, robot assistants will have to do what it says on the tin—assist with a myriad of personal tasks and conduct them in the numerous places people normally go.
Dr. Antonio Forte, a Senior Lecturer in Engineering at King’s College London (KCL), recently led the development of a new kind of compact circuit that promises to free up more thinking space in robotic ‘brains.’ He told Techopedia that, for all the advances made to date, personal robots still face literal barriers to mass adoption.
One is the ability to navigate a wide range of environments and terrains. Forte said:
“From what I have seen, robots have only been deployed in highly controlled environments, such as a house. There is no data on how well they’ll be able to move in a more natural and unpredictable environment.”
He also points to the ability to manipulate and carry complex and various objects. “The art of manipulation is a challenging one to master, and scientists have been working towards improving robot’s capabilities for decades now.
“Grabbing a ball is not the same as grabbing a bunch of tangled cables. Lifting a heavy box involves a series of controls spread across the robot body, in order to shift its weight and not tip over. All this is not banal and we have seen great progress in the last few years.”
He points to the breakthroughs from companies like Boston Dynamics but notes that “the demos we are fed are only the successful ones out of hundreds of fails.
“Robustness in task performance is something that will really dictate how well the robots can integrate in the environment and how fast they will meet acceptance from humans.”
Price & the Fear Factor
Rory Daniels, Senior Programme Manager for Emerging Technologies at techUK, told Techopedia that cost will be a significant hurdle.
“Humanoid robots are extremely expensive to design and manufacture, requiring the construction of sophisticated AI models, advanced manufacturing facilities, and precision-engineered machines sporting sensors, batteries, actuators, microchips, and materials that are both strong and lightweight. Costs are further increased due to a limited number of manufacturers and small production volumes.
“Only once humanoid robots are manufactured at scale will we begin to see widespread adoption by businesses and consumers.”
Elon Musk has suggested a starting price point for the Optimus Tesla robot of around $30K, though he was likely talking about a future when the production scale has been achieved. One can safely assume that there would also be premium features, service packages, and upgrades for additional fees.
Convincing the average person to shell out the equivalent of a new compact car will take some doing.
“Even if the capability and cost thresholds are achieved, consumer adoption will still depend upon public perceptions,” Daniels says. “As with any technology, consumers must feel comfortable enough to use it in their home, at their place of work, or on their body.”
To be blunt, If you’re going to have a robot in your home, it can’t be imposing, menacing, or just plain scary.
Daniels added:
“Science fiction writers like Isaac Asimov have typically painted dystopian futures in which the human race has inadvertently become subservient to intelligent machines. The widespread adoption of personal and humanoid robots will require companies, governments, and the media to present a positive vision for their use that puts safeguards, ethical implications, and human interests such as safety and wellbeing first.”
The Use Cases That Could Drive Demand
Though its full capabilities are still TBD, the relatable form factor is one area where Tesla’s Optimus robot might be setting a new standard. But even if companies like Tesla, Figure, and Boston Dynamics can make their personal robots seem cuddly, they’ll still need to convince consumers that a robot can perform tasks in ways that add value.
“There are currently few tasks in which humanoid robots tend to out-perform humans,” notes Daniels. “The obvious examples being those that are dangerous for people to safely or comfortably perform like waste management and mine exploration.”
However, he says the number of tasks will grow as robots become increasingly autonomous, adaptive, and intelligent.
Future use cases could include caregiving and heavy industry applications, among others.
Caregiving
KCL’s Forte says the obvious first case for robots is to become home assistants, “especially for elderly people that need continuous support in everyday tasks, such as object retrieval and manipulation, alongside social support for lonely individuals.”
Rory Daniels notes that in the UK, the number of UK residents older than 85 is expected to double to 2.6 million over the next 25 years:
“This increase in demand is exacerbated by an ongoing workforce crisis in the care sector where low pay and poor working conditions have resulted in more than 100,000 unfilled roles. Personal robots could be part of the solution.”
Early adopters include Japan, he says, where the government has spent over $300 million on the research and development of care robots since 2018.
“While high purchase costs currently favor residential care facilities over individuals, we can expect to see this trend begin to reverse as companies scale up production volumes and drive down unit costs.”
Heavy Industry
Daniels believes the setting where humanoid robots could have the biggest impact is on the factory floor.
“The UK is currently suffering from 15 years of slow productivity growth, due, in part, to a history of significant underinvestment in skills and capital. Humanoid robots offer a potential solution to this by increasingly performing industrial tasks such as manufacturing and assembly.”
KCL’s Forte agrees, though he notes that the ability of robots to grab different-sized objects and sort them has only been demonstrated when they are teleoperated—as Tesla’s Optimus likely was during the launch event.
“(in time) I expect them to be able to learn repeatable tasks quite robustly, moving between stations and introducing flexibility in the production and packaging tasks,” Forte said.
Crowd Control & Danger Zones
“Humanoid robots could be employed to guide people at events and avoid overcrowding,” says Forte, “which often results in dangerous circumstances. I expect them to eventually be able to communicate wirelessly and map the number of people at distinct locations, therefore predicting which areas might become overcrowded and diverting people (or traffic) accordingly to avoid this.”
Another use case could be inspections and sample collection from dangerous areas: “This could be anything from contaminated or polluted environments to active warzones.”
Retail
Finally, robots could end up helping out on the High Street.
“Robots could be employed anywhere from supermarkets to clothing retailers,” says Forte. “They could deal well with mapping the position of items in the shop, point customers in the right direction, retrieve specific items for them, and provide instant information about stock availability.”
The Bottom line
Powerhouse tech VC Andreesen Horowitz wrote in a recent blog that robotics could become a new computing platform, one with the potential to blossom into different ecosystems of hardware, apps, and operating systems—much as Android and Apple did with smartphones.
“Robots are computers that have yet to develop the depth in operating systems, developer platforms, and other components that help accelerate developer activity. Widely available, and horizontal, robotic hardware platforms and intelligence layers (could) drive down the cost of developing robotics applications.
“The result could be a unified platform for computers that have read/write access to the physical world, which is currently scattered across various sets of capabilities for vision, sensing, manipulation, and locomotion.”
That’s surely what Musk meant when he declared that Optimus could be “the biggest product ever.” As Apple and Meta struggle to make VR headsets the next iPhone, maybe personal robots will leapfrog them and get there first.
