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The Bitcoin bull run 2024 has been historic — the long-anticipated dream of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 has finally become a reality.
After getting the much-coveted exchange-traded funds (ETF) wrapper in January, Bitcoin (BTC) scaled new all-time highs of $108,268 on December 17, 2024.
In 2024, Bitcoin also completed its fourth halving cycle, and the crypto world is waiting to see if Bitcoin has the momentum to resume its rally.
Will BTC continue to surge this Bitcoin bull run and reach new highs in the next year? Let’s find out.
Key Takeaways
- Bitfinex analysts have forecasted that Bitcoin could at least reach $145,000 by mid-2025, potentially stretching to $200,000 under favorable conditions.
- The firm said that any corrections in 2025 will remain mild, thanks to institutional inflows.
- The global rate cut cycle and re-election of Donald Trump will also directly influence how the Bitcoin bull run plays out.
- As for Bitcoin price predictions, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan sees Bitcoin at $250,000 by 2028.
State of the Bitcoin Bull Run: Bitcoin Prices Surpass $100,000
According to Singapore-based crypto research firm 10x Research, Bitcoin prices have historically seen a median return of about 40% over three months after hitting six-month highs, which we explore in our crypto bull run history.
Bitcoin, as of late December 2024, surpassed and then bounced around the $100,000 key milestone — the BTC/PIZZA ratio has changed a lot over the years.
Approximately $36 billion has flowed into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs since their launch in January, according to data from Farside Investors.
“The BTC ETFs are one of the largest cohorts of Bitcoin holders at over 1.13 million BTC,” the analysts stated.
The analysts said their minimum price estimates “stand at $145,000 by mid-2025, potentially stretching to $200,000 under favorable conditions.”
They added that if Bitcoin mirrors the 2021 cycle, with a roughly 40 percent increase above its moving averages, it could potentially “reach around $339,000” during this cycle.
In a December 17 market report, Bitfinex analysts mentioned growing institutional interest in Bitcoin as a key driver behind the recent surge, as evidenced by record inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Bitcoin ETFs Continue Rising
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have proved to be a huge hit since their launch in January 2024. At the time, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) became the fastest-growing ETF in history after hitting $1 billion in assets under management (AUM) within its first four days of trading.
Fast forward to late December 2024, IBIT has grown to an AUM of over $56 billion, while all spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively amassed an AUM of over $117 billion, Coinglass data showed.
“BlackRock’s gold ETF took 20 years to reach $33B AUM, while their #Bitcoin ETF nearly doubled gold’s AUM in less than a year,” Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, said in a recent post on X.
BlackRock's gold ETF took 20 years to reach $33B AUM, while their #Bitcoin ETF nearly doubled gold's AUM in less than a year. pic.twitter.com/CAkxX2xQZo
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) December 18, 2024
According to Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. collectively are expected to soon hold over 1 million BTC tokens and can surpass its pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, as the top Bitcoin holder in the world.
Among the growing list of institutions gaining exposure to Bitcoin via spot ETFs are the U.S. pension fund manager State of Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB) and South Korea’s National Pension Service.
How Long Will the Bitcoin Bull Run Last?
Let’s now look at two important factors that could affect the length of the BTC bull run across 2025 — the ongoing U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut cycle and the repercussions from the November 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Rate Cuts to Whet Risk Appetite
After seeing steep rate hikes over the past two years, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) started its rate cut cycle in September 2024 when interest rates were reduced by 25 basis points to 5%.
Rate cuts are seen as bullish events for risk asset markets. In theory, lower borrowing costs should boost hiring and spending and increase risk-taking among investors.
More recently, on December 18, the Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point, the third consecutive reduction.
While the news is good for risk assets like Bitcoin, the central bank came with a cautionary tone about additional cuts in coming years, which adversely impacted the crypto market.
In delivering the 25 basis point cut, the Fed indicated that it probably would only lower twice more in 2025.
Assuming quarter-point increments, officials indicated two more reductions in 2026 and another in 2027. Over the longer term, the committee sees the “neutral” funds rate at 3%.
“The consensus stems from signals provided by the Fed during previous meetings,” Ruslan Lienkha, Chief of Markets at Swiss-based fintech platform YouHodler, said following the latest rate cut announcement.
“On one hand, the Fed initiated the rate-cutting process with a bold 0.5% reduction, signaling its commitment to easing monetary policy. On the other hand, it must adopt a measured approach to avoid reigniting inflation. This balancing act underpins the market’s expectation for a more gradual pace of rate reductions.”
U.S. Presidential Elections: Trump Victory Was Positive for Crypto
The U.S. presidential election was arguably the most important Bitcoin bull run news of the year and defines the crypto bull run for 2024 and 2025.
Trump has made promises that were music to the ears of the Bitcoin community. They included creating a “strategic national Bitcoin stockpile” and firing U.S. Securities and Commission Chair Gary Gensler “on Day One”.
Gensler resigned days later, and his resignation will become effective on January 20, 2025.
With Trump winning a second term as president, the 2024 Bitcoin bull run is most likely to extend into 2025 on expectations of favorable regulations toward the crypto industry.
Even as Trump works out his regulatory framework, headline-baiting moves such as Elon Musk sharing plans at a Trump Rally for a new initiative called the “Department of Government Efficiency”, (aka DOGE) are all helping push crypto further into the mainstream.
There has also been a broader trend of states exploring the integration of Bitcoin into their financial systems, aiming to leverage the cryptocurrency’s potential as a hedge against inflation and a tool for financial innovation.
On December 17, Ohio became the latest US state to consider adding Bitcoin to its treasury reserves, following similar moves by Texas and Pennsylvania to establish Bitcoin reserves.
Bitcoin Outlook in Future Years
As we prepare for 2025, we also examine some longer-term BTC price predictions, along with analysts giving their next Bitcoin bull run predictions.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Sees Bitcoin at $250,000
In one of his weekly memos last April, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan penned his thoughts on five predictions to expect by the next Bitcoin halving in 2028.
- Bitcoin’s volatility will decline by 50% as the crypto becomes more institutionalized. The emergence of the spot BTC ETF is a primary driver of this trend.
- As a result of lower volatility, investors will consider it “normal to have 5% or more of your portfolio in Bitcoin.”
- Spot BTC ETFs will draw in over $200 billion.
- Central banks will add Bitcoin to their holdings.
- The Bitcoin bull run prediction for 2028 is above $250,000.
Coinshares Expects Bitcoin Price to Rise to $133,000
Crypto asset manager Coinshares used “fundamental investment case for Bitcoin” and “savings as the key driver of inflows” to develop a model for Bitcoin valuation,
Coinshares said the model expected over 669 million individuals to own Bitcoin by 2028. With such an investor base, a 1% allocation of gross national income per person (GNI) would increase Bitcoin’s market cap by 10 times, said Coinshares.
The model estimated Bitcoin prices to hit $133,000 by 2028, which according to Coinshares’ is a “lower limit” estimate.
The Bottom Line
We will end this article by reminding readers that financial markets are unpredictable. Experts can be wrong in their Bitcoin price predictions.
Therefore, it is important to do your own due diligence before investing and never invest more than you can afford to lose. The chaotic price movements can humble even the smartest and most experienced players.
